Question 1

Additive seasonal variation in time series data means a forecast can only be found by multiplying the trend times the seasonal factor (or index).

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 2

In exponential smoothing,it is desirable to use a higher smoothing constant when forecasting demand for a product experiencing high growth.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 3

Regression is a functional relationship between two or more correlated variables,where one variable is used to predict another.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 4

Given a prior forecast demand value of 230,a related actual demand value of 250 and a smoothing constant alpha of 0.1,what is the exponential smoothing forecast value for the following period?

Accepted Answer

A) 230 
B) 232 
C) 238 
D) 248 
E) 250 
A) 230 
B) 232 
C) 238 
D) 248 
E) 250

Question 5

People with no or modest analytical backgrounds can make good use of causal regression forecasting models.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 6

Cyclical influences on demand are often expressed graphically as a linear function that is either upward or downward sloping.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 7

"Dynamic models,usually computer-based,that allow the forecaster to make assumptions about the internal variables and external environment in the model" is a definition for which of the following forecasting methodologies?

Accepted Answer

A) Causal 
B) Simulation 
C) Focus forecasting 
D) Shiskin Time series 
E) Market research 
A) Causal 
B) Simulation 
C) Focus forecasting 
D) Shiskin Time series 
E) Market research

Question 8

A company wants to generate a forecast for unit demand for year 2009 using exponential smoothing.The actual demand in year 2008 was 120.The forecast demand in year 2008 was 110.Using this data and a smoothing constant alpha of 0.1,which of the following is the resulting year 2009 forecast value?

Accepted Answer

A) 100 
B) 110 
C) 111 
D) 114 
E) 120 
A) 100 
B) 110 
C) 111 
D) 114 
E) 120

Question 9

RSFE in forecasting stands for "readable safety function for error detection".

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 10

If you were selecting a forecasting model based on MAD,which of the following MAD values reflects the most accurate model?

Accepted Answer

A) 0.2 
B) 0.8 
C) 1.0 
D) 10.0 
E) 100.0 
A) 0.2 
B) 0.8 
C) 1.0 
D) 10.0 
E) 100.0

Question 11

The exponential smoothing model permits non-linear forecast values.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 12

Which of the following forecasting methodologies is considered a time series forecasting technique?

Accepted Answer

A) Box Jenkins technique 
B) Econometrics 
C) Leading indicators 
D) Historical analogy 
E) Simulation 
A) Box Jenkins technique 
B) Econometrics 
C) Leading indicators 
D) Historical analogy 
E) Simulation

Question 13

Describe the collaborative planning,forecasting and replenishment (CPFR)technique?

Accepted Answer

CPFR is described on pages 497-499 in th

Question 14

You are hired as a consultant to advise a small firm on forecasting methodology.Based on your research you find the company has a MAD of 3.Its wants to have a 99.7 percent control limits on its forecasting system.It's most recent tracking signal value is 15.What should be your report to the company?

Accepted Answer

A) The forecasting model is operating acceptably 
B) The forecasting model is out of control and needs to be corrected 
C) The MAD value is incorrect 
D) The upper control value is less than 20 
E) The company is using an inappropriate forecasting methodology 
A) The forecasting model is operating acceptably 
B) The forecasting model is out of control and needs to be corrected 
C) The MAD value is incorrect 
D) The upper control value is less than 20 
E) The company is using an inappropriate forecasting methodology

Question 15

The weighted moving average forecasting model uses a weighting scheme to modify the effects of individual data points.This is its major advantage over the simple moving average model.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 16

Cyclical influences on demand may come from occurrences such as political elections,war or economic conditions.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 17

As a consultant you have been asked to generate a unit demand forecast for a product for year 2009 using exponential smoothing.The actual demand in year 2008 was 750.The forecast demand in year 2008 was 960.Using this data and a smoothing constant alpha of 0.3,which of the following is the resulting year 2009 forecast value?

Accepted Answer

A) 766 
B) 813 
C) 897 
D) 1,023 
E) 1,120 
A) 766 
B) 813 
C) 897 
D) 1,023 
E) 1,120

Question 18

In most cases,demand for products or services can be broken into several components.Which of the following is not considered a component of demand?

Accepted Answer

A) Average demand for a period 
B) A trend 
C) Seasonal elements 
D) Past demand 
E) Autocorrelation 
A) Average demand for a period 
B) A trend 
C) Seasonal elements 
D) Past demand 
E) Autocorrelation

Question 19

Which of the following is a possible source of bias error in forecasting?

Accepted Answer

A) Failing to include the right variables 
B) Using the wrong forecasting method 
C) Employing less sophisticated analysts than necessary 
D) Using incorrect data 
E) Using standard deviation rather than MAD 
A) Failing to include the right variables 
B) Using the wrong forecasting method 
C) Employing less sophisticated analysts than necessary 
D) Using incorrect data 
E) Using standard deviation rather than MAD

Question 20

Independent demand is the demand for a product or service caused by the demand for other products or services.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Exam 15: Demand Management and Forecasting

Additive seasonal variation in time series data means a forecast can only be found by multiplying the trend times the seasonal factor (or index).

In exponential smoothing,it is desirable to use a higher smoothing constant when forecasting demand for a product experiencing high growth.

Regression is a functional relationship between two or more correlated variables,where one variable is used to predict another.

Given a prior forecast demand value of 230,a related actual demand value of 250 and a smoothing constant alpha of 0.1,what is the exponential smoothing forecast value for the following period?

People with no or modest analytical backgrounds can make good use of causal regression forecasting models.

Cyclical influences on demand are often expressed graphically as a linear function that is either upward or downward sloping.

"Dynamic models,usually computer-based,that allow the forecaster to make assumptions about the internal variables and external environment in the model" is a definition for which of the following forecasting methodologies?

A company wants to generate a forecast for unit demand for year 2009 using exponential smoothing.The actual demand in year 2008 was 120.The forecast demand in year 2008 was 110.Using this data and a smoothing constant alpha of 0.1,which of the following is the resulting year 2009 forecast value?

RSFE in forecasting stands for "readable safety function for error detection".

If you were selecting a forecasting model based on MAD,which of the following MAD values reflects the most accurate model?

The exponential smoothing model permits non-linear forecast values.

Which of the following forecasting methodologies is considered a time series forecasting technique?

Describe the collaborative planning,forecasting and replenishment (CPFR)technique?

The weighted moving average forecasting model uses a weighting scheme to modify the effects of individual data points.This is its major advantage over the simple moving average model.

Cyclical influences on demand may come from occurrences such as political elections,war or economic conditions.

In most cases,demand for products or services can be broken into several components.Which of the following is not considered a component of demand?

Which of the following is a possible source of bias error in forecasting?

Independent demand is the demand for a product or service caused by the demand for other products or services.

Introduction to the Field

Operations and Supply Strategy

Project Management

Product and Service Design

Strategic Capacity Management

Process Analysis

Manufacturing Processes

Service Processes

Six Sigma Quality

Supply-Chain Strategy

Logistics and Facility Location

Lean Manufacturing

Operations Consulting Reengineering

Enterprise Resource Planning Systems

Aggregate Sales and Operations Planning

Inventory Control

Material Requirements Planning

Scheduling

Constraint Management

Linear Programming Using the Excel Solver

Learning Curves

Job Design Work Measurement

Waiting Line Analysis

Process Capability and Spc

Simulation

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