Question 1

Cyclical patterns arise from ________ and ________.

Accepted Answer

the business cycle,t

Question 2

The repeated observations of demand for a product or service in their order of occurrence form a pattern known as a time series.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 3

Regression equations with a coefficient of determination close to zero are extremely accurate because they have little forecast error.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 4

The larger the slope of the regression line,the more accurate the regression forecast.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 5

Table 14.9
  
-Use the information in Table 14.9.Use the exponential smoothing method with = 0.5 and a February forecast of 500 to forecast the sales for May.

Accepted Answer

A) fewer than or equal to 530 
B) greater than 530 but fewer than or equal to 540 
C) greater than 540 but fewer than or equal to 550 
D) greater than 550 
A) fewer than or equal to 530 
B) greater than 530 but fewer than or equal to 540 
C) greater than 540 but fewer than or equal to 550 
D) greater than 550

Question 6

Pho Bulous,a Vietnamese restaurant in the bustling metropolis of Edmond,has had great success using forecasting techniques to predict demand for their main menu items ever since they opened their doors.Their forecast for last month was grossly inaccurate and so far this month,their forecast appears to be just as bad as last month's.It's already time to prepare the forecast for next month,what should they do about their model?

Accepted Answer

The answer depends on whether Pho Bulous

Question 7

Which one of the following statements about forecasting is FALSE?

Accepted Answer

A) You should use the simple moving-average method to estimate the mean demand of a time series that has a pronounced trend and seasonal influences. 
B) The weighted moving-average method allows forecasters to emphasize recent demand over earlier demand.The forecast will be more responsive to change in the underlying average of the demand series. 
C) The most frequently used time-series forecasting method is exponential smoothing because of its simplicity and the small amount of data needed to support it. 
D) In exponential smoothing,higher values of alpha place greater weight on recent demands in computing the average. 
A) You should use the simple moving-average method to estimate the mean demand of a time series that has a pronounced trend and seasonal influences. 
B) The weighted moving-average method allows forecasters to emphasize recent demand over earlier demand.The forecast will be more responsive to change in the underlying average of the demand series. 
C) The most frequently used time-series forecasting method is exponential smoothing because of its simplicity and the small amount of data needed to support it. 
D) In exponential smoothing,higher values of alpha place greater weight on recent demands in computing the average.

Question 8

The electricity bill at Padco was driven solely by the lights throughout the office;everything else was driven by alternative energy sources.The office was open roughly 8 hours a day,five days a week and the cleaning crew spent about the same amount of time in the offices each week night.The kilowatt hour usage for the office was best described as a:

Accepted Answer

A) horizontal demand pattern. 
B) random demand pattern. 
C) seasonal demand pattern. 
D) cyclical demand pattern. 
A) horizontal demand pattern. 
B) random demand pattern. 
C) seasonal demand pattern. 
D) cyclical demand pattern.

Question 9

Table 14.3
Columbia Appliance sells and delivers appliances in the Columbia,South Carolina area.The Operations and Supply Chain Manager wants to be able to predict the delivery crew's hours for easier scheduling.The delivery crew,consisting of a truck and two workers,must load the truck each day and then drive the truck to various locations to deliver appliances.Variables each day include miles driven and the number of deliveries made.The manager has collected data for the past five weeks,and has recorded the following average daily crew hours worked,miles driven and deliveries made:
   The manager uses the multiple regression model in POM for Windows and obtains the following results:  
-Use the information provided in Table 14.3.What is the estimated work time for the crew if the schedule that day calls for 90 driving miles and 4 deliveries?

Accepted Answer

A) 8.1 hours 
B) 9.2 hours 
C) 8.9 hours 
D) 8.5 hours 
A) 8.1 hours 
B) 9.2 hours 
C) 8.9 hours 
D) 8.5 hours

Question 10

There are historically three 32-month periods of generally rising prices in the stock market for every one 9-month period of falling prices.This observation leads you to conclude that the stock market exhibits a:

Accepted Answer

A) random pattern. 
B) trend pattern 
C) seasonal pattern. 
D) cyclical pattern. 
A) random pattern. 
B) trend pattern 
C) seasonal pattern. 
D) cyclical pattern.

Question 11

Table 14.11
A sales manager wants to forecast monthly sales of the machines the company makes using the following monthly sales data.
  
-Use the information in Table 14.11.What is the forecast for period 9 using a naive forecast.

Accepted Answer

A) $3,728 
B) $3,803 
C) $4,442 
D) $4,085 
A) $3,728 
B) $3,803 
C) $4,442 
D) $4,085

Question 12

Table 14.2
A textbook publisher for books used in business schools believes that the number of books sold is related to the number of campus visits to decision makers made by their sales force.A sampling of the number of sales calls made and the number of books sold is shown in the following table.
    
-Use the information provided in Table 14.2.For every sale call made,the number of books sold increases by:

Accepted Answer

A) 14.74 books. 
B) 104.6 books. 
C) 83.30 books. 
D) 7.25 books. 
A) 14.74 books. 
B) 104.6 books. 
C) 83.30 books. 
D) 7.25 books.

Question 13

A linear regression model is developed that has a slope of -2.5 and an intercept of 10.The sample coefficient of determination is 0.50.Which of the following statements is TRUE?

Accepted Answer

A) The sample correlation coefficient must be 0.250. 
B) The sample correlation coefficient must be -0.707. 
C) The sample correlation coefficient must be -0.250. 
D) The sample correlation coefficient must be 1.00. 
A) The sample correlation coefficient must be 0.250. 
B) The sample correlation coefficient must be -0.707. 
C) The sample correlation coefficient must be -0.250. 
D) The sample correlation coefficient must be 1.00.

Question 14

Which one of the following is an example of causal forecasting technique?

Accepted Answer

A) weighted moving average 
B) linear regression 
C) exponential smoothing 
D) Delphi method 
A) weighted moving average 
B) linear regression 
C) exponential smoothing 
D) Delphi method

Question 15

What are the steps of the forecasting process as described in the text?

Accepted Answer

The authors describe a six-step forecast

Question 16

Calculate three forecasts using the following data.First,for periods 4 through 10,develop the exponentially smoothed forecasts using a forecast for period 3 (F3)of 45.0 and an alpha of 0.4.Second,calculate the three-period moving-average forecast for periods 4 through 10.Third,calculate the weighted moving average for periods 4 through 10,using weights of .70,.20,and .10,with 0.70 applied to the most recent data.Calculate the mean absolute deviation (MAD)and the cumulative sum of forecast error (CFE)for each forecasting procedure.Which forecasting procedure would you select? Why?

Accepted Answer

@#IMG-DLM& @#IMG-DLM& Using MAD,the simple moving

Question 17

Table 14.10
TOMBOW is a small manufacturer of pencils and has had the following sales record for the most recent five months:   Use an exponential smoothing model to forecast sales in months 2,3,4,and 5.Let the smoothing parameter equal 0.6;select F1 = 150 to get the forecast started.
-Use the information in Table 14.10.The forecast for month 2 is:

Accepted Answer

A) fewer than or equal to 120 units. 
B) greater than 120 but fewer than or equal to 140 units. 
C) greater than 140 but fewer than or equal to 160 units. 
D) greater than 160 units. 
A) fewer than or equal to 120 units. 
B) greater than 120 but fewer than or equal to 140 units. 
C) greater than 140 but fewer than or equal to 160 units. 
D) greater than 160 units.

Question 18

It would be most appropriate to combine a judgment approach to forecasting with a quantitative approach by:

Accepted Answer

A) having a group of experts examine each historical data point to determine whether it should be included in the model. 
B) combining opinions about the quantitative models to form one forecasting approach. 
C) adjusting a forecast up or down to compensate for specific events not included in the quantitative technique. 
D) developing a trend model to predict the outcomes of judgmental techniques in order to avoid the cost of employing the experts. 
A) having a group of experts examine each historical data point to determine whether it should be included in the model. 
B) combining opinions about the quantitative models to form one forecasting approach. 
C) adjusting a forecast up or down to compensate for specific events not included in the quantitative technique. 
D) developing a trend model to predict the outcomes of judgmental techniques in order to avoid the cost of employing the experts.

Question 19

How is a typical forecasting process similar to the Plan-Do-Study-Act (PDSA)cycle? (See Chapter 5 for more information on PDSA)

Accepted Answer

The authors indicate that forecasting is

Question 20

Table 14.13
The manager of a pizza shop must forecast weekly demand for special pizzas so that he can order pizza shells weekly.Recent demand has been:
  
-Use the information from Table 14.13.The pizza shop manager believes that a combination forecast might improve her ability to predict future demand,and thus improve keeping fresh ingredients on hand.She decides to use the 3-week simple moving average and exponentially smoothed average forecast (problems # 125 and 127),giving them equal weight.What is her forecast for week #7?

Accepted Answer

A) 35.5 pizzas 
B) 37.4 pizzas 
C) 38.2 pizzas 
D) 40.2 pizzas 
A) 35.5 pizzas 
B) 37.4 pizzas 
C) 38.2 pizzas 
D) 40.2 pizzas

Cyclical patterns arise from and .

The repeated observations of demand for a product or service in their order of occurrence form a pattern known as a time series.

Regression equations with a coefficient of determination close to zero are extremely accurate because they have little forecast error.

The larger the slope of the regression line,the more accurate the regression forecast.

Table 14.9 -Use the information in Table 14.9.Use the exponential smoothing method with = 0.5 and a February forecast of 500 to forecast the sales for May.

Which one of the following statements about forecasting is FALSE?

There are historically three 32-month periods of generally rising prices in the stock market for every one 9-month period of falling prices.This observation leads you to conclude that the stock market exhibits a:

Table 14.11 A sales manager wants to forecast monthly sales of the machines the company makes using the following monthly sales data. -Use the information in Table 14.11.What is the forecast for period 9 using a naive forecast.

A linear regression model is developed that has a slope of -2.5 and an intercept of 10.The sample coefficient of determination is 0.50.Which of the following statements is TRUE?

Which one of the following is an example of causal forecasting technique?

What are the steps of the forecasting process as described in the text?

It would be most appropriate to combine a judgment approach to forecasting with a quantitative approach by:

How is a typical forecasting process similar to the Plan-Do-Study-Act (PDSA)cycle? (See Chapter 5 for more information on PDSA)

Using Operations to Compete

Project Management

Process Strategy

Process Analysis

Quality and Performance

Capacity Planning

Constraint Management

Lean Systems

Supply Chain Inventory Management

Supply Chain Design

Supply Chain Location Decisions

Supply Chain Integration

Supply Chain Sustainability and Humanitarian Logistics

Operations Planning and Scheduling

Resource Planning

Decision Making

Waiting Line

Special Inventory Models

Linear Programming

Simulation

Financial Analysis

Acceptance Sampling Plans

Measuring Output Rates

Learning Curve Analysis

Operations Scheduling

Filters

Exam 14: Forecasting

Cyclical patterns arise from ________ and ________.

The repeated observations of demand for a product or service in their order of occurrence form a pattern known as a time series.

Regression equations with a coefficient of determination close to zero are extremely accurate because they have little forecast error.

The larger the slope of the regression line,the more accurate the regression forecast.

Table 14.9 -Use the information in Table 14.9.Use the exponential smoothing method with = 0.5 and a February forecast of 500 to forecast the sales for May.

Which one of the following statements about forecasting is FALSE?

There are historically three 32-month periods of generally rising prices in the stock market for every one 9-month period of falling prices.This observation leads you to conclude that the stock market exhibits a:

Table 14.11 A sales manager wants to forecast monthly sales of the machines the company makes using the following monthly sales data. -Use the information in Table 14.11.What is the forecast for period 9 using a naive forecast.

A linear regression model is developed that has a slope of -2.5 and an intercept of 10.The sample coefficient of determination is 0.50.Which of the following statements is TRUE?

Which one of the following is an example of causal forecasting technique?

What are the steps of the forecasting process as described in the text?

It would be most appropriate to combine a judgment approach to forecasting with a quantitative approach by:

How is a typical forecasting process similar to the Plan-Do-Study-Act (PDSA)cycle? (See Chapter 5 for more information on PDSA)

Using Operations to Compete

Project Management

Process Strategy

Process Analysis

Quality and Performance

Capacity Planning

Constraint Management

Lean Systems

Supply Chain Inventory Management

Supply Chain Design

Supply Chain Location Decisions

Supply Chain Integration

Supply Chain Sustainability and Humanitarian Logistics

Operations Planning and Scheduling

Resource Planning

Decision Making

Waiting Line

Special Inventory Models

Linear Programming

Simulation

Financial Analysis

Acceptance Sampling Plans

Measuring Output Rates

Learning Curve Analysis

Operations Scheduling

Filters

Cyclical patterns arise from and .