Question 1

The larger the mean absolute deviation (MAD)the more accurate the forecast.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 2

A linear regression model that relates demand to time is known as a linear trend line.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 3

Which of the following can be used to monitor a forecast to see if it is biased high or low?

Accepted Answer

A) a tracking signal 
B) the mean absolute deviation (MA
D)  
C) the mean absolute percentage deviation (MAP
D)  
D) a linear trend line model 
A) a tracking signal 
B) the mean absolute deviation (MA
D)  
C) the mean absolute percentage deviation (MAP
D)  
D) a linear trend line model

Question 4

Many companies are shifting from long-term to short-term forecasts for strategic planning.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 5

A forecast

Accepted Answer

A) predicts what will occur in the future. 
B) results from an uncertain process. 
C) support strategic planning. 
D) All of these answer choices are correct. 
A) predicts what will occur in the future. 
B) results from an uncertain process. 
C) support strategic planning. 
D) All of these answer choices are correct.

Question 6

Given the following demand data for the past five months,the three-period moving average forecast for June is

Accepted Answer

A) 103.33. 
B) 99.00. 
C) 95.00. 
D) 92.50 
A) 103.33. 
B) 99.00. 
C) 95.00. 
D) 92.50

Question 7

Which of the following statements concerning average error is true?

Accepted Answer

A) A positive value indicates high bias,and a negative value indicates low bias. 
B) A positive value indicates zero bias,and a negative value indicates low bias. 
C) A negative value indicates zero bias,and a negative value indicates high bias. 
D) A positive value indicates low bias,and a negative value indicates high bias. 
A) A positive value indicates high bias,and a negative value indicates low bias. 
B) A positive value indicates zero bias,and a negative value indicates low bias. 
C) A negative value indicates zero bias,and a negative value indicates high bias. 
D) A positive value indicates low bias,and a negative value indicates high bias.

Question 8

Long-range quantitative forecasts are used to determine future demand for new products,markets,and customers.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 9

Continuous replenishment relies heavily on ____________term forecast.

Accepted Answer

A) short- 
B) medium- 
C) long- 
D) All of these answer choices are correct. 
A) short- 
B) medium- 
C) long- 
D) All of these answer choices are correct.

Question 10

Because of the development of advanced forecasting models,managers no longer track forecast error.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 11

A company wants to produce a weighted moving average forecast for April with the weights 0.40,0.35,and 0.25 assigned to March,February,and January respectively.If the company had demands of 5,000 in January,4,750 in February,and 5,200 in March,then April's forecast is

Accepted Answer

A) 4983.33. 
B) 4992.50. 
C) 4962.50. 
D) 5000.00. 
A) 4983.33. 
B) 4992.50. 
C) 4962.50. 
D) 5000.00.

Question 12

The mean absolute percentage deviation (MAPD)measures the absolute error as a percentage of

Accepted Answer

A) all errors. 
B) per-period demand. 
C) total demand. 
D) the average error. 
A) all errors. 
B) per-period demand. 
C) total demand. 
D) the average error.

Question 13

Regression is used for forecasting when there is a relationship between the dependent variable (demand)and one or more independent (explanatory)variables.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 14

The ______________ effect is caused in part by distortion in product demand information caused by inaccurate forecasts.

Accepted Answer

A) bullwhip 
B) regression 
C) error 
D) None of these answer choices is correct. 
A) bullwhip 
B) regression 
C) error 
D) None of these answer choices is correct.

Question 15

Given the demand and forecast values below,the naïve forecast for September is

Accepted Answer

A) 100.6. 
B) 99.0. 
C) 102.0. 
D) cannot be determined. 
A) 100.6. 
B) 99.0. 
C) 102.0. 
D) cannot be determined.

Question 16

A large positive cumulative error indicates that the forecast is probably

Accepted Answer

A) higher than the actual demand. 
B) lower than the actual demand. 
C) unbiased. 
D) biased. 
A) higher than the actual demand. 
B) lower than the actual demand. 
C) unbiased. 
D) biased.

Question 17

Given the demand and forecast values shown in the table below,   the mean absolute deviation (MAD)through the end of October is

Accepted Answer

A) 9.20 
B) -9.20 
C) 1.00 
D) 7.00 
A) 9.20 
B) -9.20 
C) 1.00 
D) 7.00

Question 18

________________ demand is a key to providing good-quality service.

Accepted Answer

A) Predicted 
B) Forecasted 
C) Anticipated 
D) Unknown 
A) Predicted 
B) Forecasted 
C) Anticipated 
D) Unknown

Question 19

A forecasting model has produced the following forecasts:   At the end of May the tracking signal would be

Accepted Answer

A) 0.000. 
B) 0.667. 
C) 1.333. 
D) 2.143. 
A) 0.000. 
B) 0.667. 
C) 1.333. 
D) 2.143.

Question 20

Explain how and why time series and regression forecasting methods differ.

Accepted Answer

Time series methods are statistical tech

Exam 17: Forecasting

The larger the mean absolute deviation (MAD)the more accurate the forecast.

A linear regression model that relates demand to time is known as a linear trend line.

Which of the following can be used to monitor a forecast to see if it is biased high or low?

Many companies are shifting from long-term to short-term forecasts for strategic planning.

A forecast

Given the following demand data for the past five months,the three-period moving average forecast for June is

Which of the following statements concerning average error is true?

Long-range quantitative forecasts are used to determine future demand for new products,markets,and customers.

Continuous replenishment relies heavily on ____________term forecast.

Because of the development of advanced forecasting models,managers no longer track forecast error.

A company wants to produce a weighted moving average forecast for April with the weights 0.40,0.35,and 0.25 assigned to March,February,and January respectively.If the company had demands of 5,000 in January,4,750 in February,and 5,200 in March,then April's forecast is

The mean absolute percentage deviation (MAPD)measures the absolute error as a percentage of

Regression is used for forecasting when there is a relationship between the dependent variable (demand)and one or more independent (explanatory)variables.

The ______________ effect is caused in part by distortion in product demand information caused by inaccurate forecasts.

Given the demand and forecast values below,the naïve forecast for September is

A large positive cumulative error indicates that the forecast is probably

Given the demand and forecast values shown in the table below, the mean absolute deviation (MAD)through the end of October is

________________ demand is a key to providing good-quality service.

A forecasting model has produced the following forecasts: At the end of May the tracking signal would be

Explain how and why time series and regression forecasting methods differ.

Introduction to Operations and Supply Chain Management

Supplement Operational Decision-Making Tools: Decision Analysis

Quality Management

Statistical Process Control

Supplement Operational Decision-Making Tools: Acceptance Sampling

Product Design

Service Design

Processes and Technology

Capacity and Facilities

Supplement Operational Decision-Making Tools: Facility Location Models

Human Resources

Supplement Operational Decision-Making Tools: Work Measurement

Project Management

Supply Chain Management Strategy and Design

Global Supply Chain Procurement and Distribution

Supplement Operational Decision-Making Tools: Transportation and Transshipment Models

Inventory Management

Supplement Operational Decision-Making Tools: Simulation

Sales and Operations Planning

Supplement Operational Decision-Making Tools: Linear Programming

Enterprise Resource Planning

Lean Systems

Scheduling

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