Question 1

__________ expresses the error as a percent of the actual values, undistorted by a single large value.

Accepted Answer

A)  MAD 
B)  MSE 
C)  MAPE 
D)  FIT 
E)  The smoothing constant 
A)  MAD 
B)  MSE 
C)  MAPE 
D)  FIT 
E)  The smoothing constant

Question 2

Which time-series model below assumes that demand in the next period will be equal to the most recent period's demand?

Accepted Answer

A)  naive approach 
B)  moving average approach 
C)  weighted moving average approach 
D)  exponential smoothing approach 
E)  none of the above 
A)  naive approach 
B)  moving average approach 
C)  weighted moving average approach 
D)  exponential smoothing approach 
E)  none of the above

Question 3

Given an actual demand of 61, a previous forecast of 58, and an alpha of .3, what would the forecast for the next period be using simple exponential smoothing?

Accepted Answer

A)  45.5 
B)  57.1 
C)  58.9 
D)  61.0 
E)  65.5 
A)  45.5 
B)  57.1 
C)  58.9 
D)  61.0 
E)  65.5

Question 4

A forecast with a time horizon of about 3 months to 3 years is typically called a

Accepted Answer

A)  long-range forecast 
B)  medium-range forecast 
C)  short-range forecast 
D)  weather forecast 
E)  strategic forecast 
A)  long-range forecast 
B)  medium-range forecast 
C)  short-range forecast 
D)  weather forecast 
E)  strategic forecast

Question 5

If a barbershop operator noted that Tuesday's business was typically twice as heavy as Wednesday's, and that Friday's business was typically the busiest of the week, business at the barbershop is subject to __________.

Accepted Answer

The answer of If a barbershop operator noted that Tuesday's...

Question 6

__________ forecasts use a series of past data points to make a forecast.

Accepted Answer

The answer of __________ forecasts use a series of past...

Question 7

Which of the following values of alpha would cause exponential smoothing to respond the most slowly to forecast errors?

Accepted Answer

A)  0.10 
B)  0.20 
C)  0.40 
D)  0.80 
E)  cannot be determined 
A)  0.10 
B)  0.20 
C)  0.40 
D)  0.80 
E)  cannot be determined

Question 8

A skeptical manager asks what short-range forecasts can be used for. Give her three possible uses/purposes.

Accepted Answer

Any three of: planning purchas

Question 9

Which of the following statements comparing the weighted moving average technique and exponential smoothing is true?

Accepted Answer

A)  Exponential smoothing is more easily used in combination with the Delphi method. 
B)  More emphasis can be placed on recent values using the weighted moving average. 
C)  Exponential smoothing is considerably more difficult to implement on a computer. 
D)  Exponential smoothing typically requires less record keeping of past data. 
E)  Exponential smoothing allows one to develop forecasts for multiple periods, whereas weighted moving averages does not. 
A)  Exponential smoothing is more easily used in combination with the Delphi method. 
B)  More emphasis can be placed on recent values using the weighted moving average. 
C)  Exponential smoothing is considerably more difficult to implement on a computer. 
D)  Exponential smoothing typically requires less record keeping of past data. 
E)  Exponential smoothing allows one to develop forecasts for multiple periods, whereas weighted moving averages does not.

Question 10

Which of the following most requires long-range forecasting (as opposed to short-range or medium-range forecasting) for its planning purposes?

Accepted Answer

A)  job scheduling 
B)  production levels 
C)  cash budgeting 
D)  capital expenditures 
E)  purchasing 
A)  job scheduling 
B)  production levels 
C)  cash budgeting 
D)  capital expenditures 
E)  purchasing

Question 11

Give an example-other than a restaurant or other food-service firm-of an organization that experiences an hourly seasonal pattern. (That is, each hour of the day has a pattern that tends to repeat day after day.) Explain.

Accepted Answer

Answer will vary. Ho

Question 12

__________ forecasts address the business cycle by predicting inflation rates, money supplies, housing starts, and other planning indicators.

Accepted Answer

The answer of __________ forecasts address the business cycle by...

Question 13

What is a tracking signal?
 Explain the connection between adaptive smoothing and tracking signals.

Accepted Answer

A tracking signal is a measure of how we

Question 14

A seasonal index for a monthly series is about to be calculated on the basis of three years' accumulation of data. The three previous July values were 110, 135, and 130. The average over all months is 160. The approximate seasonal index for July is:

Accepted Answer

(110 + 135

Question 15

Increasing the number of periods in a moving average will accomplish greater smoothing, but at the expense of

Accepted Answer

A)  manager understanding 
B)  accuracy 
C)  stability 
D)  responsiveness to changes 
E)  All of the above are diminished when the number of periods increases. 
A)  manager understanding 
B)  accuracy 
C)  stability 
D)  responsiveness to changes 
E)  All of the above are diminished when the number of periods increases.

Question 16

What is the difference between an associative model and a time-series model?

Accepted Answer

A time-series model uses only historical

Question 17

A six-month moving average forecast is generally better than a three-month moving average forecast if demand

Accepted Answer

A)  is rather stable 
B)  has been changing due to recent promotional efforts 
C)  follows a downward trend 
D)  exceeds one million units per year 
E)  follows an upward trend 
A)  is rather stable 
B)  has been changing due to recent promotional efforts 
C)  follows a downward trend 
D)  exceeds one million units per year 
E)  follows an upward trend

Question 18

What is a time-series forecasting model?

Accepted Answer

A time-series forecasting mode

Question 19

An innovative restaurateur owns and operates a dozen "Ultimate Low-Carb" restaurants in northern Arkansas. His signature item is a cheese-encrusted beef medallion wrapped in lettuce. Sales (X, in millions of dollars) is related to Profits (Y, in hundreds of thousands of dollars) by the regression equation Y = 8.21 + 0.76 X. What is your forecast of profit for a store with sales of $40 million?
 $50 million?

Accepted Answer

Students must recognize that sales is th

Question 20

__________ are useful if we can assume that market demands will stay fairly steady over time.

Accepted Answer

The answer of __________ are useful if we can assume...

Exam 4: Forecasting

__________ expresses the error as a percent of the actual values, undistorted by a single large value.

Which time-series model below assumes that demand in the next period will be equal to the most recent period's demand?

Given an actual demand of 61, a previous forecast of 58, and an alpha of .3, what would the forecast for the next period be using simple exponential smoothing?

A forecast with a time horizon of about 3 months to 3 years is typically called a

If a barbershop operator noted that Tuesday's business was typically twice as heavy as Wednesday's, and that Friday's business was typically the busiest of the week, business at the barbershop is subject to __________.

__________ forecasts use a series of past data points to make a forecast.

Which of the following values of alpha would cause exponential smoothing to respond the most slowly to forecast errors?

A skeptical manager asks what short-range forecasts can be used for. Give her three possible uses/purposes.

Which of the following statements comparing the weighted moving average technique and exponential smoothing is true?

Which of the following most requires long-range forecasting (as opposed to short-range or medium-range forecasting) for its planning purposes?

Give an example-other than a restaurant or other food-service firm-of an organization that experiences an hourly seasonal pattern. (That is, each hour of the day has a pattern that tends to repeat day after day.) Explain.

__________ forecasts address the business cycle by predicting inflation rates, money supplies, housing starts, and other planning indicators.

What is a tracking signal? Explain the connection between adaptive smoothing and tracking signals.

A seasonal index for a monthly series is about to be calculated on the basis of three years' accumulation of data. The three previous July values were 110, 135, and 130. The average over all months is 160. The approximate seasonal index for July is:

Increasing the number of periods in a moving average will accomplish greater smoothing, but at the expense of

What is the difference between an associative model and a time-series model?

A six-month moving average forecast is generally better than a three-month moving average forecast if demand

What is a time-series forecasting model?

__________ are useful if we can assume that market demands will stay fairly steady over time.

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