Exam 15: Forecasting

________ is a type of exponential smoothing that can also include trend.

Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame: Period Demand 1 200 2 245 3 190 4 270 5 280 6 300 -Compute a 5-period moving average for period 7.

A rendering plant wishes to use the data (sales records from a few local businesses and the month of the year) to help determine their supply level for the coming months. The records shown in the table provide an excellent opportunity for you to assist them with their forecasting. Month Sales Pounds Tanuary 45 54.3 February 57 63.8 March 32 39.5 April 44 49.8 May 51 52.3 Tune 34 39.9 -What is the regression equation resulting from using Sales to forecast Pounds?

A rendering plant wishes to use the data (sales records from a few local businesses and the month of the year) to help determine their supply level for the coming months. The records shown in the table provide an excellent opportunity for you to assist them with their forecasting. Month Sales Pounds Tanuary 45 54.3 February 57 63.8 March 32 39.5 April 44 49.8 May 51 52.3 Tune 34 39.9 -What are the salient performance statistics for the simple regression of Pounds on Sales? Provide an interpretation.

In the regression equation y=a+bx, the slope of the equation is x.

________ measures the strength of the relationship between two variables.

Longer-period moving averages react more slowly to recent demand changes than do shorter-period moving averages.

The Delphi method develops a consensus forecast about what will occur in the future.

Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame: Period Demand 1 200 2 245 3 190 4 270 5 280 6 300 -Use a 2-period moving average to forecast demand for period 7.

Given the following data on hotel check-ins for a 6-month period: July:     70 rooms August:     105 rooms September:     90 rooms October:     120 rooms November:    110 rooms December:     115 rooms -What is the 3-month moving average forecast for January?

Consider the following graph of sales. Which of the following characteristics is exhibited by the data?

The major types of forecasting methods are ________, ________, and ________.

MAPD measures ________.

Given the following data on hotel check-ins for a 6-month period: July: $\quad 70$ rooms August: $\quad 105$ rooms September: 90 rooms October: $\quad 120$ rooms November: 110 rooms December: 115 rooms -Using a 3-month moving average, how many check-ins can be forecasted for January?

________ moving averages react more slowly to recent demand changes than do ________ moving averages.

The following sales data are available for 2003-2008. Year Demand 2003 7 2004 12 2005 14 2006 20 2007 16 2008 25 Determine a 4-year weighted moving average forecast for 2009, where weights are W1 = .1, W2 = .2, W3 = .2 and W4 = .5.

Assume that the forecasted demand for 2006 is 15. Use the following data set and exponential smoothing with α = 0.4 and determine the forecasted demand for 2009. Year Demand 2006 16 2007 20 2008 18

________ is a linear regression model relating demand to time.

In adjusted exponential smoothing, the closer beta is to ________, the stronger a trend is reflected.

Given the following data, compute the MAD for the forecast. Year Demand Forecast 2001 16 18 2002 20 19 2003 18 24