Exam 15: Forecasting

If the forecast is 33 and the actual value is 44, then the error this period is ________.

Simple exponential smoothing is being used to forecast demand. The previous forecast of 66 turned out to be four units less than actual demand. If the next forecast is 66.6, what is the value of the smoothing constant, α?

A rendering plant wishes to use the data (sales records from a few local businesses and the month of the year) to help determine their supply level for the coming months. The records shown in the table provide an excellent opportunity for you to assist them with their forecasting. Month Sales Pounds Tanuary 45 54.3 February 57 63.8 March 32 39.5 April 44 49.8 May 51 52.3 Tune 34 39.9 -What is a three-period moving average forecast for the month of July?

Unpredictable movements in demand that follow no pattern are ________.

Consider the following graph of sales. Which of the following characteristics is exhibited by the data?

Qualitative methods are the least common type of forecasting method for the long-term strategic planning process.

A ________ is a gradual, long-term, up-or-down movement of demand.

Quarterly sales is given for the past 3 years. Determine the seasonal factors for each quarter. Winter Spring Summer Fall Year 1 4800 4500 4100 5500 Year 2 5700 3800 4500 6000 Year 3 6000 4600 4900 6500

________ relates demand to two or more independent variables.

A rendering plant wishes to use the data (sales records from a few local businesses and the month of the year) to help determine their supply level for the coming months. The records shown in the table provide an excellent opportunity for you to assist them with their forecasting. Month Sales Pounds Tanuary 45 54.3 February 57 63.8 March 32 39.5 April 44 49.8 May 51 52.3 Tune 34 39.9 -Using 1 to represent January, 2 to represent February, and so on, what is the intercept for the regression equation that predicts the pounds of supplies available?

Recent past demand for product ZXT is given in the following table. Month Actual Demand February 20 March 22 April 33 May 35 June 31 July 48 August 41 -Base on a three-month weighted moving average with weights w1 = .1, w2 = .4, and w3 = .5 (most recent), determine the forecasted demand for August and September. What is the forecast error in August?

________ is a gradual, long-term, upward or downward movement of demand.

If the forecast is 25 and the actual value is 25, then the error this period is ________.

In exponential smoothing, the closer alpha is to ________, the greater the reaction to the most recent demand.

________ is absolute error as a percentage of demand.

A rendering plant wishes to use the data (sales records from a few local businesses and the month of the year) to help determine their supply level for the coming months. The records shown in the table provide an excellent opportunity for you to assist them with their forecasting. Month Sales Pounds Tanuary 45 54.3 February 57 63.8 March 32 39.5 April 44 49.8 May 51 52.3 Tune 34 39.9 -What is the three-period weighted moving average for July using the weights 0.5 (most recent), 0.3, and 0.2?

A manager uses the following equation to predict monthly receipts: Yt = 4,000 + 30t. What is the forecast for July of next year if t = 0 in April of this year?

Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame: Period Demand 1 200 2 245 3 190 4 270 5 280 6 300 -Daily highs in Sacramento for the past week (from least to most recent) were: 95, 102, 101, 96, 95, 90 and 92. Develop a forecast for today using a 2-day moving average.

The following data summarizes the historical demand for a product: Month Actual Demand March 20 April 25 May 40 Tune 35 Tuly 30 August 45 -Use a four-period moving average to determine the forecasted demand for July, August, and September.

Sally has been running the following number of ads in the local newspaper to help attract customers into her store. She has also been keeping track of customers who have come into the store as a result of the ads, as well as the amount of money they spend. This is the data from the last 4 weeks: Number of ads Increased sales 16 330 12 270 18 380 14 300 -Determine the equation that relates ads and increased sales.