Exam 14: Forecasting

Table 14.6 -Use the information in Table 14.6.If the actual number of patients is 415 in week 5,what is the forecast for week 6,using a three-week moving-average forecast?

________ are often the result of neglecting or not accurately estimating patterns of demand such as a trend,seasonal,or cyclical pattern.

Table 14.13 The manager of a pizza shop must forecast weekly demand for special pizzas so that he can order pizza shells weekly.Recent demand has been: -Use the information from Table 14.13.What is the exponentially smoothed forecast for week #7 if α = 0.9 is used,and the forecast for week #6 was 34?

Use the data and graph shown below for the following questions. -Refer to the instruction above.What is the average demand for the second period?

Barney took what he liked to call "the shotgun approach" to forecasting.Every period he tried a number of different forecasting approaches and at the end of the period he reviewed all of the forecasts to see which was the most accurate.The winner would be used for next period's forecast (but he still made forecasts all possible ways so he could use the system again for the following period).The more formal name for this technique is:

Andy took what he liked to call "the sheriff without a gun" approach to forecasting.Every period he tried a number of different forecasting approaches and simply averaged the predictions for all of the techniques.This overall average was the official forecast for the period.The more formal name for this technique is:

Table 14.12 The management of an insurance company monitors the number of mistakes made by telephone service representatives for a company they have subcontracted with.The number of mistakes for the past several months appears in this table along with forecasts for errors made with three different forecasting techniques.The column labeled Exponential was created using exponential smoothing with an alpha of 0.30.The column labeled MA is forecast using a moving average of three periods.The column labeled WMA uses a 3-month weighted moving average with weights of 0.65,0.25,and 0.10 for the most-to-least recent months. -Using Table 14.12,what is the MAD for months 6-10 for the exponential smoothing technique?

Time-series forecasts require information about only the dependent variable.

The trend projection with regression model can forecast demand well into the future.

Polly Prognosticator was the greatest quantitative forecaster in recorded history.A skillful user of all techniques in your chapter on forecasting,she knew better than to try and develop a forecast for data that exhibited a:

Demand for a new five-inch color TV during the last six periods has been as follows: What is the forecast for period 7 if the company uses the simple moving-average method with n = 4?

Table 14.1 The Agricultural Extension Agent's Office has tracked fertilizer application and crop yields for a variety of chickpea and has recorded the data shown in the following table.Their staff statistician developed the regression model and computed the performance statistics displayed below the data. -Use the information in Table 14.1.If the correlation coefficient were negative,what would also be true?

Table 14.5 The manager of a pizza shop must forecast weekly demand for special pizzas so that he can order pizza shells weekly.Recent demand has been: -Use the information from Table 14.5.Using a three-week moving average,what is the forecast for week 7?

A(n)________ measures the direction and strength between the independent variable and the dependent variable.

Judgment methods of forecasting should never be used with quantitative forecasting methods.

Table 14.4 The Furniture Super Mart is a furniture retailer in Evansville,Indiana.The Marketing Manager wants to prepare a media budget based on the next quarter's business plan.The manager wants to decide the mix of radio advertising and newspaper advertising needed to generate varying levels of Weekly Gross Revenue.The manager has collected data for the past five weeks,and has recorded the following average Weekly Gross Revenues and expenditures for Weekly Radio (X1)and Newspaper (X2)advertising: The Manager uses the multiple regression model in OM Explorer and obtains the following results: -Use the information provided in Table 14.4.Adding $1,000 of Weekly Radio Advertising (X1)can be expected to increase Weekly Gross Revenues by what amount? (Assume all other variables are held constant. )

The ________ variable is the variable that one wants to forecast.

Table 14.10 TOMBOW is a small manufacturer of pencils and has had the following sales record for the most recent five months: Use an exponential smoothing model to forecast sales in months 2,3,4,and 5.Let the smoothing parameter equal 0.6;select F1 = 150 to get the forecast started. -Use the information in Table 14.10.The cumulative sum of errors (CFE)from months 2 through 5 is:

A simple moving average of one period will yield identical results to a naive forecast.

Table 14.3 Columbia Appliance sells and delivers appliances in the Columbia,South Carolina area.The Operations and Supply Chain Manager wants to be able to predict the delivery crew's hours for easier scheduling.The delivery crew,consisting of a truck and two workers,must load the truck each day and then drive the truck to various locations to deliver appliances.Variables each day include miles driven and the number of deliveries made.The manager has collected data for the past five weeks,and has recorded the following average daily crew hours worked,miles driven and deliveries made: The manager uses the multiple regression model in POM for Windows and obtains the following results: -Use the information provided in Table 14.3.If one delivery is added to the crew's daily work,how much time is added to their work schedule for that day? (Assume all other variables are held constant. )