Table 11.9 \[\begin{array} { | c | c | c | } \hline \text { Quarter } & \begin{array} { c } \text { Forecasted } \\ \text { Demand } \\ \text { (Units) } \end{array} & \begin{array} { c } \text { Actual } \\ \text { Demand } \\ \text { (Units) } \end{array} \\ \hline 1 & 85 & 95 \\ 2 & 55 & 55 \\ 3 & 70 & 45 \\ 4 & 60 & 75 \\ \hline \end{array}\] -Use the information in Table 11.9. What is the cumulative sum of forecast errors for the data?

A) 0 units B) greater than 0, but less than or equal to 25 units C) greater than 25, but less than or equal to 50 units D) greater than 50 units A) 0 units B) greater than 0, but less than or equal to 25 units C) greater than 25, but less than or equal to 50 units D) greater than 50 units

Demand for a new five- inch color TV during the last six periods has been as follows: \[\begin{array} { | l | l | } \hline \text { Period } & \begin{array} { l } \text { Demand } \\ \text { (Units) } \end{array} \\ \hline 1 & 109 \\ 2 & 110 \\ 3 & 103 \\ 4 & 170 \\ 5 & 81 \\ 6 & 130 \\ \hline \end{array}\] What is the forecast for period 7 if the company uses the simple moving average method with n = 4?

A) less than or equal to 115 B) greater than 115 but less than or equal to 120 C) greater than 120 but less than or equal to 125 D) greater than 125 A) less than or equal to 115 B) greater than 115 but less than or equal to 120 C) greater than 120 but less than or equal to 125 D) greater than 125

Table 11.3 \[\begin{array} { | c | c | } \hline \text { Week } & \begin{array} { c } \text { Patient } \\ \text { Arrivals } \end{array} \\ \hline 1 & 401 \\ 2 & 380 \\ 3 & 411 \\ 4 & 384 \\ \hline \end{array}\] -Use the information in Table 11.3. If the actual number of patients is 415 in week 5, what is the forecast for week 6 using a three- week moving average forecast?

A) less than or equal to 390 B) greater than 390 but less than or equal to 398 C) greater than 398 but less than or equal to 406 D) greater than 406 A) less than or equal to 390 B) greater than 390 but less than or equal to 398 C) greater than 398 but less than or equal to 406 D) greater than 406

The management of a company specializing in securities analysis has been using two forecasting methods to follow a new stock issue. Forecast Method \[\begin{array} { | l | l | l | l | } \hline \text { Month } & \begin{array} { c } \text { Exponential } \\ \text { Smoothing } \end{array} & \text { Judgmental } & \begin{array} { c } \text { Actual } \\ \text { Price } \end{array} \\ \hline 1 & 48 & 50 & 51 \\ 2 & 50 & 52 & 53 \\ 3 & 51 & 55 & 54 \\ \hline \end{array}\] Which one of the following statements is TRUE?

A) Based on MAD, the judgmental method is more accurate. B) Based on CFE, the bias of the judgment forecasts is larger than the bias of the exponential smoothing forecasts. C) Based on MAD, the exponential smoothing approach is more accurate. D) Based on CFE, the bias of the exponential smoothing forecasts is steadily improving. A) Based on MAD, the judgmental method is more accurate. B) Based on CFE, the bias of the judgment forecasts is larger than the bias of the exponential smoothing forecasts. C) Based on MAD, the exponential smoothing approach is more accurate. D) Based on CFE, the bias of the exponential smoothing forecasts is steadily improving.

Exam 11: Managing Demand and Forecasting

changes in the dependent variable must take place with sufficient lead time before the associated change in the independent variables, for causal model to be useful as a forecasting tool.

(True/False)

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Question 121

Describe the term trend projection with regression.

(Essay)

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Question 122

Table 11.9 Quarter Forecasted Demand (Units) Actual Demand (Units) 1 85 95 2 55 55 3 70 45 4 60 75 -Use the information in Table 11.9. What is the cumulative sum of forecast errors for the data?

(Multiple Choice)

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Question 123

Which one of the following statements about the patterns of a demand series is FALSE?

(Multiple Choice)

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Question 124

Forecasts will always be below or above the actual demand where a trend is present, unless exponential smoothing with two components is applied.

(True/False)

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Question 125

Table 11.6. -Use the information in Table 11.6. Use an exponential smoothing model with a smoothing parameter of 0.30 to forecast sales for year 5.

(Multiple Choice)

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Question 126

The Delphi method of forecasting is useful when

(Multiple Choice)

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Question 127

Demand for a new five- inch color TV during the last six periods has been as follows: Period Demand (Units) 1 109 2 110 3 103 4 170 5 81 6 130 What is the forecast for period 7 if the company uses the simple moving average method with n = 4?

(Multiple Choice)

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Question 128

Doctors, dentists, lawyers, and automobile repair shops are examples of service providers that use _________

(Short Answer)

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Question 129

Table 11.3 Week Patient Arrivals 1 401 2 380 3 411 4 384 -Use the information in Table 11.3. If the actual number of patients is 415 in week 5, what is the forecast for week 6 using a three- week moving average forecast?

(Multiple Choice)

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Question 130

The management of a company specializing in securities analysis has been using two forecasting methods to follow a new stock issue. Forecast Method Month Exponential Smoothing Judgmental Actual Price 1 48 50 51 2 50 52 53 3 51 55 54 Which one of the following statements is TRUE?

(Multiple Choice)

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Question 131

Describe three popular measures of forecast accuracy.

(Essay)

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Question 132

Which one of the following time series forecasting methods will generate the most accurate forecasts when demands have a consistent trend pattern?

(Multiple Choice)

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Question 133

Calculate three forecasts using the following data. First, for periods 4 through 11, develop the exponentially smoothed forecasts using a forecast for period 3 (F3) of 120.0 and an alpha of 0.3. Second, calculate the 3- period moving average forecast for periods 4 through 11. Third, calculate the weighted moving average for periods 4 through 11, using weights of .60, .30, and .10. Calculate the mean absolute deviation (MAD) and the cumulative sum of forecast error (CFE) for each forecasting procedure. Which forecasting procedure would you select? Why? Month Demand 1 120 2 115 3 125 4 119 5 127 6 114 7 120 8 124 9 116 10 137

(Essay)

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Question 134

Which one of the following statements about forecasting is FALSE?

(Multiple Choice)

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Question 135

Only a handful of organizations experience seasonal demand for their goods or services.

(True/False)

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Question 136

When using linear regression for forecasting, the independent variable is the variable that one wants to forecast.

(True/False)

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Question 137

_________ is a causal method of forecasting in which one variable is related to one or more variables by a linear equation.

(Short Answer)

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Question 138

When the underlying mean of a time series is very stable and there are no trend, cyclical, or seasonal influences,

(Multiple Choice)

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Question 139

Which one of the following statements about forecasting is FALSE?

(Multiple Choice)

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Question 140

changes in the dependent variable must take place with sufficient lead time before the associated change in the independent variables, for causal model to be useful as a forecasting tool.

Describe the term trend projection with regression.

Table 11.9 Quarter Forecasted Demand (Units) Actual Demand (Units) 1 85 95 2 55 55 3 70 45 4 60 75 -Use the information in Table 11.9. What is the cumulative sum of forecast errors for the data?

Which one of the following statements about the patterns of a demand series is FALSE?

Forecasts will always be below or above the actual demand where a trend is present, unless exponential smoothing with two components is applied.

Table 11.6. -Use the information in Table 11.6. Use an exponential smoothing model with a smoothing parameter of 0.30 to forecast sales for year 5.

The Delphi method of forecasting is useful when

Demand for a new five- inch color TV during the last six periods has been as follows: Period Demand (Units) 1 109 2 110 3 103 4 170 5 81 6 130 What is the forecast for period 7 if the company uses the simple moving average method with n = 4?

Doctors, dentists, lawyers, and automobile repair shops are examples of service providers that use _________

Table 11.3 Week Patient Arrivals 1 401 2 380 3 411 4 384 -Use the information in Table 11.3. If the actual number of patients is 415 in week 5, what is the forecast for week 6 using a three- week moving average forecast?

The management of a company specializing in securities analysis has been using two forecasting methods to follow a new stock issue. Forecast Method Month Exponential Smoothing Judgmental Actual Price 1 48 50 51 2 50 52 53 3 51 55 54 Which one of the following statements is TRUE?

Describe three popular measures of forecast accuracy.

Which one of the following time series forecasting methods will generate the most accurate forecasts when demands have a consistent trend pattern?

Which one of the following statements about forecasting is FALSE?

Only a handful of organizations experience seasonal demand for their goods or services.

When using linear regression for forecasting, the independent variable is the variable that one wants to forecast.

_________ is a causal method of forecasting in which one variable is related to one or more variables by a linear equation.

When the underlying mean of a time series is very stable and there are no trend, cyclical, or seasonal influences,

Which one of the following statements about forecasting is FALSE?

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