Question 1

The Acme Computer Company has recorded sales of one of its products for a six-week period:   Using the three-week moving-average method,forecast sales for week 7.

Accepted Answer

A) 20 
B) 21 
C) 22 
D) 23 
A) 20 
B) 21 
C) 22 
D) 23

Question 2

The number of #2 pencils the bookstore sells appears to be highly correlated with the number of student credit hours each semester.The bookstore manager wants to create a linear regression model to assist her in placing an appropriate order.In this scenario:

Accepted Answer

A) the dependent variable is student credit hours 
B) there are two independent variables 
C) there are two dependent variables 
D) the independent variable is student credit hours 
A) the dependent variable is student credit hours 
B) there are two independent variables 
C) there are two dependent variables 
D) the independent variable is student credit hours

Question 3

A regression equation with a coefficient of determination near one would be most likely to occur when the data demonstrated a:

Accepted Answer

A) seasonal demand pattern. 
B) trend demand pattern. 
C) cyclical demand pattern. 
D) random demand pattern. 
A) seasonal demand pattern. 
B) trend demand pattern. 
C) cyclical demand pattern. 
D) random demand pattern.

Question 4

Your team has been asked to develop a forecast for the need for storage in the company's communication devices ten years from now.What method would develop the best forecast? Why? How would you execute this method?

Accepted Answer

Since you are tasked with developing a t

Question 5

Table 14.7  
-Use the information in Table 14.7.The forecasting equation for a three-month weighted moving average is: Ft = W1Dt + W2Dt - 1 + W3Dt - 2
If the sales for June were 40 units and the weights are W1= 1/2,W2 = 1/3,and W3 = 1/6,what is the forecast for July?

Accepted Answer

A) fewer than or equal to 30 units 
B) greater than 30 but fewer than or equal to 33 units 
C) greater than 33 but fewer than or equal to 36 units 
D) greater than 36 units 
A) fewer than or equal to 30 units 
B) greater than 30 but fewer than or equal to 33 units 
C) greater than 33 but fewer than or equal to 36 units 
D) greater than 36 units

Question 6

When the underlying mean of a time series is very stable and there are no trend,cyclical,or seasonal influences:

Accepted Answer

A) a simple moving-average forecast with n = 20 should outperform a simple moving-average forecast with n = 3. 
B) a simple moving-average forecast with n = 3 should outperform a simple moving-average forecast with n = 15. 
C) a simple moving-average forecast with n = 20 should perform about the same as a simple moving-average forecast with n = 3. 
D) an exponential smoothing forecast with a = 0.30 should outperform a simple moving-average forecast with α = 0.01. 
A) a simple moving-average forecast with n = 20 should outperform a simple moving-average forecast with n = 3. 
B) a simple moving-average forecast with n = 3 should outperform a simple moving-average forecast with n = 15. 
C) a simple moving-average forecast with n = 20 should perform about the same as a simple moving-average forecast with n = 3. 
D) an exponential smoothing forecast with a = 0.30 should outperform a simple moving-average forecast with α = 0.01.

Question 7

Table 14.13
The manager of a pizza shop must forecast weekly demand for special pizzas so that he can order pizza shells weekly.Recent demand has been:
  
-Use the information from Table 14.13.The pizza shop manager believes that a combination forecast might improve her ability to predict future demand,and thus improve keeping fresh ingredients on hand.She decides to use the 3-week weighted moving average and exponentially smoothed average forecast (problems # 126 and 127),giving them equal weight.What is her forecast for week #7?

Accepted Answer

A) 38.75 pizzas 
B) 40.8 pizzas 
C) 42.25 pizzas 
D) 44.8 pizzas 
A) 38.75 pizzas 
B) 40.8 pizzas 
C) 42.25 pizzas 
D) 44.8 pizzas

Question 8

The ________ measure of forecast errors puts the size of the error in appropriate context by forming the ratio of the average forecast error to the average ________.

Accepted Answer

The answer of The ________ measure of forecast errors puts...

Question 9

Which one of the following statements about forecasting is FALSE?

Accepted Answer

A) The method for incorporating a trend into an exponentially smoothed forecast requires the estimation of three smoothing constants: one for the mean,one for the trend,and one for the error. 
B) The cumulative sum of forecast errors (CF
E) is useful in measuring the bias in a forecast. 
C) The standard deviation and the mean absolute deviation measure the dispersion of forecast errors. 
D) A tracking signal is a measure that indicates whether a method of forecasting has any built-in biases over a period of time. 
A) The method for incorporating a trend into an exponentially smoothed forecast requires the estimation of three smoothing constants: one for the mean,one for the trend,and one for the error. 
B) The cumulative sum of forecast errors (CF
E) is useful in measuring the bias in a forecast. 
C) The standard deviation and the mean absolute deviation measure the dispersion of forecast errors. 
D) A tracking signal is a measure that indicates whether a method of forecasting has any built-in biases over a period of time.

Question 10

________ methods of forecasting translate the opinions of management,experts,consumers,or salesforce into quantitative estimates.

Accepted Answer

The answer of ________ methods of forecasting translate the opinions...

Question 11

Use the data and graph shown below for the following questions.    
-Refer to the instruction above.What is the seasonal index for the first Saturday in the data set?

Accepted Answer

A) 1.69 
B) 1.56 
C) 0.64 
D) 0.58 
A) 1.69 
B) 1.56 
C) 0.64 
D) 0.58

Question 12

The ________ is a process of gaining consensus from a group of experts while maintaining their anonymity.

Accepted Answer

The answer of The ________ is a process of gaining...

Question 13

The Bahouth Company wants to develop a sales forecast for a fast-selling new product line it has introduced,in order to help plan future production.The following information has been gathered by the Marketing Department.The past weekly average is 4,200 and the trend has been 250 additional units per week.This week's demand was 4,600 units.Using trend adjusted exponential smoothing,calculate the forecasted sales for next week? (Suppose α = 0.20 and β= 0.40. )

Accepted Answer

At-1 = 4,200 α = 0.2
Tt-1 = 25

Question 14

Describe the combination forecast techniques and discuss how they have been shown to perform in recent studies.

Accepted Answer

Combination forecasts are forecasts that

Question 15

Table 14.1
The Agricultural Extension Agent's Office has tracked fertilizer application and crop yields for a variety of chickpea and has recorded the data shown in the following table.Their staff statistician developed the regression model and computed the performance statistics displayed below the data.  
-Use the information provided in Table 14.1.For every unit of fertilizer applied,the crop yield increases by:

Accepted Answer

A) 8.0 bushels. 
B) 8.5 bushels. 
C) 8.9 bushels. 
D) 7.9 bushels. 
A) 8.0 bushels. 
B) 8.5 bushels. 
C) 8.9 bushels. 
D) 7.9 bushels.

Question 16

The demand for an item over the last year is plotted below.Develop a forecast and explain why your approach is reasonable.

Accepted Answer

The data were generated using the functi

Question 17

A local moving company has collected data on the number of moves they have been asked to perform over the past three years.Moving is highly seasonal,so the owner/operator,who is both burly and highly educated,decides to apply the multiplicative seasonal method (based on a linear regression for total demand)to forecast the number of customers for the coming year.What is his forecast for each quarter?

Accepted Answer

The seasonal factor calculations for eac

Question 18

A systematic increase or decrease in the mean of the series over time is a(n)________.

Accepted Answer

The answer of A systematic increase or decrease in the...

Question 19

Which one of the following is most useful for measuring the bias in a forecast?

Accepted Answer

A) cumulative sum of forecast errors 
B) standard deviation of forecast errors 
C) mean absolute deviation of forecast errors 
D) percentage forecast error in period t 
A) cumulative sum of forecast errors 
B) standard deviation of forecast errors 
C) mean absolute deviation of forecast errors 
D) percentage forecast error in period t

Question 20

Salesforce estimates are extremely useful for technological forecasting.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Exam 14: Forecasting

The Acme Computer Company has recorded sales of one of its products for a six-week period: Using the three-week moving-average method,forecast sales for week 7.

The number of #2 pencils the bookstore sells appears to be highly correlated with the number of student credit hours each semester.The bookstore manager wants to create a linear regression model to assist her in placing an appropriate order.In this scenario:

A regression equation with a coefficient of determination near one would be most likely to occur when the data demonstrated a:

Your team has been asked to develop a forecast for the need for storage in the company's communication devices ten years from now.What method would develop the best forecast? Why? How would you execute this method?

Table 14.7 -Use the information in Table 14.7.The forecasting equation for a three-month weighted moving average is: Ft = W1Dt + W2Dt - 1 + W3Dt - 2 If the sales for June were 40 units and the weights are W1= 1/2,W2 = 1/3,and W3 = 1/6,what is the forecast for July?

When the underlying mean of a time series is very stable and there are no trend,cyclical,or seasonal influences:

The ________ measure of forecast errors puts the size of the error in appropriate context by forming the ratio of the average forecast error to the average ________.

Which one of the following statements about forecasting is FALSE?

________ methods of forecasting translate the opinions of management,experts,consumers,or salesforce into quantitative estimates.

Use the data and graph shown below for the following questions. -Refer to the instruction above.What is the seasonal index for the first Saturday in the data set?

The ________ is a process of gaining consensus from a group of experts while maintaining their anonymity.

Describe the combination forecast techniques and discuss how they have been shown to perform in recent studies.

The demand for an item over the last year is plotted below.Develop a forecast and explain why your approach is reasonable.

A systematic increase or decrease in the mean of the series over time is a(n)________.

Which one of the following is most useful for measuring the bias in a forecast?

Salesforce estimates are extremely useful for technological forecasting.

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The measure of forecast errors puts the size of the error in appropriate context by forming the ratio of the average forecast error to the average .