Exam 3: Forecasting

What is the forecast for this year using trend adjusted (double) smoothing with alpha = 0.3 and beta = 0.2, if the forecast for last year was 310, the forecast for two years ago was 430, and the trend estimate for last year's forecast was -150?

Forecasts for groups of items tend to be less accurate than forecasts for individual items because forecasts for individual items don't include as many influencing factors.

What is this week's forecast using a three-week simple moving average?

The two most important factors in choosing a forecasting technique are:

Which of the following changes would tend to shorten the time frame for short term forecasting?

The shorter the forecast period, the more accurately the forecasts tend to track what actually happens.

Forecasts based on judgment and opinion don't include

Forecasting techniques such as moving averages, exponential smoothing, and the naive approach all represent smoothed (averaged) values of time series data.

A seasonal relative (or seasonal indexes) is expressed as a percentage of average or trend.

Detecting non-randomness in errors can be done using:

A proactive approach to forecasting views forecasts as probable descriptions of future demand, and requires action to be taken to meet that demand.

What is this year's forecast using the naive approach?

Forecasts help managers plan both the system itself and provide valuable information for using the system.

Current information on _________ can have a significant impact on forecast accuracy:

Forecasts based on an average tend to exhibit less variability than the original data.

What is this year's forecast using a four-year simple moving average?

What is the forecast for this year using the naive approach?

For the data given below, what would the naive forecast be for the next period (period #5)?

Seasonal relatives can be used to de-seasonalize data or incorporate seasonality in a forecast.

What is this year's forecast using the naive approach?