Question 1

Sharing demand forecasts with supply chain members has resulted in an increased bullwhip effect.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 2

The Delphi method generates forecasts based on informed judgments and opinions from knowledgeable individuals.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 3

Multiple regression analysis can be used to relate demand to two or more dependent variables.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 4

Exponential smoothing is an averaging method for forecasting that reacts more strongly to recent changes in demand.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 5

If forecast errors are normally distributed then

Accepted Answer

A) 1 MAD = 1σ 
B) 1 MAD ≈ 0.8 σ 
C) 0.8 MAD ≈ 1σ 
D) 1 MAD ≈ 1.96 σ 
A) 1 MAD = 1σ 
B) 1 MAD ≈ 0.8 σ 
C) 0.8 MAD ≈ 1σ 
D) 1 MAD ≈ 1.96 σ

Question 6

In today's competitive environment,effective supply chain management requires absolute demand forecasts.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 7

Discuss the importance of accurate forecasts in supply chain management.

Accepted Answer

A company's supply chain encompasses all

Question 8

Movements in demand that do not follow a given pattern are referred to as random variations.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 9

A tracking signal is computed by

Accepted Answer

A) multiplying the cumulative error by MAD. 
B) multiplying the absolute error by MAD. 
C) dividing MAD by the cumulative absolute error. 
D) dividing the cumulative error by MAD. 
A) multiplying the cumulative error by MAD. 
B) multiplying the absolute error by MAD. 
C) dividing MAD by the cumulative absolute error. 
D) dividing the cumulative error by MAD.

Question 10

The long-term strategic planning process is dependent upon qualitative forecasting methods.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 11

A forecasting model has produced the following forecasts:   The mean absolute percent deviation (MAPD)for the end of May is

Accepted Answer

A) 0.0250. 
B) 0.0583. 
C) 0.5830. 
D) 0.6670. 
A) 0.0250. 
B) 0.0583. 
C) 0.5830. 
D) 0.6670.

Question 12

The _______ method uses demand in the first period to forecast demand in the next period.

Accepted Answer

A) naïve 
B) moving average 
C) exponential smoothing 
D) linear trend 
A) naïve 
B) moving average 
C) exponential smoothing 
D) linear trend

Question 13

Time series methods assume that demand patterns in the past are a good predictor of demand in the future.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 14

The demand behavior for skis is considered cyclical.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 15

The sum of the weights in a weighted moving average forecast must

Accepted Answer

A) equal the number of periods being averaged. 
B) equal 1.00. 
C) be less than 1.00. 
D) be greater than 1.00. 
A) equal the number of periods being averaged. 
B) equal 1.00. 
C) be less than 1.00. 
D) be greater than 1.00.

Question 16

Because of globalization of markets,managers are finding it increasingly more difficult to create accurate demand forecasts.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 17

A forecasting model has produced the following forecasts,   the forecast error for February is

Accepted Answer

A) 10. 
B) −10. 
C) −15. 
D) −5 
A) 10. 
B) −10. 
C) −15. 
D) −5

Question 18

The trend toward continuous replenishment in supply chain design has shifted the need for accurate forecasts from long-term to short-term.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 19

For the demand values and the January forecast shown in the table below the exponential smoothing forecast for March using α = 0.40 is

Accepted Answer

A) 1,200. 
B) 1,222. 
C) 1,225. 
D) 1,220 
A) 1,200. 
B) 1,222. 
C) 1,225. 
D) 1,220

Question 20

A seasonal pattern is an oscillating movement in demand that occurs periodically over the short-run and is repetitive.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Exam 17: Forecasting

Sharing demand forecasts with supply chain members has resulted in an increased bullwhip effect.

The Delphi method generates forecasts based on informed judgments and opinions from knowledgeable individuals.

Multiple regression analysis can be used to relate demand to two or more dependent variables.

Exponential smoothing is an averaging method for forecasting that reacts more strongly to recent changes in demand.

If forecast errors are normally distributed then

In today's competitive environment,effective supply chain management requires absolute demand forecasts.

Discuss the importance of accurate forecasts in supply chain management.

Movements in demand that do not follow a given pattern are referred to as random variations.

A tracking signal is computed by

The long-term strategic planning process is dependent upon qualitative forecasting methods.

A forecasting model has produced the following forecasts: The mean absolute percent deviation (MAPD)for the end of May is

The _______ method uses demand in the first period to forecast demand in the next period.

Time series methods assume that demand patterns in the past are a good predictor of demand in the future.

The demand behavior for skis is considered cyclical.

The sum of the weights in a weighted moving average forecast must

Because of globalization of markets,managers are finding it increasingly more difficult to create accurate demand forecasts.

A forecasting model has produced the following forecasts, the forecast error for February is

The trend toward continuous replenishment in supply chain design has shifted the need for accurate forecasts from long-term to short-term.

For the demand values and the January forecast shown in the table below the exponential smoothing forecast for March using α = 0.40 is

A seasonal pattern is an oscillating movement in demand that occurs periodically over the short-run and is repetitive.

Introduction to Operations and Supply Chain Management

Supplement Operational Decision-Making Tools: Decision Analysis

Quality Management

Statistical Process Control

Supplement Operational Decision-Making Tools: Acceptance Sampling

Product Design

Service Design

Processes and Technology

Capacity and Facilities

Supplement Operational Decision-Making Tools: Facility Location Models

Human Resources

Supplement Operational Decision-Making Tools: Work Measurement

Project Management

Supply Chain Management Strategy and Design

Global Supply Chain Procurement and Distribution

Supplement Operational Decision-Making Tools: Transportation and Transshipment Models

Inventory Management

Supplement Operational Decision-Making Tools: Simulation

Sales and Operations Planning

Supplement Operational Decision-Making Tools: Linear Programming

Enterprise Resource Planning

Lean Systems

Scheduling

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