Exam 15: Forecasting

Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame: Period Demand 1 200 2 245 3 190 4 270 5 280 6 300 -Daily highs in Sacramento for the past week (from least to most recent) were: 95, 102, 101, 96, 95, 90 and 92. Develop a forecast for today using a weighted moving average, with a weights of .6, .3, and .1, where the highest weights are applied to the most recent data.

Robert has the following accounts on money spent on gambling and winnings: Money Spent Money Won 1000 2500 1200 4000 1800 4500 2000 4600 2500 5000 2800 4800 3500 5600 4000 6000 4200 5800 -Develop a regression equation that relates the money Robert spends and the money he wins.

One problem with multiple regression is ________, which is a measure of the amount of "overlapping" information about the dependent variable that's provided by several independent variables.

The following data summarizes the historical demand for a product: Month Actual Demand March 20 April 25 May 40 Tune 35 Tuly 30 August 45 -If the forecasted demand for June, July, and August is 32, 38 and 42, respectively, what is MSE?

________ methods assume that what has occurred in the past will continue to occur in the future.

A long-term wave in a demand pattern that undulates gracefully over a period of greater than a year is a(n) ________.

A rendering plant wishes to use the data (sales records from a few local businesses and the month of the year) to help determine their supply level for the coming months. The records shown in the table provide an excellent opportunity for you to assist them with their forecasting. Month Sales Pounds Tanuary 45 54.3 February 57 63.8 March 32 39.5 April 44 49.8 May 51 52.3 Tune 34 39.9 -What is the regression equation resulting from using the month, where January=1, February=2, etc.) to forecast Pounds?

________ indicates a forecast is biased high.

Which of the following possible values of alpha would cause exponential smoothing to respond the most slowly to sudden changes in forecast errors?

A(n) ________ is an up-and-down repetitive movement within a trend occurring periodically.

A rendering plant wishes to use the data (sales records from a few local businesses and the month of the year) to help determine their supply level for the coming months. The records shown in the table provide an excellent opportunity for you to assist them with their forecasting. Month Sales Pounds Tanuary 45 54.3 February 57 63.8 March 32 39.5 April 44 49.8 May 51 52.3 Tune 34 39.9 -What is the forecast for July if exponential smoothing with an alpha=.04 generated a forecast of 43.0 for June?

The following sales data are available for 2003-2008: Year Sales 2003 7 2004 12 2005 14 2006 20 2007 16 2008 25 Determine a 4-year moving average forecast for 2008 and 2009.

Given an actual demand of 59, a previous forecast of 64, and an alpha of .3, what would the forecast for the next period be using simple exponential smoothing?

A rendering plant wishes to use the data (sales records from a few local businesses and the month of the year) to help determine their supply level for the coming months. The records shown in the table provide an excellent opportunity for you to assist them with their forecasting. Month Sales Pounds Tanuary 45 54.3 February 57 63.8 March 32 39.5 April 44 49.8 May 51 52.3 Tune 34 39.9 -What is the regression equation resulting from using both the month (where January=1, February=2, etc.) and the level of Sales to forecast Pounds?

Recent past demand for product ZXT is given in the following table. Month Actual Demand February 20 March 22 April 33 May 35 June 31 July 48 August 41 -Use simple exponential smoothing with alpha = .4 and determine the forecasted demand for August and September. Assume that the smoothed forecast for July is 38.

Given forecast errors of 6, 4, 0 and -2, what is the mean absolute deviation?

A rendering plant wishes to use the data (sales records from a few local businesses and the month of the year) to help determine their supply level for the coming months. The records shown in the table provide an excellent opportunity for you to assist them with their forecasting. Month Sales Pounds Tanuary 45 54.3 February 57 63.8 March 32 39.5 April 44 49.8 May 51 52.3 Tune 34 39.9 -What are the salient performance statistics for the simple regression model that predicts the level of Pounds by the number of the month the company is in (with January=1)? Provide an interpretation.

A cycle is an up-or-down movement in demand that repeats itself in less than 1 year.

Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame: Period Demand 1 200 2 245 3 190 4 270 5 280 6 300 -Daily highs in Sacramento for the past week (from least to most recent) were: 95, 102, 101, 96, 95, 90 and 92. Develop a forecast for today using a 3-day moving average.

________ are good for stable demand with no pronounced behavioral patterns.