Exam 11: Managing Demand and Forecasting

Table 11.8. Month No. Machines Sold 1 50 2 65 3 52 4 56 5 55 6 60 -Use the information in Table 11.8. Calculate the MAD for months 4 through 6 for the three- month moving average forecasts.

Use the following quarterly data (sales in units) to develop the seasonal indexes: Quarter Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 1 51 62 74 2 103 124 133 3 172 199 222 4 296 332 367 Total 622 717 796 The manager predicts that the demand for next year will be 900. What are the quarterly forecasts for next year?

Which one of the following is an example of a time series forecasting technique?

The judgment methods of forecasting are to be used for purposes of

The owner of the Crossed Connections electronic appliance repair shop is enjoying increasing demand for her services. Total weekly demand, measured in standard labor hours, has been increasing. The owner uses trend- adjusted exponential smoothing to make forecasts for the following week so that she can plan work schedules and staffing levels. She has the following data to prepare her forecast: A_{t- 1} = 100 hours α = 0.30 T_{t- 1} = 10 hours β = 0.10 D_t = 120 hours Assuming she is now at the end of week t, what is the forecast for week t + 1?

The stability of a moving average forecast is inversely related to the number of periods included in the moving average.

Distinguish a dependent variable from an independent variable.

Which forecasting technique would you consider for technological forecasts?

Indicate the possible range for alpha and explain the significance of where this value is set for simple exponential smoothing.

The Acme Computer Company has recorded sales of one of its products for a six- week period: Week Sales 1 25 2 23 3 20 4 22 5 23 6 24 Using the three- week moving average method, forecast sales for week 7.

Table 11.1. -Use the information in Table 11.1. Your boss has asked you to find a good technique to forecast short- term demand for an important product. You have decided to test the following four techniques against the historical data already given: -Three- month simple moving average -Three- month weighted moving average, with weight of 0.6 for the most recent month, 0.3 for the second- most- recent month, and 0.1 for the third- most- recent month -Three- month weighted moving average, with weights of 0.5 for the most recent month, 0.3 for the second- most- recent month, and 0.2 for the third- most- recent month -Exponential smoothing (a = 0.3 and the forecast for March was 55) Use each of the four techniques to forecast April through August, and then use the five months of forecasts to calculate MAD. Round all forecasts to the nearest whole number just before doing your MAD calculations. Which of the four techniques is best in terms of MAD?

The tracking signal is a measure that indicates whether a method of forecasting is accurately predicting actual change in demand.

Table 11.3 Week Patient Arrivals 1 401 2 380 3 411 4 384 -Use the information in Table 11.3. Calculate the exponential smoothing forecast for week 5 using a = 0.10 and F₄ = 410.

Explain how the value of alpha affects forecasts produced by exponential smoothing.

Doctors, dentists, lawyers, and automobile repair shops are examples of service providers that use appointment systems.

Discuss the cumulative sum of forecast errors (CFE).

_________ methods use historical data on independent variables to predict demand.

Explain the coefficient of determination.

Table 11.7. Month Units Sold (00) 1 150 2 145 3 160 4 180 5 220 -Use the information in Table 11.7. The forecast for month 5 is

A(n) _________ is an accumulation of customer orders that a manufacturer has promised for delivery at some future date.