Exam 15: Demand Management and Forecasting

Which of the following are suggestions for developing a focus forecasting system?

In a forecasting model using simple moving average the shorter the time span used for calculating the moving average,the closer the average follows volatile trends.

Which of the following is the portion of observations you would expect to see lying within a plus or minus 2 MAD range?

A central premise of exponential smoothing is that more recent data is less indicative of the future than data from the distant past.

A company has actual unit demand for three consecutive years of 124,126 and 135.The respective forecasts for the same three years are 120,120 and 130.Which of the following is the resulting MAD value that can be computed from this data?

Random errors can be defined as those that cannot be explained by the forecast model being used.

When forecast errors occur in a normally distributed pattern,the ratio of the mean absolute deviation to the standard deviation is 2 to 1 or 2 x MAD = 1 standard deviation.

The simple moving average model permits non-linear forecast values.

Which of the following forecasting methods can be used for short-term forecasting?

You are using an exponential smoothing model for forecasting.The running sum of the forecast error statistics (RSFE)are calculated each time a forecast is generated.You find the last RSFE to be 34.Originally the forecasting model used was selected because it's relatively low MAD of 0.4.To determine when it is time to re-evaluate the usefulness of the exponential smoothing model you compute tracking signals.Which of the following is the resulting tracking system?

In a forecasting model using simple exponential smoothing the data pattern should remain stationary.

Which of the following forecasting methodologies is considered a qualitative forecasting technique?

In business forecasting,what is usually considered a long-term time period?

A good forecaster is one who develops special skills and experience at one forecasting technique and is capable of applying it to widely diverse situations.

In most cases,demand for products or services can be broken into several components.Which of the following is considered a component of demand?

A company has a MAD of 10.Its wants to have a 99.7 percent control limits on its forecasting system.It's most recent tracking signal value is 31.What can the company conclude from this information?

Which of the following is not one of the basic types of forecasting?

Box-Jenkins forecasting models deliver very precise forecasts and are most useful to people with unsophisticated analytical backgrounds.

Simple exponential smoothing lags changes in demand.

Heavy sales of umbrellas during a rain storm is an example of which of the following?