Exam 18: Forecasting

A company wants to forecast demand using the weighted moving average. If the company uses two prior yearly sales values , and we want to weight year 2018 at 10 percent and year 2019 at 90 percent, which of the following is the weighted moving average forecast for year 2020?

In forecasting, RSFE stands for "running sum of forecast errors."

A good forecaster is one who develops special skills and experience at one forecasting technique and is capable of applying it to widely diverse situations.

A company has actual unit demand for four consecutive years of 100, 105, 135, and 150. The respective forecasts were 120 for all four years. Which of the following is the resulting MAD value that can be computed from these data?

Experience and trial and error are the simplest ways to choose weights for the weighted moving average forecasting model.

A company has calculated its running sum of forecast errors to be 500, and its mean absolute deviation is exactly 35. Which of the following is the company's tracking signal?

A company wants to forecast demand using the weighted moving average. If the company uses three prior yearly sales values , and we want to weight year 2014 at 30 percent, year 2018 at 30 percent, and year 2019 at 40 percent, which of the following is the weighted moving average forecast for year 2020?

Which of the following is used to describe the degree of error?

A tracking signal (TS) can be calculated using the arithmetic sum of forecast deviations divided by the MAD.

Time series analysis is based on the idea that data relating to past demand can be used to predict future demand.

Regression is a functional relationship between two or more correlated variables, where one variable is used to predict another.

CPFR is an Internet tool to coordinate forecasting, production, and purchasing in a firm's supply chain.

In most cases, demand for products or services can be broken into several components. Which of the following is considered a component of demand?

In general, which forecasting time frame best identifies seasonal effects?

If a firm produced a product that was experiencing growth in demand, the smoothing constant alpha (reaction rate to differences) used in an exponential smoothing forecasting model would tend to be which of the following?

Qualitative forecasting techniques generally take advantage of the knowledge of experts and therefore do not require much judgment.

In most cases, demand for products or services can be broken into several components. Which of the following is considered a component of demand?

Multiple regression analysis uses several regression models to generate a forecast.

In general, which forecasting time frame compensates most effectively for random variation and short-term changes?

RSFE in forecasting stands for "reliable safety function error."