Exam 6: Probability

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NARRBEGIN: Marital Status Marital Status An insurance company has collected the following data on the gender and marital status of 600 customers. Marital Status Gender Single Maried Divorced Male 50 250 30 Female 100 100 40 Suppose that a customer is selected at random.NARREND -{Marital Status Narrative} Find the probability that the customer selected is a.female and single b.married if the customer is male. c.not single

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Posterior probabilities can be calculated using the addition rule for mutually exclusive events.

(True/False)
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Which of the following statements is correct if the events A and B have nonzero probabilities?

(Multiple Choice)
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NARRBEGIN: Messenger Service Messenger Service Three messenger services deliver to a small town in Oregon. Service A has 60% of all the scheduled deliveries, service B has 30%, and service C has the remaining 10%. Their on-time rates are 80%, 60%, and 40% respectively. Define event O as a service delivers a package on time.NARREND -{Messenger Service Narrative} If a package was delivered 40 minutes late, what is the probability that it was service C?

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When A and B are mutually exclusive, P(A or B) can be found by adding P(A) and P(B).

(True/False)
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NARRBEGIN: Financial Consultants Financial Consultants A Financial Consultant has classified his clients according to their gender and the composition of their investment portfolio (primarily bonds, primarily stocks, or a balanced mix of bonds and stocks). The proportions of clients falling into the various categories are shown in the following table: Portfolio Composition Gender Bonds Stecks Balanced Male 0.18 0.20 0.25 Female 0.12 0.10 0.15 One client is selected at random, and two events A and B are defined as follows: A: The client selected is male.B: The client selected has a balanced portfolio.NARREND -{Financial Consultants Narrative} Find P(A and B).

(Short Answer)
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If two events are mutually exclusive, their joint probability is ____________________.

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If two events are collectively exhaustive, what is the probability that both occur at the same time?

(Multiple Choice)
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A sample space of an experiment consists of the following outcomes: 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5. Which of the following is a simple event?

(Multiple Choice)
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If A and B are disjoint events with P(A) = 0.70, then P(B):

(Multiple Choice)
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If two events are mutually exclusive, what is the probability that both occur at the same time?

(Multiple Choice)
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Two events A and B are said to be independent if P(A) = P(A|B).

(True/False)
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The outcomes of a sample space must be ____________________ and ____________________.

(Essay)
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NARRBEGIN: College Professorship College Professorship A Ph.D. graduate has applied for a job with two colleges: A and B. The graduate feels that she has a 60% chance of receiving an offer from college A and a 50% chance of receiving an offer from college B. If she receives an offer from college B, she believes that she has an 80% chance of receiving an offer from college A. Let A = receiving an offer from college A, and let B = receiving an offer from college B.NARREND -{College Professorship Narrative} If she receives an offer from college B, what is the probability that she will not receive an offer from college A?

(Short Answer)
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Two or more events are said to be independent when the occurrence of one event has no effect on the probability that another will occur.

(True/False)
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NARRBEGIN: Pets Cars Suppose X = the number of cars owned by a family in the U.S. The probability distribution of X is shown in the table below. X 0 1 2 3 Probability 0.56 0.23 0.12 0.09 NARREND -{Cars Narrative} Suppose you choose two families at random. What is the chance that they each own one car? (That means family A owns a car and family B owns a car.)

(Multiple Choice)
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If A and B are ____________________ then the probability of the union of A and B is the sum of their individual probabilities.

(Short Answer)
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Alana, Eva, and Stephanie, three candidates for the presidency of a college's student body, are to address a student forum. The forum's organizer is to select the order in which the candidates will give their speeches, and must do so in such a way that each possible order is equally likely to be selected. a.What is the random experiment? b.List the outcomes in the sample space. c.Assign probabilities to the outcomes. d.What is the probability that Stephanie will speak first? e.What is the probability that Alana will speak before Stephanie does?

(Essay)
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NARRBEGIN: Condo Sales and Interest Condo Sales and Interest Rates The probability that condo sales will increase in the next 6 months is estimated to be 0.30. The probability that the interest rates on condo loans will go up in the same period is estimated to be 0.75. The probability that condo sales or interest rates will go up during the next 6 months is estimated to be 0.90.NARREND -{Condo Sales and Interest Rates Narrative} What is the probability that both condo sales and interest rates will increase during the next six months?

(Short Answer)
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If two equally likely events A and B are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive, what is the probability that event A occurs?

(Multiple Choice)
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