Question 1

Combination forecasting is a method of forecasting that selects the best from a group of forecasts generated by simple techniques.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 2

Table 14.3
Columbia Appliance sells and delivers appliances in the Columbia,South Carolina area.The Operations and Supply Chain Manager wants to be able to predict the delivery crew's hours for easier scheduling.The delivery crew,consisting of a truck and two workers,must load the truck each day and then drive the truck to various locations to deliver appliances.Variables each day include miles driven and the number of deliveries made.The manager has collected data for the past five weeks,and has recorded the following average daily crew hours worked,miles driven and deliveries made:
   The manager uses the multiple regression model in POM for Windows and obtains the following results:  
-Use the information provided in Table 14.3.If 10 extra miles of driving is added to the crew's daily work,how much time is added to their work schedule for that day? (Assume all other variables are held constant. )

Accepted Answer

A) 30 minutes 
B) 2.4 minutes 
C) 24 minutes 
D) 48 minutes 
A) 30 minutes 
B) 2.4 minutes 
C) 24 minutes 
D) 48 minutes

Question 3

________ is the prediction of future events used for planning purposes.

Accepted Answer

The answer of ________ is the prediction of future events...

Question 4

Table 14.11
A sales manager wants to forecast monthly sales of the machines the company makes using the following monthly sales data.
  
-Use the information in Table 14.11.Use the 3-month weighted moving-average method to calculate the forecast for month 9.The weights are 0.60,0.30,and 0.10,where 0.60 refers to the most recent demand.

Accepted Answer

A) $3,916 
B) $3,880 
C) $3,396 
D) $3,229 
A) $3,916 
B) $3,880 
C) $3,396 
D) $3,229

Question 5

What are reasonable criteria for selecting one time-series method over another?

Accepted Answer

Forecast error measures provide importan

Question 6

________ is a time-series method used to estimate the average of a demand time series by averaging the demand for the n most recent time periods.

Accepted Answer

Simple mov

Question 7

________ selects the best forecast from a group of forecasts generated by individual techniques.

Accepted Answer

The answer of ________ selects the best forecast from a...

Question 8

What is the difference between mean absolute deviation (MAD)and mean squared error (MSE)?

Accepted Answer

Both MAD and MSE are measurements of the

Question 9

Aggregating products or services together generally decreases the forecast accuracy.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 10

Which one of the following statements about forecasting is TRUE?

Accepted Answer

A) The five basic patterns of demand are the horizontal,trend,seasonal,cyclical,and the subjective judgment of forecasters. 
B) Judgment methods are particularly appropriate for situations in which historical data are lacking. 
C) Casual methods are used when historical data are available and the relationship between the factor to be forecast and other external and internal factors cannot be identified. 
D) Focused forecasting is a technique that focuses on one particular component of demand and develops a forecast from it. 
A) The five basic patterns of demand are the horizontal,trend,seasonal,cyclical,and the subjective judgment of forecasters. 
B) Judgment methods are particularly appropriate for situations in which historical data are lacking. 
C) Casual methods are used when historical data are available and the relationship between the factor to be forecast and other external and internal factors cannot be identified. 
D) Focused forecasting is a technique that focuses on one particular component of demand and develops a forecast from it.

Question 11

The causal method of forecasting uses historical data on independent variables (such as promotional campaigns and economic conditions)to predict the demand of dependent variables (such as sales volume).

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 12

The Delphi method of forecasting is useful when:

Accepted Answer

A) judgment and opinion are the only bases for making informed projections 
B) a systematic approach to creating and testing hypotheses is needed and the data are usually gathered by sending a questionnaire to consumers 
C) historical data are available and the relationship between the factor to be forecast and other external or internal factors can be identified 
D) historical data is available and the best basis for making projections is to use past demand patterns 
A) judgment and opinion are the only bases for making informed projections 
B) a systematic approach to creating and testing hypotheses is needed and the data are usually gathered by sending a questionnaire to consumers 
C) historical data are available and the relationship between the factor to be forecast and other external or internal factors can be identified 
D) historical data is available and the best basis for making projections is to use past demand patterns

Question 13

Use the data and graph shown below for the following questions.    
-Refer to the instruction above.Which term most accurately describes the data points associated with Saturdays and Sundays?

Accepted Answer

A) nonbase data 
B) outliers 
C) seasons 
D) erroneous 
A) nonbase data 
B) outliers 
C) seasons 
D) erroneous

Question 14

________ is a causal method of forecasting in which one variable is related to one or more variables by a linear equation.

Accepted Answer

The answer of ________ is a causal method of forecasting...

Question 15

A(n)________ is a measure that indicates whether a method of forecasting is accurately predicting actual changes in demand.

Accepted Answer

The answer of A(n)________ is a measure that indicates whether...

Question 16

The dispersion of forecast errors is measured by both MAD and MSE,which behave differently in the way they emphasize errors.________ gives larger weight to errors and ________ gives smaller weight to errors.

Accepted Answer

The answer of The dispersion of forecast errors is measured...

Question 17

Forecasting is a(n)________ that should continually be reviewed for improvements.

Accepted Answer

The answer of Forecasting is a(n)________ that should continually be...

Question 18

Table 14.13
The manager of a pizza shop must forecast weekly demand for special pizzas so that he can order pizza shells weekly.Recent demand has been:
  
-Use the information from Table 14.13.If a three-week weighted moving average were used,what would be the forecast for week 7? (The weights are 0.60,0.30,and 0.10 with 0.60 applied to the most recent period and 0.10 applied to the oldest period. )

Accepted Answer

A) 38.1 pizzas 
B) 40.1 pizzas 
C) 42.0 pizzas 
D) 44.0 pizzas 
A) 38.1 pizzas 
B) 40.1 pizzas 
C) 42.0 pizzas 
D) 44.0 pizzas

Question 19

Demands for a newly developed salad bar at the Great Professional restaurant for the first six months of this year are shown in the following table.What is the forecast for July if the 3-month weighted moving-average method is used? (Use weights of 0.5 for the most recent demand,0.3,and 0.2 for the oldest demand. )

Accepted Answer

A) fewer than or equal to 432 units 
B) greater than 432 units but fewer than or equal to 442 units 
C) greater than 442 units but fewer than or equal to 452 units 
D) greater than 452 
A) fewer than or equal to 432 units 
B) greater than 432 units but fewer than or equal to 442 units 
C) greater than 442 units but fewer than or equal to 452 units 
D) greater than 452

Question 20

Table 14.6  
-Use the information in Table 14.6.Compute a three-week moving-average forecast for the arrival of medical clinic patients in week 5.

Accepted Answer

A) fewer than or equal to 382 
B) greater than 382 but fewer than or equal to 389 
C) greater than 389 but fewer than or equal to 396 
D) greater than 396 
A) fewer than or equal to 382 
B) greater than 382 but fewer than or equal to 389 
C) greater than 389 but fewer than or equal to 396 
D) greater than 396

Exam 14: Forecasting

Combination forecasting is a method of forecasting that selects the best from a group of forecasts generated by simple techniques.

________ is the prediction of future events used for planning purposes.

What are reasonable criteria for selecting one time-series method over another?

________ is a time-series method used to estimate the average of a demand time series by averaging the demand for the n most recent time periods.

________ selects the best forecast from a group of forecasts generated by individual techniques.

What is the difference between mean absolute deviation (MAD)and mean squared error (MSE)?

Aggregating products or services together generally decreases the forecast accuracy.

Which one of the following statements about forecasting is TRUE?

The causal method of forecasting uses historical data on independent variables (such as promotional campaigns and economic conditions)to predict the demand of dependent variables (such as sales volume).

The Delphi method of forecasting is useful when:

Use the data and graph shown below for the following questions. -Refer to the instruction above.Which term most accurately describes the data points associated with Saturdays and Sundays?

________ is a causal method of forecasting in which one variable is related to one or more variables by a linear equation.

A(n)________ is a measure that indicates whether a method of forecasting is accurately predicting actual changes in demand.

The dispersion of forecast errors is measured by both MAD and MSE,which behave differently in the way they emphasize errors.________ gives larger weight to errors and ________ gives smaller weight to errors.

Forecasting is a(n)________ that should continually be reviewed for improvements.

Table 14.6 -Use the information in Table 14.6.Compute a three-week moving-average forecast for the arrival of medical clinic patients in week 5.

Using Operations to Compete

Project Management

Process Strategy

Process Analysis

Quality and Performance

Capacity Planning

Constraint Management

Lean Systems

Supply Chain Inventory Management

Supply Chain Design

Supply Chain Location Decisions

Supply Chain Integration

Supply Chain Sustainability and Humanitarian Logistics

Operations Planning and Scheduling

Resource Planning

Decision Making

Waiting Line

Special Inventory Models

Linear Programming

Simulation

Financial Analysis

Acceptance Sampling Plans

Measuring Output Rates

Learning Curve Analysis

Operations Scheduling

Filters

The dispersion of forecast errors is measured by both MAD and MSE,which behave differently in the way they emphasize errors. gives larger weight to errors and gives smaller weight to errors.