Exam 6: Probability

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Initial estimates of the probabilities of events are known as:

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The collection of all possible outcomes of an experiment is called:

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The ____________________ rule is used to calculate the probability of the union of two events.

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NARRBEGIN: Drunk Drivers Drunk Drivers Five hundred accidents that occurred on a Saturday night were analyzed. Two items noted were the number of vehicles involved and whether alcohol played a role in the accident. The numbers are shown below: number of Vehieles inovelved Did alohol play a role? 1 2 3 Totals Yes 75 125 50 250 No 50 225 75 350 Totals 125 350 125 600 NARREND -{Drunk Drivers Narrative} Given alcohol was involved, what proportion of accidents involved a single vehicle?

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A and B are disjoint events, with P(A) = 0.20 and P(B) = 0.30. Then P(A and B) is:

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The intersection of events A and B is the event that occurs when:

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NARRBEGIN: Messenger Service Messenger Service Three messenger services deliver to a small town in Oregon. Service A has 60% of all the scheduled deliveries, service B has 30%, and service C has the remaining 10%. Their on-time rates are 80%, 60%, and 40% respectively. Define event O as a service delivers a package on time.NARREND -{Messenger Service Narrative} Calculate P(B and O).

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NARRBEGIN: Marital Status Marital Status An insurance company has collected the following data on the gender and marital status of 300 customers. Marite Status Gander Single Maried Divorced Male 25 125 30 Female 50 50 20 Suppose that a customer is selected at random.NARREND -{Marital Status Narrative} Find the probability that the customer selected is female or divorced.

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NARRBEGIN: Messenger Service Messenger Service Three messenger services deliver to a small town in Oregon. Service A has 60% of all the scheduled deliveries, service B has 30%, and service C has the remaining 10%. Their on-time rates are 80%, 60%, and 40% respectively. Define event O as a service delivers a package on time.NARREND -{Messenger Service Narrative} Calculate P(A and O).

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NARRBEGIN: GPA and Class GPA and Class A college professor classifies his students according to their grade point average (GPA) and their class rank. GPA is on a 0.0-4.0 scale, and class rank is defined as the under class (freshmen and sophomores) and the upper class (juniors and seniors). One student is selected at random. GPA Class Under 2.0 2.0- 3. 0 Over 3.0 Under 0.05 0.25 0.10 Upper 0.10 0.30 0.20 NARREND -{GPA and Class Narrative} What is the probability that the student is in the lower class and has GPA over 3.0?

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NARRBEGIN: Cysts Cysts After researching cysts of a particular type, a doctor learns that out of 10,000 such cysts examined, 1,500 are malignant and 8,500 are benign. A diagnostic test is available which is accurate 80% of the time (whether the cyst is malignant or not). The doctor has discovered the same type of cyst in a patient.NARREND -{Cysts Narrative} What is the probability that the patient has a malignant cyst if he or she tests negative?

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NARRBEGIN: College Professorship College Professorship A Ph.D. graduate has applied for a job with two colleges: A and B. The graduate feels that she has a 60% chance of receiving an offer from college A and a 50% chance of receiving an offer from college B. If she receives an offer from college B, she believes that she has an 80% chance of receiving an offer from college A. Let A = receiving an offer from college A, and let B = receiving an offer from college B.NARREND -{College Professorship Narrative} What is the probability that both colleges will make her an offer?

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NARRBEGIN: Club Members Club Members A survey of a club's members indicates that 50% own a home, 80% own a car, and 90% of the homeowners who subscribe also own a car.NARREND -{Club Members Narrative} What is the probability that a subscriber owns both a car and a house?

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P(A|B) is the conditional probability of ____________________ given ____________________.

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Of the last 500 customers entering a supermarket, 50 have purchased a wireless phone. If the relative frequency approach for assigning probabilities is used, the probability that the next customer will purchase a wireless phone is

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NARRBEGIN: Club Members Club Members A survey of a club's members indicates that 50% own a home, 80% own a car, and 90% of the homeowners who subscribe also own a car.NARREND -{Club Members Narrative} What is the probability that a club member owns a car or a house, or both?

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If either event A or event B must occur, they are called mutually exclusive.

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Two events A and B are independent if P(A and B) = 0.

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If A and B are independent events with P(A) = 0.60 and P(B) = 0.70, then P(A or B) equals:

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NARRBEGIN: Marital Status Marital Status An insurance company has collected the following data on the gender and marital status of 300 customers. Marite Status Gander Single Maried Divorced Male 25 125 30 Female 50 50 20 Suppose that a customer is selected at random.NARREND -{Marital Status Narrative} Are gender and marital status mutually exclusive? Explain using probabilities.

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