Question 1

What is this year's forecast using exponential smoothing with alpha = .2, if last year's smoothed forecast was 15,000?

Accepted Answer

A) 20,000 
B) 19,000 
C) 17,500 
D) 16,000 
E) 15,000 
A) 20,000 
B) 19,000 
C) 17,500 
D) 16,000 
E) 15,000

Question 2

A manager has been using a certain technique to forecast demand for gallons of ice cream for the past six periods.Actual and predicted amounts are shown below.Would a naive forecast have produced better results?

Accepted Answer

@#IMG-DLM& @#IMG-DLM&
 Summary:
Current method: MA

Question 3

Which of the following is not a type of judgmental forecasting?

Accepted Answer

A) executive opinions 
B) sales force opinions 
C) consumer surveys 
D) the Delphi method 
E) time series analysis 
A) executive opinions 
B) sales force opinions 
C) consumer surveys 
D) the Delphi method 
E) time series analysis

Question 4

In order to update a moving average forecast, the values of each data point in the average must be known.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 5

Correlation measures the strength and direction of a relationship between variables.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 6

Forecasting techniques that are based on time series data assume that future values of the series will duplicate past values.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 7

The president of State University wants to forecast student enrollments for this academic year based on the following historical data:   What is the forecast for this year using the naive approach?

Accepted Answer

A) 18,750 
B) 19,500 
C) 21,000 
D) 22,000 
E) 22,800 
A) 18,750 
B) 19,500 
C) 21,000 
D) 22,000 
E) 22,800

Question 8

The previous trend line had predicted 18,500 for two years ago, and 19,700 for last year.What was the mean absolute deviation (MAD) for these forecasts?

Accepted Answer

A) 100 
B) 200 
C) 400 
D) 500 
E) 800 
A) 100 
B) 200 
C) 400 
D) 500 
E) 800

Question 9

Simple linear regression applies to linear relationships with no more than three independent variables.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 10

In order to compute seasonal relatives, the trend of past data must be computed or known which means that for brand new products this approach can't be used.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 11

Which of the following helps improve supply chain forecasting performance?

Accepted Answer

A) contracts that require supply chain members to formulate long term forecasts 
B) penalties for supply chain members that adjust forecasts 
C) sharing forecasts or demand data across the supply chain 
D) increasing lead times for critical supply chain members 
E) increasing the number of suppliers at critical junctures in the supply chain 
A) contracts that require supply chain members to formulate long term forecasts 
B) penalties for supply chain members that adjust forecasts 
C) sharing forecasts or demand data across the supply chain 
D) increasing lead times for critical supply chain members 
E) increasing the number of suppliers at critical junctures in the supply chain

Question 12

What is this week's forecast using trend adjusted (double) smoothing with alpha = 0.5 and beta = 0.1, if the forecast for last week was 65, the forecast for two weeks ago was 75, and the trend estimate for last week's forecast was -5?

Accepted Answer

A) 49.3 
B) 50.6 
C) 51.3 
D) 65.4 
E) 78.7 
A) 49.3 
B) 50.6 
C) 51.3 
D) 65.4 
E) 78.7

Question 13

The naive approach to forecasting requires a linear trend line.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 14

What is this year's forecast using exponential smoothing with alpha = .4, if last year's smoothed forecast was 2600?

Accepted Answer

A) 2,600 
B) 2,760 
C) 2,800 
D) 3,840 
E) 3,000 
A) 2,600 
B) 2,760 
C) 2,800 
D) 3,840 
E) 3,000

Question 15

Forecasting techniques generally assume an existing causal system that will continue to exist in the future.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 16

Which phrase most closely describes the Delphi technique?

Accepted Answer

A) associative forecast 
B) consumer survey 
C) series of questionnaires 
D) developed in India 
E) historical data 
A) associative forecast 
B) consumer survey 
C) series of questionnaires 
D) developed in India 
E) historical data

Question 17

Which of the following features would not generally be considered common to all forecasts?

Accepted Answer

A) Assumption of a stable underlying causal system. 
B) Actual results will differ somewhat from predicted values. 
C) Historical data is available on which to base the forecast. 
D) Forecasts for groups of items tend to be more accurate than forecasts for individual items. 
E) Accuracy decreases as the time horizon increases. 
A) Assumption of a stable underlying causal system. 
B) Actual results will differ somewhat from predicted values. 
C) Historical data is available on which to base the forecast. 
D) Forecasts for groups of items tend to be more accurate than forecasts for individual items. 
E) Accuracy decreases as the time horizon increases.

Question 18

What is the forecast for this year using a three-year weighted moving average with weights of .5, .3, and .2?

Accepted Answer

A) 163 
B) 180 
C) 300 
D) 420 
E) 510 
A) 163 
B) 180 
C) 300 
D) 420 
E) 510

Question 19

The T in the model TAF = S+T represents the time dimension (which is usually expressed in weeks or months).

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 20

What is the linear regression trend line for these data (t = 0 for spring, three years ago)?

Accepted Answer

The answer of What is the linear regression trend line...

Exam 3: Forecasting

What is this year's forecast using exponential smoothing with alpha = .2, if last year's smoothed forecast was 15,000?

A manager has been using a certain technique to forecast demand for gallons of ice cream for the past six periods.Actual and predicted amounts are shown below.Would a naive forecast have produced better results?

Which of the following is not a type of judgmental forecasting?

In order to update a moving average forecast, the values of each data point in the average must be known.

Correlation measures the strength and direction of a relationship between variables.

Forecasting techniques that are based on time series data assume that future values of the series will duplicate past values.

The president of State University wants to forecast student enrollments for this academic year based on the following historical data: What is the forecast for this year using the naive approach?

The previous trend line had predicted 18,500 for two years ago, and 19,700 for last year.What was the mean absolute deviation (MAD) for these forecasts?

Simple linear regression applies to linear relationships with no more than three independent variables.

In order to compute seasonal relatives, the trend of past data must be computed or known which means that for brand new products this approach can't be used.

Which of the following helps improve supply chain forecasting performance?

What is this week's forecast using trend adjusted (double) smoothing with alpha = 0.5 and beta = 0.1, if the forecast for last week was 65, the forecast for two weeks ago was 75, and the trend estimate for last week's forecast was -5?

The naive approach to forecasting requires a linear trend line.

What is this year's forecast using exponential smoothing with alpha = .4, if last year's smoothed forecast was 2600?

Forecasting techniques generally assume an existing causal system that will continue to exist in the future.

Which phrase most closely describes the Delphi technique?

Which of the following features would not generally be considered common to all forecasts?

What is the forecast for this year using a three-year weighted moving average with weights of .5, .3, and .2?

The T in the model TAF = S+T represents the time dimension (which is usually expressed in weeks or months).

What is the linear regression trend line for these data (t = 0 for spring, three years ago)?

Introduction to Operations Management

Competitiveness, Strategy, and Productivity

Product and Service Design

Strategic Capacity Planning for Products and Services

Process Selection and Facility Layout

Work Design and Measurement

Location Planning and Analysis

Management of Quality

Quality Control

Aggregate Planning and Master Scheduling

MRP and ERP

Inventory Management

Jit and Lean Operations

Supply Chain Management

Scheduling

Project Management

Management of Waiting Lines

Linear Programming

Extension 4: Reliability

Extension 5: Decision Theory

Extension 7: Learning Curves

Extension 8: The Transportation Model

Extension 10: Acceptance Sampling

Extension 14: Maintenance

Filters