Exam 18: Forecasting

A company has actual unit demand for four consecutive years of 100, 105, 135, and 150.The respective forecasts were 120 for all four years.Which of the following is the resulting MAD value that can be computed from these data?

As a consultant, you have been asked to generate a unit demand forecast for a product for year 2014 using exponential smoothing.Actual demand in year 2013 was 950, but the forecast for that year was 1,060.Using these data and a smoothing constant alpha of 0.5, what is the resulting year 2014 forecast value? ________________________________________

In business forecasting, what is usually considered a short-term time period?

A restriction in using linear regression is that it assumes that past data and future projections fall on or near a straight line.

If a firm produced a product that was experiencing growth in demand, the smoothing constant alpha (reaction rate to differences) used in an exponential smoothing forecasting model would tend to be which of the following?

The weighted moving average forecasting model uses a weighting scheme to modify the effects of individual data points.This is its major advantage over the simple moving average model.

Given a prior forecast demand value of 230, a related actual demand value of 250, and a smoothing constant alpha of 0.1, what is the exponential smoothing forecast value for the following period?

A company wants to forecast demand using the simple moving average.If the company uses three prior yearly sales values , what is the simple moving average forecast for year 2014? __________________________________

The exponential smoothing method requires which of the following data to forecast the future?

In decomposition of time series data, it is relatively easy to identify cycles and autocorrelation components.

A tracking signal (TS) can be calculated using the arithmetic sum of forecast deviations divided by the MAD.

What do we call forecasts needed for how a firm operates on a day-to-day basis? _______________________________________

Which of the following forecasting methodologies is considered a time series forecasting technique?

In the weighted moving average forecasting model, the weights must add up to one times the number of data points.

A company has calculated its running sum of forecast errors to be 400, and its mean absolute deviation is exactly 25.What is the company's tracking signal? _________________________________

A company has calculated its running sum of forecast errors to be 500, and its mean absolute deviation is exactly 35.Which of the following is the company's tracking signal?

In general, which forecasting time frame is best to detect general trends?

Which of the following forecasting methodologies is considered a causal forecasting technique?

In time series data depicting demand, which of the following is not considered a component of demand variation?

Multiple regression analysis uses several regression models to generate a forecast.