Question 1

Which of the following smoothing constants would make an exponential smoothing forecast equivalent to a naive forecast?

Accepted Answer

A) 0 
B) .01 
C) .1 
D) .5 
E) 1.0 
A) 0 
B) .01 
C) .1 
D) .5 
E) 1.0

Question 2

Given forecast errors of - 5, - 10, and +15, the MAD is:

Accepted Answer

A) 0 
B) 10 
C) 30 
D) 175 
E) none of these 
A) 0 
B) 10 
C) 30 
D) 175 
E) none of these

Question 3

Use linear regression to develop a predictive model for demand for burial vaults based on sales of caskets.

Accepted Answer

@#IMG-DLM& A) Develo

Question 4

A forecast based on the previous forecast plus a percentage of the forecast error is:

Accepted Answer

A) a naive forecast 
B) a simple moving average forecast 
C) a centered moving average forecast 
D) an exponentially smoothed forecast 
E) an associative forecast 
A) a naive forecast 
B) a simple moving average forecast 
C) a centered moving average forecast 
D) an exponentially smoothed forecast 
E) an associative forecast

Question 5

Removing the seasonal component from a data series (de-seasonalizing) can be accomplished by dividing each data point by its appropriate seasonal relative.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 6

Organizations that are capable of responding quickly to changing requirements can use a shorter forecast horizon and therefore benefit from more accurate forecasts.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 7

Develop a forecast for the next period, given the data below, using a 3-period moving average.

Accepted Answer

The answer of Develop a forecast for the next period,...

Question 8

Which of the following is used for constructing a control chart?

Accepted Answer

A) mean absolute deviation (MA
D)  
B) mean squared error (MS
E)  
C) tracking signal (TS) 
D) bias 
E) none of the above 
A) mean absolute deviation (MA
D)  
B) mean squared error (MS
E)  
C) tracking signal (TS) 
D) bias 
E) none of the above

Question 9

What is this month's forecast using the least squares trend line for these data?

Accepted Answer

A) 1,250 
B) 128.6 
C) 102 
D) 158 
E) 164 
A) 1,250 
B) 128.6 
C) 102 
D) 158 
E) 164

Question 10

Which of the following mechanisms for enhancing profitability is most likely to result from improving short term forecast performance?

Accepted Answer

A) increased inventory 
B) reduced flexibility 
C) higher-quality products 
D) greater customer satisfaction 
E) greater seasonality 
A) increased inventory 
B) reduced flexibility 
C) higher-quality products 
D) greater customer satisfaction 
E) greater seasonality

Question 11

Develop a linear trend equation for the data on bread deliveries shown below.Forecast deliveries for period 11 through 14.

Accepted Answer

@#IMG-DLM& Y_t = 518.2

Question 12

A CPA firm has been using the following equation to predict annual demand for tax audits: Yt = 55 + 4t Demand for the past few years is shown below.Is the forecast performing as well as it might? Explain.

Accepted Answer

@#IMG-DLM& @#IMG-DLM&
 MSE = 11/6 and s = @#IMG-DLM& = 3.41.Even with

Question 13

The sample standard deviation of forecast error is equal to the square root of MSE.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 14

Which of the following possible values of alpha would cause exponential smoothing to respond the most quickly to forecast errors?

Accepted Answer

A) 0 
B) .01 
C) .05 
D) .10 
E) .15 
A) 0 
B) .01 
C) .05 
D) .10 
E) .15

Question 15

Simple exponential smoothing is being used to forecast demand.The previous forecast of 66 turned out to be four units less than actual demand.The next forecast is 66.6, implying a smoothing constant, alpha, equal to:

Accepted Answer

A) .01 
B) .10 
C) .15 
D) .20 
E) .60 
A) .01 
B) .10 
C) .15 
D) .20 
E) .60

Question 16

One reason for using the Delphi method in forecasting is to:

Accepted Answer

A) avoid premature consensus (bandwagon effect) 
B) achieve a high degree of accuracy 
C) maintain accountability and responsibility 
D) be able to replicate results 
E) prevent hurt feelings 
A) avoid premature consensus (bandwagon effect) 
B) achieve a high degree of accuracy 
C) maintain accountability and responsibility 
D) be able to replicate results 
E) prevent hurt feelings

Question 17

The degree of management involvement in short range forecasts is:

Accepted Answer

A) none 
B) low 
C) moderate 
D) high 
E) total 
A) none 
B) low 
C) moderate 
D) high 
E) total

Question 18

Given an actual demand of 59, a previous forecast of 64, and an alpha of .3, what would the forecast for the next period be using simple exponential smoothing?

Accepted Answer

A) 36.9 
B) 57.5 
C) 60.5 
D) 62.5 
E) 65.5 
A) 36.9 
B) 57.5 
C) 60.5 
D) 62.5 
E) 65.5

Question 19

A manager is using the equation below to forecast quarterly demand for a product:
Yt = 6,000 + 80t where t = 0 at Q2 of last year
Quarter relatives are Q1 = .6, Q2 = .9, Q3 = 1.3, and Q4 = 1.2.
What forecasts are appropriate for the last quarter of this year and the first quarter of next year?

Accepted Answer

For Q4 of this year

Question 20

When new products or services are introduced, focus forecasting models are an attractive option.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Exam 3: Forecasting

Which of the following smoothing constants would make an exponential smoothing forecast equivalent to a naive forecast?

Given forecast errors of - 5, - 10, and +15, the MAD is:

Use linear regression to develop a predictive model for demand for burial vaults based on sales of caskets.

A forecast based on the previous forecast plus a percentage of the forecast error is:

Removing the seasonal component from a data series (de-seasonalizing) can be accomplished by dividing each data point by its appropriate seasonal relative.

Organizations that are capable of responding quickly to changing requirements can use a shorter forecast horizon and therefore benefit from more accurate forecasts.

Develop a forecast for the next period, given the data below, using a 3-period moving average.

Which of the following is used for constructing a control chart?

What is this month's forecast using the least squares trend line for these data?

Which of the following mechanisms for enhancing profitability is most likely to result from improving short term forecast performance?

Develop a linear trend equation for the data on bread deliveries shown below.Forecast deliveries for period 11 through 14.

A CPA firm has been using the following equation to predict annual demand for tax audits: Yt = 55 + 4t Demand for the past few years is shown below.Is the forecast performing as well as it might? Explain.

The sample standard deviation of forecast error is equal to the square root of MSE.

Which of the following possible values of alpha would cause exponential smoothing to respond the most quickly to forecast errors?

Simple exponential smoothing is being used to forecast demand.The previous forecast of 66 turned out to be four units less than actual demand.The next forecast is 66.6, implying a smoothing constant, alpha, equal to:

One reason for using the Delphi method in forecasting is to:

The degree of management involvement in short range forecasts is:

Given an actual demand of 59, a previous forecast of 64, and an alpha of .3, what would the forecast for the next period be using simple exponential smoothing?

A manager is using the equation below to forecast quarterly demand for a product: Yt = 6,000 + 80t where t = 0 at Q2 of last year Quarter relatives are Q1 = .6, Q2 = .9, Q3 = 1.3, and Q4 = 1.2. What forecasts are appropriate for the last quarter of this year and the first quarter of next year?

When new products or services are introduced, focus forecasting models are an attractive option.

Introduction to Operations Management

Competitiveness, Strategy, and Productivity

Product and Service Design

Strategic Capacity Planning for Products and Services

Process Selection and Facility Layout

Work Design and Measurement

Location Planning and Analysis

Management of Quality

Quality Control

Aggregate Planning and Master Scheduling

MRP and ERP

Inventory Management

Jit and Lean Operations

Supply Chain Management

Scheduling

Project Management

Management of Waiting Lines

Linear Programming

Extension 4: Reliability

Extension 5: Decision Theory

Extension 7: Learning Curves

Extension 8: The Transportation Model

Extension 10: Acceptance Sampling

Extension 14: Maintenance

Filters

A manager is using the equation below to forecast quarterly demand for a product: Y_t = 6,000 + 80t where t = 0 at Q2 of last year Quarter relatives are Q1 = .6, Q2 = .9, Q3 = 1.3, and Q4 = 1.2. What forecasts are appropriate for the last quarter of this year and the first quarter of next year?