Exam 3: Forecasting

The weighted moving average forecasting model uses a weighting scheme to modify the effects of individual data points. This is its major advantage over the simple moving average model.

For every forecasting problem there is one best forecasting technique.

In business forecasting, what is usually considered a long-term time period?

Random errors can be defined as those that cannot be explained by the forecast model being used.

A company wants to generate a forecast for unit demand for year 2018 using exponential smoothing. The actual demand in year 2017 was 120. The forecast demand in year 2017 was 110. Using this data and a smoothing constant alpha of 0.1, which of the following is the resulting year 2018 forecast value?

Which of the following forecasting methodologies is considered a qualitative forecasting technique?

A company wants to forecast demand using the simple moving average. The company uses four positive prior yearly (2014, 2015, 2016 and 2017) sales values. All yearly sales figures are unique (no repetitions). Which of the following is most accurate about the moving average forecast for year 2018? A. Has to be smaller than at least one of the four yearly sales figures. B. Has to be larger than at least one of the four yearly sales figures. C. Has to be between the smallest and largest yearly sales figures. D. Has to greater than all four yearly sales figures.

A company wants to forecast demand using the weighted moving average. If the company uses two prior yearly sales values , and we want to weight year 2016 at 10% and year 2017 at 90%, which of the following is the weighted moving average forecast for year 2018?

In business forecasting, what is usually considered a medium-term time period?

Which of the following considerations is not a factor in deciding which forecasting model a firm should choose?

Which one of the following are among the major reasons that exponential smoothing has become well accepted as a forecasting technique?

Random errors in forecasting occur when an undetected secular trend is not included in a forecasting model.

RSFE in forecasting stands for "reliable safety function error."

A company hires you to develop a linear regression forecasting model. Based on the company's historical sales information, you determine the intercept value of the model to be 1,200. You also find the slope value is minus 50. If after developing the model you are given a value of X = 10, which of the following is the resulting forecast value using this model?

In a forecasting model using simple moving average, the shorter the time span used for calculating the moving average, the closer the average follows volatile trends.

In exponential smoothing, it is desirable to use a higher smoothing constant when forecasting demand for a product experiencing high growth.

Which of the following is the portion of observations you would expect to see lying within a plus or minus 3 MAD range?

The value of the smoothing constant alpha in an exponential smoothing model is between 0 and 1.

Bayesian analysis is the simplest way to choose weights for the weighted moving average forecasting model.

If you were selecting from a variety of forecasting models based on MAD, which of the following MAD values from the same data would reflect the most accurate model?