Question 1

A smoothing constant of .1 will cause an exponential smoothing forecast to react more quickly to a sudden change than a smoothing constant value of .3.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 2

For new products in a strong growth mode, a low alpha will minimize forecast errors when using exponential smoothing techniques.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 3

Bias exists when forecasts tend to be greater or less than the actual values of time series.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 4

Demand for the last four months was:

Accepted Answer

@#IMG-DLM& A) Predict demand for July using each o

Question 5

What is this year's forecast using exponential smoothing with alpha = .25, if last year's smoothed forecast was 45?

Accepted Answer

The answer of What is this year's forecast using exponential...

Question 6

Forecasts of future demand are used by operations people to plan capacity.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 7

A manager uses the following equation to predict monthly receipts: Yt = 40,000 + 150t.What is the forecast for July if t = 0 in April of this year?

Accepted Answer

A) 40,450 
B) 40,600 
C) 42,100 
D) 42,250 
E) 42,400 
A) 40,450 
B) 40,600 
C) 42,100 
D) 42,250 
E) 42,400

Question 8

The naive forecast can serve as a quick and easy standard of comparison against which to judge the cost and accuracy of other techniques.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 9

Using the latest observation in a sequence of data to forecast the next period is:

Accepted Answer

A) a moving average forecast 
B) a naive forecast 
C) an exponentially smoothed forecast 
D) an associative forecast 
E) regression analysis 
A) a moving average forecast 
B) a naive forecast 
C) an exponentially smoothed forecast 
D) an associative forecast 
E) regression analysis

Question 10

What is this year's seasonally adjusted forecast for each season?

Accepted Answer

(Spring 40.93) (Summ

Question 11

What is the centered moving average for spring two years ago?

Accepted Answer

The answer of What is the centered moving average for...

Question 12

What is the forecast for this year using trend adjusted (double) smoothing with alpha = .05 and beta = 0.3, if the forecast for last year was 21,000, the forecast for two years ago was 19,000, and the trend estimate for last year's forecast was 1,500?

Accepted Answer

A) 18,750 
B) 19,500 
C) 21,000 
D) 22,650 
E) 22,800 
A) 18,750 
B) 19,500 
C) 21,000 
D) 22,650 
E) 22,800

Question 13

The primary difference between seasonality and cycles is:

Accepted Answer

A) the duration of the repeating patterns 
B) the magnitude of the variation 
C) the ability to attribute the pattern to a cause 
D) the direction of the movement 
E) there are only 4 seasons but 30 cycles 
A) the duration of the repeating patterns 
B) the magnitude of the variation 
C) the ability to attribute the pattern to a cause 
D) the direction of the movement 
E) there are only 4 seasons but 30 cycles

Question 14

Consider the data below:
  Using exponential smoothing with alpha = .2, and assuming the forecast for period 11 was 80, what would the forecast for period 14 be?

Accepted Answer

The answer of Consider the data below:
  Using exponential...

Question 15

Once accepted by managers, forecasts should be held firm regardless of new input since many plans have been made using the original forecast.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 16

Accuracy in forecasting can be measured by:

Accepted Answer

A) MSE 
B) MRP 
C) MAPE 
D) MTM 
E) A & C 
A) MSE 
B) MRP 
C) MAPE 
D) MTM 
E) A & C

Question 17

The two general approaches to forecasting are:

Accepted Answer

A) mathematical and statistical 
B) qualitative and quantitative 
C) judgmental and qualitative 
D) historical and associative 
E) precise and approximation 
A) mathematical and statistical 
B) qualitative and quantitative 
C) judgmental and qualitative 
D) historical and associative 
E) precise and approximation

Question 18

Given the following historical data and weights of .5, .3, and .2, what is the three-period moving average forecast for period 5?

Accepted Answer

A) 144.20 
B) 144.80 
C) 144.67 
D) 143.00 
E) 144.00 
A) 144.20 
B) 144.80 
C) 144.67 
D) 143.00 
E) 144.00

Question 19

Exponential smoothing adds a percentage (called alpha) of last period's forecast to estimate next period's demand.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 20

A persistent tendency for forecasts to be greater than or less than the actual values is called:

Accepted Answer

A) bias 
B) tracking 
C) control charting 
D) positive correlation 
E) linear regression 
A) bias 
B) tracking 
C) control charting 
D) positive correlation 
E) linear regression

Exam 3: Forecasting

A smoothing constant of .1 will cause an exponential smoothing forecast to react more quickly to a sudden change than a smoothing constant value of .3.

For new products in a strong growth mode, a low alpha will minimize forecast errors when using exponential smoothing techniques.

Bias exists when forecasts tend to be greater or less than the actual values of time series.

Demand for the last four months was:

What is this year's forecast using exponential smoothing with alpha = .25, if last year's smoothed forecast was 45?

Forecasts of future demand are used by operations people to plan capacity.

A manager uses the following equation to predict monthly receipts: Yt = 40,000 + 150t.What is the forecast for July if t = 0 in April of this year?

The naive forecast can serve as a quick and easy standard of comparison against which to judge the cost and accuracy of other techniques.

Using the latest observation in a sequence of data to forecast the next period is:

What is this year's seasonally adjusted forecast for each season?

What is the centered moving average for spring two years ago?

What is the forecast for this year using trend adjusted (double) smoothing with alpha = .05 and beta = 0.3, if the forecast for last year was 21,000, the forecast for two years ago was 19,000, and the trend estimate for last year's forecast was 1,500?

The primary difference between seasonality and cycles is:

Consider the data below: Using exponential smoothing with alpha = .2, and assuming the forecast for period 11 was 80, what would the forecast for period 14 be?

Once accepted by managers, forecasts should be held firm regardless of new input since many plans have been made using the original forecast.

Accuracy in forecasting can be measured by:

The two general approaches to forecasting are:

Given the following historical data and weights of .5, .3, and .2, what is the three-period moving average forecast for period 5?

Exponential smoothing adds a percentage (called alpha) of last period's forecast to estimate next period's demand.

A persistent tendency for forecasts to be greater than or less than the actual values is called:

Introduction to Operations Management

Competitiveness, Strategy, and Productivity

Product and Service Design

Strategic Capacity Planning for Products and Services

Process Selection and Facility Layout

Work Design and Measurement

Location Planning and Analysis

Management of Quality

Quality Control

Aggregate Planning and Master Scheduling

MRP and ERP

Inventory Management

Jit and Lean Operations

Supply Chain Management

Scheduling

Project Management

Management of Waiting Lines

Linear Programming

Extension 4: Reliability

Extension 5: Decision Theory

Extension 7: Learning Curves

Extension 8: The Transportation Model

Extension 10: Acceptance Sampling

Extension 14: Maintenance

Filters

A manager uses the following equation to predict monthly receipts: Y_t = 40,000 + 150t.What is the forecast for July if t = 0 in April of this year?