Exam 8: Decision Making

________ is using math modelling,and predictive algorithms to measure and monitor people and machines to assist in decision making.

A(n)________ occurs when decision makers think they know more than they do or hold unrealistically positive views of themselves and their performance.

Management Decisions: Declining Income (Scenario) Net income has fallen for the second consecutive quarter, and Amanda is understandably worried. She knows there will be a lot of questions for her at the board of directors meeting Wednesday, and she will be expected to reveal her plan to avoid any third-quarter losses. Amanda begins to analyze the company's financial reports to try to determine the cause of the loss. After much consideration, it appears that expenses have risen dramatically over the last few months. Amanda wonders why. She decides a meeting of the department heads is in order first thing tomorrow morning. At the meeting, Amanda would like to generate several possible solutions to the increased expenses. She wonders how to effectively explore all the options. Next morning, the first option presented at the meeting is to downsize the research and development department, since it is not essential to current operations. Several managers believe the plan will help stem the losses and immediately move to approve it. However, Amanda suggests that they need to look further at the issue and explore other potential solutions. Several suggestions are made, many of which appear to be viable. Amanda wonders what to do next. -What is the first step in the decision-making process facing Amanda?

Decision-Making Conditions: Keep on Truckin' (Scenario) Fiona Lui is general manager of Westcoast Trucks, a medium-sized hauling service located in Vancouver, B.C. She is responsible for scheduling trucks, initiating new routes, and staffing both existing and new routes. She is currently struggling to find more information about the profitability of existing and future truck routes. -Sylvia,Fiona's scheduling assistant,is pessimistic about the company's ability to earn a profit from the proposed new truck route.Sylvia will most likely follow a ________ strategy.

Nonprogrammed decisions are typically made under a condition of ________.

When problems are ________,managers must rely on ________ in order to develop unique solutions.

Risk is a condition in which a decision maker has neither certainty nor reasonable probability estimates.

In a short essay,describe and discuss the eight steps in the decision-making process.Give a simple example of a decision to illustrate your answer.

Decision-making Biases (Scenario) Frank is president of Mega Manufacturing, a Canadian company that makes automobile parts. Sales and profits are down sharply this quarter, and Frank needs to analyze the series of events that have led to the poor performance. Frank begins by reviewing his recent interactions with Mike, the vice-president of sales. -Last week when Frank asked Mike how his presentation to a large Japanese car maker went,Mike replied,"My presentation was brilliant! They loved me! I am positive we will get the contract!" Mike's overly positive view of his performance demonstrates which of the following?

The process of selecting decision criteria is accomplished by ________.

The self-serving bias occurs when decision makers take credit for their successes and blame failure on outside factors.