Exam 3: Forecasting

A new car dealer has been using exponential smoothing with an alpha of .2 to forecast weekly new car sales.Given the data below, would a naive forecast have provided greater accuracy? Explain.Assume an initial exponential forecast of 60 units in period 2 .

In business, forecasts are the basis for:

Given an actual demand of 105, a forecasted value of 97, and an alpha of .4, the simple exponential smoothing forecast for the next period would be:

What is this month's forecast using exponential smoothing with alpha = .2, if August's forecast was 145?

Given the data below, develop a forecast for period 6 using a four-period weighted moving average and weights of .4, .3, .2 and .1

In order to increase the responsiveness of a forecast made using the moving average technique, the number of data points in the average should be:

MAD is equal to the square root of MSE which is why we calculate the easier MSE and then calculate the more difficult MAD.

Minimizing the sum of the squared deviations around the line is called:

Which is not a characteristic of simple moving averages applied to time series data?

Which of the following might be used to indicate the cyclical component of a forecast?

Moving average forecasting techniques do the following:

Time series techniques involve identification of explanatory variables that can be used to predict future demand.

What is the forecast for this year using a four-year simple moving average?

What is this week's forecast using the least squares trend line for these data?

If a pattern appears when a dependent variable is plotted against time, one should use time series analysis instead of regression analysis.

Curvilinear and multiple regression procedures permit us to extend associative models to relationships that are non-linear or involve more than one predictor variable.

Trend adjusted exponential smoothing uses double smoothing to add twice the forecast error to last period's actual demand.

Which is not a characteristic of exponential smoothing?

In trend-adjusted exponential smoothing, the trend adjusted forecast (TAF) consists of:

In the "additive" model for seasonality, seasonality is expressed as a ______________ adjustment to the average; in the multiplicative model, seasonality is expressed as a __________ adjustment to the average.