Question 1

Detecting nonrandomness in errors can be done using:

Accepted Answer

A)  MSEs. 
B)  MAPs. 
C)  control charts. 
D)  correlation coefficients. 
E)  strategies. 
A)  MSEs. 
B)  MAPs. 
C)  control charts. 
D)  correlation coefficients. 
E)  strategies.

Question 2

Using the latest observation in a sequence of data to forecast the next period is:

Accepted Answer

A)  a moving average forecast. 
B)  a naive forecast. 
C)  an exponentially smoothed forecast. 
D)  an associative forecast. 
E)  regression analysis. 
A)  a moving average forecast. 
B)  a naive forecast. 
C)  an exponentially smoothed forecast. 
D)  an associative forecast. 
E)  regression analysis.

Question 3

Data on demand over the last few years are available as follows: $$\begin{array} { l l } 
\text { Time Period } & \text { Demand } \
\hline 7 \text { years ago } & 7 \
6 \text { years ago } & 28 \
\text { 5 years ago } & 21 \
\text { 4 years ago } & 42 \
\text { 3 years ago } & 35 \
\text { 2 years ago } & 56 \
\text { Last year } & 49
\end{array}$$ What is this year's forecast using trend-adjusted (double) smoothing with alpha = .2 and beta = .1, if the forecast for last year was 56, the forecast for two years ago was 46, and the trend estimate for last year's forecast was 7?

Accepted Answer

The answer of Data on demand over the last few...

Question 4

Which phrase most closely describes the Delphi technique?

Accepted Answer

A)  associative forecast 
B)  consumer survey 
C)  series of questionnaires 
D)  developed in India 
E)  historical data 
A)  associative forecast 
B)  consumer survey 
C)  series of questionnaires 
D)  developed in India 
E)  historical data

Question 5

Which of the following is used for constructing a control chart?

Accepted Answer

A)  mean absolute deviation 
B)  mean squared error 
C)  tracking signal 
D)  bias 
A)  mean absolute deviation 
B)  mean squared error 
C)  tracking signal 
D)  bias

Question 6

Which of the following is/are a primary input into capacity, sales, and production planning?

Accepted Answer

A)  product design 
B)  market share 
C)  ethics 
D)  globalization 
E)  demand forecasts 
A)  product design 
B)  market share 
C)  ethics 
D)  globalization 
E)  demand forecasts

Question 7

In order to increase the responsiveness of a forecast made using the moving average technique, the number of data points in the average should be:

Accepted Answer

A)  decreased. 
B)  increased. 
C)  multiplied by a larger alpha. 
D)  multiplied by a smaller alpha. 
E)  eliminated if the MAD is greater than the MSE. 
A)  decreased. 
B)  increased. 
C)  multiplied by a larger alpha. 
D)  multiplied by a smaller alpha. 
E)  eliminated if the MAD is greater than the MSE.

Question 8

When choosing a forecasting technique, a critical trade-off that must be considered is that between:

Accepted Answer

A)  time series and associative. 
B)  seasonality and cyclicality. 
C)  length and duration. 
D)  simplicity and complexity. 
E)  cost and accuracy. 
A)  time series and associative. 
B)  seasonality and cyclicality. 
C)  length and duration. 
D)  simplicity and complexity. 
E)  cost and accuracy.

Question 9

Moving average forecasting techniques do the following:

Accepted Answer

A)  Immediately reflect changing patterns in the data. 
B)  Lead changes in the data. 
C)  Smooth variations in the data. 
D)  Operate independently of recent data. 
E)  Assist when organizations are relocating. 
A)  Immediately reflect changing patterns in the data. 
B)  Lead changes in the data. 
C)  Smooth variations in the data. 
D)  Operate independently of recent data. 
E)  Assist when organizations are relocating.

Question 10

Data on the last three years of demand are available as follows: $$\begin{array} { l l l l l } 
&&& { \text { Season } } \
\text { Year } & \text { Spring } & \text { Summer } & \text { Fall } & \text { Winter } \
\hline  \text { Three years ago } & 18 & 10 & 26 & 42 \
\text { Two years ago } & 26 & 18 & 34 & 50 \
\text { Last year } & 34 & 26 & 42 & 58
\end{array}$$ What is the spring's seasonal relative?

Accepted Answer

The answer of Data on the last three years of...

Question 11

In the additive model for seasonality, seasonality is expressed as a ______________ adjustment to the average; in the multiplicative model, seasonality is expressed as a __________ adjustment to the average.

Accepted Answer

A)  quantity; percentage 
B)  percentage; quantity 
C)  quantity; quantity 
D)  percentage; percentage 
E)  qualitative; quantitative 
A)  quantity; percentage 
B)  percentage; quantity 
C)  quantity; quantity 
D)  percentage; percentage 
E)  qualitative; quantitative

Question 12

In trend-adjusted exponential smoothing, the trend-adjusted forecast consists of:

Accepted Answer

A)  an exponentially smoothed forecast and a smoothed trend factor. 
B)  an exponentially smoothed forecast and an estimated trend value. 
C)  the old forecast adjusted by a trend factor. 
D)  the old forecast and a smoothed trend factor. 
E)  a moving average and a trend factor. 
A)  an exponentially smoothed forecast and a smoothed trend factor. 
B)  an exponentially smoothed forecast and an estimated trend value. 
C)  the old forecast adjusted by a trend factor. 
D)  the old forecast and a smoothed trend factor. 
E)  a moving average and a trend factor.

Question 13

A concert promoter is forecasting this year's attendance for one of his concerts based on the following historical data: $$\begin{array} { l l } 
\text { Year } & \text { Attendance } \
\hline \text { Four years ago } & 10,000 \
\text { Three years ago } & 12,000 \
\text { Two years ago } & 18,000 \
\text { Last Year } & 20,000
\end{array}$$ What is this year's forecast using a two-year weighted moving average with weights of .7 and .3?

Accepted Answer

A)  19,400 
B)  18,600 
C)  19,000 
D)  11,400 
E)  10,600 
A)  19,400 
B)  18,600 
C)  19,000 
D)  11,400 
E)  10,600

Question 14

The business analyst for Video Sales, Inc. wants to forecast this year's demand for DVD decoders based on the following historical data: $$\begin{array} { l l } 
\text { Year } & \text { Demand } \
\hline \text { 5 years ago } & 900 \
\text { 4 years ago } & 700 \
\text { 3 years ago } & 600 \
\text { 2 years ago } & 500 \
\text { Last year } & 300
\end{array}$$ What is the forecast for this year using the least squares trend line for these data?

Accepted Answer

A)  163 
B)  180 
C)  300 
D)  420 
E)  510 
A)  163 
B)  180 
C)  300 
D)  420 
E)  510

Question 15

The use of a control chart assumes that errors are normally distributed about a mean of zero.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 16

Bias exists when forecasts tend to be greater or less than the actual values of time series.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 17

The owner of Darkest Tans Unlimited in a local mall is forecasting this month's (October's) demand for the one new tanning booth based on the following historical data: $$\begin{array} { l l } 
\text { Month } & \text { Number of Visits } \
\hline  \text { April } & 100 \
\text { May } & 140 \
\text { June } & 110 \
\text { July } & 150 \
\text { August } & 120 \
\text { September } & 160
\end{array}$$ What is this month's forecast using exponential smoothing with alpha = .2, if August's forecast was 145?

Accepted Answer

A)  144 
B)  140 
C)  142 
D)  148 
E)  163 
A)  144 
B)  140 
C)  142 
D)  148 
E)  163

Question 18

Simple exponential smoothing is being used to forecast demand. The previous forecast of 66 turned out to be four units less than actual demand. The next forecast is 66.6, implying a smoothing constant, alpha, equal to:

Accepted Answer

A)  .01. 
B)  .10. 
C)  .15. 
D)  .20. 
E)  .60. 
A)  .01. 
B)  .10. 
C)  .15. 
D)  .20. 
E)  .60.

Question 19

A concert promoter is forecasting this year's attendance for one of his concerts based on the following historical data: $$\begin{array} { l l } 
\text { Year } & \text { Attendance } \
\hline \text { Four years ago } & 10,000 \
\text { Three years ago } & 12,000 \
\text { Two years ago } & 18,000 \
\text { Last Year } & 20,000
\end{array}$$ The previous trend line had predicted 18,500 for two years ago, and 19,700 for last year. What was the mean absolute deviation for these forecasts?

Accepted Answer

A)  100 
B)  200 
C)  400 
D)  500 
E)  800 
A)  100 
B)  200 
C)  400 
D)  500 
E)  800

Question 20

The owner of Darkest Tans Unlimited in a local mall is forecasting this month's (October's) demand for the one new tanning booth based on the following historical data: $$\begin{array} { l l } 
\text { Month } & \text { Number of Visits } \
\hline  \text { April } & 100 \
\text { May } & 140 \
\text { June } & 110 \
\text { July } & 150 \
\text { August } & 120 \
\text { September } & 160
\end{array}$$ What is this month's forecast using the least squares trend line for these data?

Accepted Answer

A)  1,250 
B)  128.6 
C)  102 
D)  158 
E)  164 
A)  1,250 
B)  128.6 
C)  102 
D)  158 
E)  164

Detecting nonrandomness in errors can be done using:

Using the latest observation in a sequence of data to forecast the next period is:

Which phrase most closely describes the Delphi technique?

Which of the following is used for constructing a control chart?

Which of the following is/are a primary input into capacity, sales, and production planning?

In order to increase the responsiveness of a forecast made using the moving average technique, the number of data points in the average should be:

When choosing a forecasting technique, a critical trade-off that must be considered is that between:

Moving average forecasting techniques do the following:

Data on the last three years of demand are available as follows: Season Year Spring Summer Fall Winter Three years ago 18 10 26 42 Two years ago 26 18 34 50 Last year 34 26 42 58 What is the spring's seasonal relative?

In the additive model for seasonality, seasonality is expressed as a ____ adjustment to the average; in the multiplicative model, seasonality is expressed as a adjustment to the average.

In trend-adjusted exponential smoothing, the trend-adjusted forecast consists of:

The use of a control chart assumes that errors are normally distributed about a mean of zero.

Bias exists when forecasts tend to be greater or less than the actual values of time series.

Simple exponential smoothing is being used to forecast demand. The previous forecast of 66 turned out to be four units less than actual demand. The next forecast is 66.6, implying a smoothing constant, alpha, equal to:

Introduction to Operations Management

Competitiveness, Strategy, and Productivity

Product and Service Design

Extension: Reliability

Strategic Capacity Planning for Products and Services

Extension: Decision Theory

Process Selection and Facility Layout

Work Design and Measurement

Extension: Learning Curves

Location Planning and Analysis

Extension: The Transportation Model

Management of Quality

Quality Control

Extension: Acceptance Sampling

Aggregate Planning and Master Scheduling

MRP and ERP

Inventory Management

Jit and Lean Operations

Extension: Maintenance

Supply Chain Management

Scheduling

Project Management

Management of Waiting Lines

Linear Programming

Filters

Exam 3: Forecasting

Detecting nonrandomness in errors can be done using:

Using the latest observation in a sequence of data to forecast the next period is:

Which phrase most closely describes the Delphi technique?

Which of the following is used for constructing a control chart?

Which of the following is/are a primary input into capacity, sales, and production planning?

In order to increase the responsiveness of a forecast made using the moving average technique, the number of data points in the average should be:

When choosing a forecasting technique, a critical trade-off that must be considered is that between:

Moving average forecasting techniques do the following:

Data on the last three years of demand are available as follows: Season Year Spring Summer Fall Winter Three years ago 18 10 26 42 Two years ago 26 18 34 50 Last year 34 26 42 58 What is the spring's seasonal relative?

In the additive model for seasonality, seasonality is expressed as a ______________ adjustment to the average; in the multiplicative model, seasonality is expressed as a __________ adjustment to the average.

In trend-adjusted exponential smoothing, the trend-adjusted forecast consists of:

The use of a control chart assumes that errors are normally distributed about a mean of zero.

Bias exists when forecasts tend to be greater or less than the actual values of time series.

Simple exponential smoothing is being used to forecast demand. The previous forecast of 66 turned out to be four units less than actual demand. The next forecast is 66.6, implying a smoothing constant, alpha, equal to:

Introduction to Operations Management

Competitiveness, Strategy, and Productivity

Product and Service Design

Extension: Reliability

Strategic Capacity Planning for Products and Services

Extension: Decision Theory

Process Selection and Facility Layout

Work Design and Measurement

Extension: Learning Curves

Location Planning and Analysis

Extension: The Transportation Model

Management of Quality

Quality Control

Extension: Acceptance Sampling

Aggregate Planning and Master Scheduling

MRP and ERP

Inventory Management

Jit and Lean Operations

Extension: Maintenance

Supply Chain Management

Scheduling

Project Management

Management of Waiting Lines

Linear Programming

Filters

In the additive model for seasonality, seasonality is expressed as a ____ adjustment to the average; in the multiplicative model, seasonality is expressed as a adjustment to the average.