Exam 15: Forecasting

Shorter-period moving averages react more slowly to recent demand changes than do longer-period moving averages.

Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame: Period Demand 1 200 2 245 3 190 4 270 5 280 6 300 -Compute a 3-period moving average for period 6.

Given the following data on hotel check-ins for a 6-month period: July:     70 rooms August:     105 rooms September:     90 rooms October:     120 rooms November:    110 rooms December:     115 rooms -With alpha = 0.2, what is the simple exponential smoothing forecast for October? Assume the forecast for July was 80 rooms.

Given the following data on hotel check-ins for a 6-month period: July: $\quad 70$ rooms August: $\quad 105$ rooms September: 90 rooms October: $\quad 120$ rooms November: 110 rooms December: 115 rooms -Using the exponential smoothing factor 0.3, how many check-ins can be forecasted for January? Assume the forecast for December was 122 rooms.

________ is the difference between the forecast and actual demand.

Consider the following annual sales data for 2001-2008: Year Sales 2001 2 2002 4 2003 10 2004 8 2005 14 2006 18 2007 17 2008 20 -Calculate the coefficient of determination.

The coefficient of determination provides a measure of how the level of the independent variable in a regression equation explains the level of the dependent variable in the equation.

The following data summarizes the historical demand for a product: Month Actual Demand March 20 April 25 May 40 Tune 35 Tuly 30 August 45 -If the forecasted demand for June, July, and August is 32, 38 and 42, respectively, what is MAD?

Robert has the following accounts on money spent on gambling and winnings: Money Spent Money Won 1000 2500 1200 4000 1800 4500 2000 4600 2500 5000 2800 4800 3500 5600 4000 6000 4200 5800 -Determine the correlation coefficient and the coefficient of determination.

________ has become increasingly crucial to compete in the modern international business environment.

The basic types of forecasting methods include time series, regression, and qualitative methods.

The ________ is the sum of the absolute value of forecasting errors divided by the number of periods in which a forecast was made.

Consider the following annual sales data for 2001-2008: Year Sales 2001 2 2002 4 2003 10 2004 8 2005 14 2006 18 2007 17 2008 20 -Use the linear regression method and determine the estimated sales equation.

Consider the following annual sales data for 2001-2008: Year Sales 2001 2 2002 4 2003 10 2004 8 2005 14 2006 18 2007 17 2008 20 -Calculate the correlation coefficient.

________ methods are the most common type of forecasting method for the long-term strategic planning process.

________ is a category of statistical techniques that uses historical data to predict future behavior.

Given forecast errors of 6, 4, 0 and -2, what is the mean squared error?

The following data summarizes the historical demand for a product: Month Actual Demand March 20 April 25 May 40 Tune 35 Tuly 30 August 45 -If the forecasted demand for June, July, and August is 32, 38 and 42, respectively, what is MAPD?

________ is a measure of the strength of the relationship between independent variable(s) and a dependent variable.

Random variations are movements that are not predictable and follow no pattern.