Exam 15: Forecasting

Robert wants to know if there is a relation between money spent on gambling and winnings. Money Spent Money Won 12 62 10 50 16 94 18 106 15 74 10 56 What is the coefficient of determination?

Sally has been running the following number of ads in the local newspaper to help attract customers into her store. She has also been keeping track of customers who have come into the store as a result of the ads, as well as the amount of money they spend. This is the data from the last 4 weeks: Number of ads Increased sales 16 330 12 270 18 380 14 300 -If Sally runs 15 ads, how much will sales increase?

The ________ is a procedure for developing a consensus forecast about what will occur in the future.

Regression is used to relate one variable to one or more variables.

Moving averages are good for stable demand with no pronounced behavioral patterns.

The ________ is the percentage of variation in the dependent variable that results from the independent variable.

A local gym has discovered that their demand for personal trainers (measured in hours) is related not only to their own advertising expenditures in the prior month, but also to the demand for doughnuts and swim gear in the prior month at neighboring stores. The gym has developed the following regression model to forecast demand for personal trainers: Demand = 185 + (0.15∗advertising expenditures) - (0.05∗doughnuts) + (0.23∗swim gear sales) What is the forecast for October, given advertising expenditures of 1000, doughnut sales of 2450, and swim gear sales of 782 in September?

The following data represents quarterly sales of lawnmowers. Year Quarter 1 Quarter 2 Quarter 3 Quarter 4 1 150 140 190 165 2 160 148 210 175 -What is the seasonal index for the fourth quarter? (Round to the nearest hundredth.)

The ________ is the average of the sum of the squared errors.

Longer-period moving averages react more ________ to recent demand changes than do shorter period moving averages.

________ use management judgment, expertise, and opinion to make forecasts.

If the forecast is 14 and the actual value is 15, then the error this period is

A ________ is an up-and-down repetitive movement that repeats itself over a time span of more than 1 year.

A rendering plant wishes to use the data (sales records from a few local businesses and the month of the year) to help determine their supply level for the coming months. The records shown in the table provide an excellent opportunity for you to assist them with their forecasting. Month Sales Pounds Tanuary 45 54.3 February 57 63.8 March 32 39.5 April 44 49.8 May 51 52.3 Tune 34 39.9 -What is the slope of the regression equation developed when the Sales data are used to predict the Pounds?

Technological forecasting helps determine the technological feasibility of new products by surveying large numbers of consumers.

Daily operations are assisted by ________-range forecasting

________ is the percentage of the variation in the dependent variable that results from the independent variable.

________ are the movements or fluctuation in demand that exhibit no pattern and occur on a random basis.

Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame: Period Demand 1 200 2 245 3 190 4 270 5 280 6 300 -Compute a 3-period moving average for period 7.

If the forecast for period 5 is equal to 275, use exponential smoothing to compute a forecast for period 7 if α = .40.