Exam 6: Probability

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If joint, marginal, and conditional probabilities are available, only joint probabilities can be used to determine whether two events are dependent or independent.

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NARRBEGIN: CertificationTest Certification Test A standard certification test was given at three locations. 1,000 candidates took the test at location A, 600 candidates at location B, and 400 candidates at location C. The percentages of candidates from locations A, B, and C who passed the test were 70%, 68%, and 77%, respectively. One candidate is selected at random from among those who took the test.NARREND -{Certification Test Narrative} What is the probability that the selected candidate passed the test?

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The probability of event A gives event B is denoted by

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NARRBEGIN: Messenger Service Messenger Service Three messenger services deliver to a small town in Oregon. Service A has 60% of all the scheduled deliveries, service B has 30%, and service C has the remaining 10%. Their on-time rates are 80%, 60%, and 40% respectively. Define event O as a service delivers a package on time.NARREND -{Messenger Service Narrative} If a package was delivered on time, what is the probability that it was service B?

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Which of the following statements is false regarding a scenario using Bayes' Law?

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NARRBEGIN: Drunk Drivers Drunk Drivers Five hundred accidents that occurred on a Saturday night were analyzed. Two items noted were the number of vehicles involved and whether alcohol played a role in the accident. The numbers are shown below: number of Vehieles inovelved Did alohol play a role? 1 2 3 Totals Yes 75 125 50 250 No 50 225 75 350 Totals 125 350 125 600 NARREND -{Drunk Drivers Narrative} If multiple vehicles were involved, what proportion of accidents involved alcohol?

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Which of the following is a requirement of the probabilities assigned to outcome Oi?

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NARRBEGIN: Pets Cars Suppose X = the number of cars owned by a family in the U.S. The probability distribution of X is shown in the table below. X 0 1 2 3 Probability 0.56 0.23 0.12 0.09 NARREND -{Car Narrative}What is the chance that a family owns more than one car?

(Multiple Choice)
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If P(A) = 0.25 and P(B) = 0.65, then P(A and B) is:

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We can apply the multiplication rule to compute the probability that two events occur at the same time.

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NARRBEGIN: Messenger Service Messenger Service Three messenger services deliver to a small town in Oregon. Service A has 60% of all the scheduled deliveries, service B has 30%, and service C has the remaining 10%. Their on-time rates are 80%, 60%, and 40% respectively. Define event O as a service delivers a package on time.NARREND -{Messenger Service Narrative} If a package was delivered 40 minutes late, what is the probability that it was service A?

(Essay)
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Suppose P(A) = 0.60, P(B) = 0.85, and A and B are independent. The probability of the complement of the event (A and B) is:

(Multiple Choice)
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NARRBEGIN: Drunk Drivers Drunk Drivers Five hundred accidents that occurred on a Saturday night were analyzed. Two items noted were the number of vehicles involved and whether alcohol played a role in the accident. The numbers are shown below: number of Vehieles inovelved Did alohol play a role? 1 2 3 Totals Yes 75 125 50 250 No 50 225 75 350 Totals 125 350 125 600 NARREND -{Drunk Drivers Narrative} What proportion of accidents involved more than one vehicle?

(Short Answer)
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Suppose two events A and B are related. The ____________________ probability of A is the probability that A occurs, regardless of whether event B occurred or not.

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The probability of the intersection is called a joint probability.

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If A and B are independent events with P(A) = .40 and P(B) = .50, then P(A and B) = .20.

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If either event A or event B must occur, then A and B are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive events.

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Bayes' Law allows us to compute conditional probabilities from other forms of probability.

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NARRBEGIN: Business Majors Business Majors Suppose 30% of business majors major in accounting. You take a random sample of 3 business majors.NARREND -{Business Majors Narrative} What is the chance that exactly one majors in accounting?

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If events A and B are independent then:

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