Question 1

Linear regression is not useful for aggregate planning.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 2

The exponential smoothing method requires which of the following data to forecast the future?

Accepted Answer

A)  The most recent forecast 
B)  Precise actual demand for the past several years 
C)  The value of the smoothing constant delta 
D)  Overall industry demand data 
E)  Tracking values 
A)  The most recent forecast 
B)  Precise actual demand for the past several years 
C)  The value of the smoothing constant delta 
D)  Overall industry demand data 
E)  Tracking values

Question 3

Cyclical influences on demand may come from occurrences such as political elections, war, or economic conditions.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 4

You are using an exponential smoothing model for forecasting. The running sum of the forecast error statistics (RSFE) are calculated each time a forecast is generated. You find the last RSFE to be 34. Originally the forecasting model used was selected because it's relatively low MAD of 0.4. To determine when it is time to reevaluate the usefulness of the exponential smoothing model you compute tracking signals. Which of the following is the resulting tracking signal?

Accepted Answer

A)  85 
B)  60 
C)  13.6 
D)  12.9 
E)  8 
A)  85 
B)  60 
C)  13.6 
D)  12.9 
E)  8

Question 5

A time series is defined in the text as chronologically ordered data that may contain one or more components of demand variation: trend, seasonal, cyclical, autocorrelation, and random.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 6

Time series forecasting models make predictions about the future based on analysis of past data.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 7

Which of the following are used to describe the degree of error?

Accepted Answer

A)  Weighted moving average 
B)  Regression 
C)  Moving average 
D)  Forecast as a percent of actual 
E)  Mean absolute deviation 
A)  Weighted moving average 
B)  Regression 
C)  Moving average 
D)  Forecast as a percent of actual 
E)  Mean absolute deviation

Question 8

If a firm produced a standard item with relatively stable demand, the smoothing constant alpha (reaction rate to differences) used in an exponential smoothing forecasting model would tend to be in which of the following ranges?

Accepted Answer

A)  5% to 10% 
B)  20% to 50% 
C)  20% to 80% 
D)  60% to 120% 
E)  90% to 100% 
A)  5% to 10% 
B)  20% to 50% 
C)  20% to 80% 
D)  60% to 120% 
E)  90% to 100%

Question 9

As a consultant, you have been asked to generate a unit demand forecast for a product for year 2018 using exponential smoothing. You have data for the past three years and the forecast and the actual are the same for the first period of your data (3 years ago). Which of the following is most accurate? 
A. Forecast for year 2018 will be higher than the actual for 2017, if your α is close to 1.0
B. Forecast for 2018 will be between all the actual sales
C. Exponential smoothing is a type of weighted average forecasting method

Accepted Answer

A)  Choice A 
B)  Choice B 
C)  Choice C 
D)  Choice B and C only 
E)  None of the above 
A)  Choice A 
B)  Choice B 
C)  Choice C 
D)  Choice B and C only 
E)  None of the above

Question 10

Because the factors governing demand for products are very complex, all forecasts of demand contain error.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 11

A company wants to forecast demand using the simple moving average. If the company uses three prior yearly sales values , which of the following is the simple moving average forecast for year 2018?

Accepted Answer

A)  100.5 
B)  122.5 
C)  133.3 
D)  135.6 
E)  139.3 
A)  100.5 
B)  122.5 
C)  133.3 
D)  135.6 
E)  139.3

Question 12

Using the exponential smoothing model for forecasting, the smoothing constant alpha determines the level of smoothing and

Accepted Answer

A)  the slope of the growth curve. 
B)  the speed of reaction to differences between forecasts and actual results. 
C)  the intercept on the Y-axis. 
D)  the next forecast error. 
E)  a measure of forecast accuracy. 
A)  the slope of the growth curve. 
B)  the speed of reaction to differences between forecasts and actual results. 
C)  the intercept on the Y-axis. 
D)  the next forecast error. 
E)  a measure of forecast accuracy.

Question 13

Exponential smoothing forecasts always lag behind the actual occurrence but can be corrected somewhat with a trend adjustment.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 14

The least squares method refers to

Accepted Answer

A)  a computation in linear regression. 
B)  selecting participants for the Delphi Technique. 
C)  time series decomposition into smaller and smaller units. 
D)  determining the smallest sources of error in a forecast. 
E)  calculating the running sum of forecast errors. 
A)  a computation in linear regression. 
B)  selecting participants for the Delphi Technique. 
C)  time series decomposition into smaller and smaller units. 
D)  determining the smallest sources of error in a forecast. 
E)  calculating the running sum of forecast errors.

Linear regression is not useful for aggregate planning.

The exponential smoothing method requires which of the following data to forecast the future?

Cyclical influences on demand may come from occurrences such as political elections, war, or economic conditions.

A time series is defined in the text as chronologically ordered data that may contain one or more components of demand variation: trend, seasonal, cyclical, autocorrelation, and random.

Time series forecasting models make predictions about the future based on analysis of past data.

Which of the following are used to describe the degree of error?

If a firm produced a standard item with relatively stable demand, the smoothing constant alpha (reaction rate to differences) used in an exponential smoothing forecasting model would tend to be in which of the following ranges?

Because the factors governing demand for products are very complex, all forecasts of demand contain error.

A company wants to forecast demand using the simple moving average. If the company uses three prior yearly sales values , which of the following is the simple moving average forecast for year 2018?

Using the exponential smoothing model for forecasting, the smoothing constant alpha determines the level of smoothing and

Exponential smoothing forecasts always lag behind the actual occurrence but can be corrected somewhat with a trend adjustment.

The least squares method refers to

Operations and Supply Chain Management

Strategy and Sustainability

Strategic Capacity Management

Projects

Manufacturing Processes

Service Processes

Sales and Operations Planning

Material Requirements Planning

Quality Management and Six Sigma

Inventory Management

Lean Supply Chains

Global Sourcing and Procurement

Location, Logistics, and Distribution

Filters

Exam 3: Forecasting

Linear regression is not useful for aggregate planning.

The exponential smoothing method requires which of the following data to forecast the future?

Cyclical influences on demand may come from occurrences such as political elections, war, or economic conditions.

A time series is defined in the text as chronologically ordered data that may contain one or more components of demand variation: trend, seasonal, cyclical, autocorrelation, and random.

Time series forecasting models make predictions about the future based on analysis of past data.

Which of the following are used to describe the degree of error?

If a firm produced a standard item with relatively stable demand, the smoothing constant alpha (reaction rate to differences) used in an exponential smoothing forecasting model would tend to be in which of the following ranges?

Because the factors governing demand for products are very complex, all forecasts of demand contain error.

A company wants to forecast demand using the simple moving average. If the company uses three prior yearly sales values , which of the following is the simple moving average forecast for year 2018?

Using the exponential smoothing model for forecasting, the smoothing constant alpha determines the level of smoothing and

Exponential smoothing forecasts always lag behind the actual occurrence but can be corrected somewhat with a trend adjustment.

The least squares method refers to

Operations and Supply Chain Management

Strategy and Sustainability

Strategic Capacity Management

Projects

Manufacturing Processes

Service Processes

Sales and Operations Planning

Material Requirements Planning

Quality Management and Six Sigma

Inventory Management

Lean Supply Chains

Global Sourcing and Procurement

Location, Logistics, and Distribution

Filters