Question 1

Forecasts

Accepted Answer

A)  become more accurate with longer time horizons 
B)  are rarely perfect 
C)  are more accurate for individual items than for groups of items 
D)  all of the above 
E)  none of the above 
A)  become more accurate with longer time horizons 
B)  are rarely perfect 
C)  are more accurate for individual items than for groups of items 
D)  all of the above 
E)  none of the above

Question 2

Which of the following techniques uses variables such as price and promotional expenditures, which are related to product demand, to predict demand?

Accepted Answer

A)  associative models 
B)  exponential smoothing 
C)  weighted moving average 
D)  simple moving average 
E)  time series 
A)  associative models 
B)  exponential smoothing 
C)  weighted moving average 
D)  simple moving average 
E)  time series

Question 3

What is the forecast for May based on a weighted moving average applied to the following past demand data and using the weights: 4, 3, 2 (largest weight is for most recent data)?
 $$\begin{array} { | l | l | l | l | l | l | } 
\hline \text { Nov. } & \text { Dec. } & \text { Tan. } & \text { Feb. } & \text { Mar. } & \text { April } \
\hline 37 & 36 & 40 & 42 & 47 & 43 \
\hline
\end{array}$$

Accepted Answer

2x42 + 3x47 + 4x43 =

Question 4

Computer monitoring of tracking signals and self-adjustment if a signal passes a preset limit is characteristic of

Accepted Answer

A)  exponential smoothing including trend 
B)  adaptive smoothing 
C)  trend projection 
D)  focus forecasting 
E)  multiple regression analysis 
A)  exponential smoothing including trend 
B)  adaptive smoothing 
C)  trend projection 
D)  focus forecasting 
E)  multiple regression analysis

Question 5

Given an actual demand of 103, a previous forecast value of 99, and an alpha of .4, the exponential smoothing forecast for the next period would be

Accepted Answer

A)  94.6 
B)  97.4 
C)  100.6 
D)  101.6 
E)  103.0 
A)  94.6 
B)  97.4 
C)  100.6 
D)  101.6 
E)  103.0

Question 6

A restaurant has tracked the number of meals served at lunch over the last four weeks. The data shows little in terms of trends, but does display substantial variation by day of the week. Use the following information to determine the seasonal (daily) index for this restaurant.
 $$\begin{array} { | l | l | l | l | l | } 
\hline & { \text { Week } } \
\hline \text { Day } & 1 & 2 & 3 & 4 \
\hline \text { Sunday } & 40 & 35 & 39 & 43 \
\hline \text { Monday } & 54 & 55 & 51 & 59 \
\hline \text { Tuesday } & 61 & 60 & 65 & 64 \
\hline \text { Wednesday } & 72 & 77 & 78 & 69 \
\hline \text { Thursday } & 89 & 80 & 81 & 79 \
\hline \text { Friday } & 91 & 90 & 99 & 95 \
\hline \text { Saturday } & 80 & 82 & 81 & 83 \
\hline
\end{array}$$

Accepted Answer

The answer of A restaurant has tracked the number of...

Question 7

Identify four quantitative forecasting methods.

Accepted Answer

The list includes naive, movin

Question 8

Most forecasting techniques assume that there is some underlying stability in the system.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 9

Given forecast errors of -1, 4, 8, and -3, what is the mean absolute deviation?

Accepted Answer

A)  2 
B)  3 
C)  4 
D)  8 
E)  16 
A)  2 
B)  3 
C)  4 
D)  8 
E)  16

Question 10

__________ forecasts employ one or more mathematical models that rely on historical data and/or associative variables to forecast demand.

Accepted Answer

The answer of __________ forecasts employ one or more mathematical...

Question 11

Which of the following uses three types of participants: decision makers, staff personnel, and respondents?

Accepted Answer

A)  executive opinions 
B)  sales force composites 
C)  the Delphi method 
D)  associative models 
E)  time series analysis 
A)  executive opinions 
B)  sales force composites 
C)  the Delphi method 
D)  associative models 
E)  time series analysis

Question 12

Identify three advantages of the moving average forecasting model. Identify three disadvantages of the moving average forecasting model.

Accepted Answer

Three advantages of the model are that i

Question 13

Arnold Tofu owns and operates a chain of 12 vegetable protein "hamburger" restaurants in northern Louisiana. Sales figures and profits for the stores are in the table below. Sales are given in millions of dollars; profits are in hundreds of thousands of dollars. Calculate a regression line for the data. What is your forecast of profit for a store with sales of $24 million?
 $30 million?
 $$\begin{array} { | c | c | c | } 
\hline \text { Store } & \text { Profits } & \text { Sales } \
\hline 1 & 14 & 6 \
\hline 2 & 11 & 3 \
\hline 3 & 15 & 5 \
\hline 4 & 16 & 5 \
\hline 5 & 24 & 15 \
\hline 6 & 28 & 18 \
\hline 7 & 22 & 17 \
\hline 8 & 21 & 12 \
\hline 9 & 26 & 15 \
\hline 10 & 43 & 20 \
\hline 11 & 34 & 14 \
\hline 12 & 9 & 5 \
\hline
\end{array}$$

Accepted Answer

Students must recognize that "sales" is

Question 14

Yamaha manufactures which set of products with complementary demands to address seasonal fluctuations?

Accepted Answer

A)  golf clubs and skis 
B)  swimming suits and winter jackets 
C)  jet skis and snowmobiles 
D)  pianos and guitars 
E)  ice skates and water skis 
A)  golf clubs and skis 
B)  swimming suits and winter jackets 
C)  jet skis and snowmobiles 
D)  pianos and guitars 
E)  ice skates and water skis

Question 15

What two numbers are contained in the daily report to the CEO of Walt Disney Parks & Resorts regarding the six Orlando parks?

Accepted Answer

A)  yesterday's forecasted attendance and yesterday's actual attendance 
B)  yesterday's actual attendance and today's forecasted attendance 
C)  yesterday's forecasted attendance and today's forecasted attendance 
D)  yesterday's actual attendance and last year's actual attendance 
E)  yesterday's forecasted attendance and the year-to-date average daily forecast error 
A)  yesterday's forecasted attendance and yesterday's actual attendance 
B)  yesterday's actual attendance and today's forecasted attendance 
C)  yesterday's forecasted attendance and today's forecasted attendance 
D)  yesterday's actual attendance and last year's actual attendance 
E)  yesterday's forecasted attendance and the year-to-date average daily forecast error

Question 16

What does it mean to "decompose" a time series?

Accepted Answer

To decompose a time series mea

Question 17

Many services maintain records of sales noting

Accepted Answer

A)  the day of the week 
B)  unusual events 
C)  weather 
D)  holidays 
E)  all of the above 
A)  the day of the week 
B)  unusual events 
C)  weather 
D)  holidays 
E)  all of the above

Question 18

Many service firms use point-of-sale computers to collect detailed records needed for accurate short-term forecasts.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 19

A skeptical manager asks what long-range forecasts can be used for. Give her three possible uses/purposes.

Accepted Answer

Any three of: planning new pro

Question 20

The last four weekly values of sales were 80, 100, 105, and 90 units. The last four forecasts (for the same four weeks) were 60, 80, 95, and 75 units. Calculate MAD, MSE, and MAPE for these four weeks.
 $$\begin{array} { | c | c | c | c | c | } 
\hline \text { Sales } & \text { Forecast } & \text { Error } & \text { Error squared } & \text { Pct. error } \
\hline 80 & 60 & 20 & 400 & .25 \
\hline 100 & 80 & 20 & 400 & .20 \
\hline 105 & 95 & 10 & 100 & .095 \
\hline 90 & 75 & 15 & 225 & .167 \
\hline
\end{array}$$

Accepted Answer

MAD = 65/4 = 16.25;

Exam 4: Forecasting

Forecasts

Which of the following techniques uses variables such as price and promotional expenditures, which are related to product demand, to predict demand?

What is the forecast for May based on a weighted moving average applied to the following past demand data and using the weights: 4, 3, 2 (largest weight is for most recent data)? Nov. Dec. Tan. Feb. Mar. April 37 36 40 42 47 43

Computer monitoring of tracking signals and self-adjustment if a signal passes a preset limit is characteristic of

Given an actual demand of 103, a previous forecast value of 99, and an alpha of .4, the exponential smoothing forecast for the next period would be

Identify four quantitative forecasting methods.

Most forecasting techniques assume that there is some underlying stability in the system.

Given forecast errors of -1, 4, 8, and -3, what is the mean absolute deviation?

__________ forecasts employ one or more mathematical models that rely on historical data and/or associative variables to forecast demand.

Which of the following uses three types of participants: decision makers, staff personnel, and respondents?

Identify three advantages of the moving average forecasting model. Identify three disadvantages of the moving average forecasting model.

Yamaha manufactures which set of products with complementary demands to address seasonal fluctuations?

What two numbers are contained in the daily report to the CEO of Walt Disney Parks & Resorts regarding the six Orlando parks?

What does it mean to "decompose" a time series?

Many services maintain records of sales noting

Many service firms use point-of-sale computers to collect detailed records needed for accurate short-term forecasts.

A skeptical manager asks what long-range forecasts can be used for. Give her three possible uses/purposes.

Operations and Productivity

Operations Strategy in a Global Environment

Project Management

Design of Goods and Services

Managing Quality

Statistical Process Control

Process Strategy

Capacity and Constraint Management

Location Strategies

Layout Strategies

Human Resources, Job Design, and Work Measurement

Supply-Chain Management

Outsourcing as a Supply-Chain Strategy

Inventory Management

Aggregate Planning

Material Requirements Planning MRP and ERP

Short-Term Scheduling

Just-In-Time and Lean Options

Maintenance and Reliability

Decision-Making Tools

Linear Programming

Transportation Models

Waiting-Line Models

Learning Curves

Simulation

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