Exam 6: Probability

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The outcomes of a sample space must be ____________________, which means that no two outcomes can occur at the same time.

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NARRBEGIN: Drunk Drivers Drunk Drivers Five hundred accidents that occurred on a Saturday night were analyzed. Two items noted were the number of vehicles involved and whether alcohol played a role in the accident. The numbers are shown below: number of Vehieles inovelved Did alohol play a role? 1 2 3 Totals Yes 75 125 50 250 No 50 225 75 350 Totals 125 350 125 600 NARREND -{Drunk Drivers Narrative} If alcohol was not involved, what proportion of the accidents were multiple vehicle?

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You think you have a 90% chance of passing your next advanced financial accounting exam. This is an example of subjective approach to probability.

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NARRBEGIN: College Professorship College Professorship A Ph.D. graduate has applied for a job with two colleges: A and B. The graduate feels that she has a 60% chance of receiving an offer from college A and a 50% chance of receiving an offer from college B. If she receives an offer from college B, she believes that she has an 80% chance of receiving an offer from college A. Let A = receiving an offer from college A, and let B = receiving an offer from college B.NARREND -A survey of a magazine's subscribers indicates that 50% own a house, 80% own a car, and 90% of the homeowners also own a car. What proportion of subscribers: a.own both a car and a house? b.own a car or a house, or both? c.own neither a car nor a house?

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NARRBEGIN: Construction Bids Construction Bids A construction company has submitted bids on two separate state contracts, A and B. The company feels that it has a 60% chance of winning contract A, and a 50% chance of winning contract B. Furthermore, the company believes that it has an 80% chance of winning contract A if it wins contract B.NARREND -{Construction Bids Narrative} If the company wins contract B, what is the probability that it will not win contract A?

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Bayes' Law can be used to calculate posterior probabilities, prior probabilities, as well as new conditional probabilities.

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Julius and Gabe go to a show during their Spring break and toss a balanced coin to see who will pay for the tickets. The probability that Gabe will pay three days in a row is 0.125.

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NARRBEGIN: Drunk Drivers Drunk Drivers Five hundred accidents that occurred on a Saturday night were analyzed. Two items noted were the number of vehicles involved and whether alcohol played a role in the accident. The numbers are shown below: number of Vehieles inovelved Did alohol play a role? 1 2 3 Totals Yes 75 125 50 250 No 50 225 75 350 Totals 125 350 125 600 NARREND -Suppose A and B are two independent events for which P(A) = 0.20 and P(B) = 0.60. a.Find P(A|B). b.Find P(B|A).

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If two events are mutually exclusive their joint probability is ____________________.

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NARRBEGIN: Business Majors Business Majors Suppose 30% of business majors major in accounting. You take a random sample of 3 business majors.NARREND -{Business Majors Narrative} What is the chance that none of them major in accounting?

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If A and B are independent, then P(A|B) = ____________________.

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NARRBEGIN: Mutual Fund Price Mutual Fund Price An investor estimates that there is a 75% chance that a particular mutual fund's price will increase to $100 per share over the next three weeks, based past data.NARREND -The sample space of the toss of a balanced coin is S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}. If the die is balanced, each simple event (outcome) has the same probability. Find the probability of the following events: a.Rolling an odd number b.Rolling a number less than or equal to 3 c.Rolling a number greater than or equal to 5 d.Rolling a number between 2 and 5, inclusive.

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Which of the following best describes the concept of marginal probability?

(Multiple Choice)
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Bayes' Law is a formula for revising an initial subjective (prior) probability value on the basis of new results, thus obtaining a new (posterior) probability value.

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If A and B are ____________________ events, the joint probability of A and B is the product of the probabilities of those two events.

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NARRBEGIN: Construction Bids Construction Bids A construction company has submitted bids on two separate state contracts, A and B. The company feels that it has a 60% chance of winning contract A, and a 50% chance of winning contract B. Furthermore, the company believes that it has an 80% chance of winning contract A if it wins contract B.NARREND -{Construction Bids Narrative} What is the probability that the company will win both contracts?

(Short Answer)
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NARRBEGIN: Construction Bids Construction Bids A construction company has submitted bids on two separate state contracts, A and B. The company feels that it has a 60% chance of winning contract A, and a 50% chance of winning contract B. Furthermore, the company believes that it has an 80% chance of winning contract A if it wins contract B.NARREND -{Construction Bids Narrative} What is the probability that the company will win at least one of the two contracts?

(Essay)
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NARRBEGIN: Financial Consultants Financial Consultants A Financial Consultant has classified his clients according to their gender and the composition of their investment portfolio (primarily bonds, primarily stocks, or a balanced mix of bonds and stocks). The proportions of clients falling into the various categories are shown in the following table: Portfolio Composition Gender Bonds Stecks Balanced Male 0.18 0.20 0.25 Female 0.12 0.10 0.15 One client is selected at random, and two events A and B are defined as follows: A: The client selected is male.B: The client selected has a balanced portfolio.NARREND -{Financial Consultants Narrative} Express each of the following events in words: a.A or B b.A and B

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NARRBEGIN: Messenger Service Messenger Service Three messenger services deliver to a small town in Oregon. Service A has 60% of all the scheduled deliveries, service B has 30%, and service C has the remaining 10%. Their on-time rates are 80%, 60%, and 40% respectively. Define event O as a service delivers a package on time.NARREND -{Messenger Service Narrative} If a package was delivered on time, what is the probability that it was service A?

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If A and B are any two events with P(A) = .8 and P(B|Ac) = .7, then P(Ac and B) is

(Multiple Choice)
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