Question 1

The naive forecast is limited in its application to series that reflect no trend or seasonality.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 2

What is the forecast for this year using the least squares trend line for these data?

Accepted Answer

A) 163 
B) 180 
C) 300 
D) 420 
E) 510 
A) 163 
B) 180 
C) 300 
D) 420 
E) 510

Question 3

An important goal of forecasting is to minimize the average forecast error.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 4

A manager is using exponential smoothing to predict merchandise returns at a suburban branch of a department store chain.Given a previous forecast of 140 items, an actual number of returns of 148 items, and a smoothing constant equal to .15, what is the forecast for the next period?

Accepted Answer

The answer of A manager is using exponential smoothing to...

Question 5

Given forecast errors of 4, 8, and - 3, what is the mean absolute deviation?

Accepted Answer

A) 4 
B) 3 
C) 5 
D) 6 
E) 12 
A) 4 
B) 3 
C) 5 
D) 6 
E) 12

Question 6

What is this year's forecast using trend adjusted (double) smoothing with alpha = 0.2 and beta = 0.1, if the forecast for last year was 56, the forecast for two years ago was 46, and the trend estimate for last year's forecast was 7?

Accepted Answer

The answer of What is this year's forecast using trend...

Question 7

Which technique is used in computing seasonal relatives?

Accepted Answer

A) double smoothing 
B) Delphi 
C) Mean Squared Error (MS
E)  
D) centered moving average 
E) exponential smoothing 
A) double smoothing 
B) Delphi 
C) Mean Squared Error (MS
E)  
D) centered moving average 
E) exponential smoothing

Question 8

What is this year's forecast using the naive approach?

Accepted Answer

A) 22,000 
B) 20,000 
C) 18,000 
D) 15,000 
E) 12,000 
A) 22,000 
B) 20,000 
C) 18,000 
D) 15,000 
E) 12,000

Question 9

What is the forecast for this year using exponential smoothing with alpha = 0.5, if the forecast for two years ago was 16,000?

Accepted Answer

A) 18,750 
B) 19,500 
C) 21,000 
D) 22,650 
E) 22,800 
A) 18,750 
B) 19,500 
C) 21,000 
D) 22,650 
E) 22,800

Question 10

Which of the following is the most valuable piece of information the sales force can bring into forecasting situations?

Accepted Answer

A) what customers are most likely to do in the future 
B) what customers most want to do in the future 
C) what customers' future plans are 
D) whether customers are satisfied or dissatisfied with their performance in the past 
E) what the salesperson's appropriate sales quota should be 
A) what customers are most likely to do in the future 
B) what customers most want to do in the future 
C) what customers' future plans are 
D) whether customers are satisfied or dissatisfied with their performance in the past 
E) what the salesperson's appropriate sales quota should be

Question 11

Averaging techniques are useful for:

Accepted Answer

A) distinguishing between random and non-random variations 
B) smoothing out fluctuations in time series 
C) eliminating historical data 
D) providing accuracy in forecasts 
E) average people 
A) distinguishing between random and non-random variations 
B) smoothing out fluctuations in time series 
C) eliminating historical data 
D) providing accuracy in forecasts 
E) average people

Question 12

What is this year's forecast using a three-year simple moving average?

Accepted Answer

A) 2,667 
B) 2,600 
C) 2,500 
D) 2,400 
E) 2,333 
A) 2,667 
B) 2,600 
C) 2,500 
D) 2,400 
E) 2,333

Question 13

A moving average forecast tends to be more responsive to changes in the data series when more data points are included in the average.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 14

A control chart involves setting action limits for cumulative forecast error.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 15

The Delphi approach involves the use of a series of questionnaires to achieve a consensus forecast.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 16

Which of the following is not a step in the forecasting process?

Accepted Answer

A) determine the purpose and level of detail required 
B) eliminate all assumptions 
C) establish a time horizon 
D) select a forecasting model 
E) monitor the forecast 
A) determine the purpose and level of detail required 
B) eliminate all assumptions 
C) establish a time horizon 
D) select a forecasting model 
E) monitor the forecast

Question 17

The mean absolute deviation (MAD) is used to:

Accepted Answer

A) estimate the trend line 
B) eliminate forecast errors 
C) measure forecast accuracy 
D) seasonally adjust the forecast 
E) all of the above 
A) estimate the trend line 
B) eliminate forecast errors 
C) measure forecast accuracy 
D) seasonally adjust the forecast 
E) all of the above

Question 18

Given the following historical data, what is the simple three-period moving average forecast for period 6?

Accepted Answer

A) 67 
B) 115 
C) 69 
D) 68 
E) 68.67 
A) 67 
B) 115 
C) 69 
D) 68 
E) 68.67

Question 19

What is the annual rate of change (slope) of the least squares trend line for these data?

Accepted Answer

A) 0 
B) 200 
C) 400 
D) 180 
E) 360 
A) 0 
B) 200 
C) 400 
D) 180 
E) 360

Question 20

Gradual, long-term movement in time series data is called:

Accepted Answer

A) seasonal variation 
B) cycles 
C) irregular variation 
D) trend 
E) random variation 
A) seasonal variation 
B) cycles 
C) irregular variation 
D) trend 
E) random variation

Exam 3: Forecasting

The naive forecast is limited in its application to series that reflect no trend or seasonality.

What is the forecast for this year using the least squares trend line for these data?

An important goal of forecasting is to minimize the average forecast error.

A manager is using exponential smoothing to predict merchandise returns at a suburban branch of a department store chain.Given a previous forecast of 140 items, an actual number of returns of 148 items, and a smoothing constant equal to .15, what is the forecast for the next period?

Given forecast errors of 4, 8, and - 3, what is the mean absolute deviation?

What is this year's forecast using trend adjusted (double) smoothing with alpha = 0.2 and beta = 0.1, if the forecast for last year was 56, the forecast for two years ago was 46, and the trend estimate for last year's forecast was 7?

Which technique is used in computing seasonal relatives?

What is this year's forecast using the naive approach?

What is the forecast for this year using exponential smoothing with alpha = 0.5, if the forecast for two years ago was 16,000?

Which of the following is the most valuable piece of information the sales force can bring into forecasting situations?

Averaging techniques are useful for:

What is this year's forecast using a three-year simple moving average?

A moving average forecast tends to be more responsive to changes in the data series when more data points are included in the average.

A control chart involves setting action limits for cumulative forecast error.

The Delphi approach involves the use of a series of questionnaires to achieve a consensus forecast.

Which of the following is not a step in the forecasting process?

The mean absolute deviation (MAD) is used to:

Given the following historical data, what is the simple three-period moving average forecast for period 6?

What is the annual rate of change (slope) of the least squares trend line for these data?

Gradual, long-term movement in time series data is called:

Introduction to Operations Management

Competitiveness, Strategy, and Productivity

Product and Service Design

Strategic Capacity Planning for Products and Services

Process Selection and Facility Layout

Work Design and Measurement

Location Planning and Analysis

Management of Quality

Quality Control

Aggregate Planning and Master Scheduling

MRP and ERP

Inventory Management

Jit and Lean Operations

Supply Chain Management

Scheduling

Project Management

Management of Waiting Lines

Linear Programming

Extension 4: Reliability

Extension 5: Decision Theory

Extension 7: Learning Curves

Extension 8: The Transportation Model

Extension 10: Acceptance Sampling

Extension 14: Maintenance

Filters