Exam 3: Forecasting

A good forecaster is one who develops special skills and experience at one forecasting technique and is capable of applying it to widely diverse situations.

In decomposition of time series data it is relatively easy identify cycles and autocorrelation components.

Which of the following forecasting methodologies is considered a time series forecasting technique?

As a consultant, you have been thinking about choosing the "right" alpha (smoothing constant) for forecasting using exponential smoothing. Which of the following is most accurate about alpha? A. If alpha is high, speed of reaction to changes in actually low. B. If a firm produces standard product with relatively stable demand, alpha should be small. C. Products experiencing growth should be assigned higher alpha value. D. Alpha could be more than 1.0, and in this case (1-alpha) will become negative to make up for it.

A tracking signal (TS) can be calculated using the arithmetic sum of forecast deviations divided by the MAD.

Given a prior forecast demand value of 230, a related actual demand value of 250, and a smoothing constant alpha of 0.1, what is the exponential smoothing forecast value for the following period?

Which of the following is not one of the basic forecasting types discussed in the text?

If a firm produced a product that was experiencing growth in demand, the smoothing constant alpha (reaction rate to differences) used in an exponential smoothing forecasting model would tend to be which of the following?

A company has calculated its running sum of forecast errors to be 500 and its mean absolute deviation is exactly 35. Which of the following is the company's tracking signal?

In time series data depicting demand which of the following is not considered a component of demand variation?

In a forecasting model using simple exponential smoothing the data pattern should remain stationary.

Exponential smoothing is always the best and most accurate of all forecasting models.

Qualitative forecasting techniques generally take advantage of the knowledge of experts and therefore do not require much judgment.

A central premise of exponential smoothing is that more recent data is less indicative of the future than data from the distant past.

A restriction in using linear regression is that it assumes that past data and future projections fall on or near a straight line.

Which of the following is a possible source of bias error in forecasting?

conflicting objectives between the profit-maximizing vendor and the cost-minimizing customer give rise to adversarial supply chain relationships.

Cyclical influences on demand are often expressed graphically as a linear function that is either upward or downward sloping.

If the intercept value of a linear regression model is 40, the slope value is 40, and the value of X is 40, which of the following is the resulting forecast value using this model?

A company wants to forecast demand using the simple moving average. If the company uses four prior yearly sales values , which of the following is the simple moving average forecast for year 2018?