Exam 15: Forecasting

The dependent variable in linear regression is usually designated as the x variable.

The closer the value of α is to zero, the ________ will be the dampening or smoothing effect.

If average forecast error is positive, it indicates that the forecast is biased high.

Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame: Period Demand 1 200 2 245 3 190 4 270 5 280 6 300 -Use a 3-period moving average to forecast demand for period 7.

Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame: Period Demand 1 200 2 245 3 190 4 270 5 280 6 300 -Compute a 5-period moving average for period 6.

Correlation measures the strength of relationship between the x and y variables and the closer it is to 1 or -1, the greater the proof that the level of x determines the level of y.

The manager of "Skis 4 U" is preparing a forecast for February of 2010. Demand exhibits both trend and seasonality. The trend equation for monthly demand is y = 4375 + 80t, where t = 1 for January 2009. The seasonal index for February is 1.25. The forecast for February is:

A(n) ________ forecast typically encompass a period longer than one year.

A trend is a gradual, long-term, up-or-down movement of demand.

Time series methods assume that what has occurred in the past will continue to occur in the future.

Coefficient of determination is the percentage of the variation in the ________ variable that results from the ________ variable.

If the absolute errors were calculated for 5 periods and the sum of the absolute deviation is 60, what is the value of the MAD?

Consider the following graph of sales. Which of the following characteristics is exhibited by the data?