Exam 6: Probability

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Two events A and B are said to be mutually exclusive if:

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No matter which approach was used to assign probability (classical,relative frequency,or subjective)the one that is always used to interpret a probability is the ____________________ approach.

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Equity Loan Rates A survey of banks estimated the following probabilities for the interest rate being charged on a equity loan based on a 30-year loan,based on past records. Interest Rate 0.0\% 6.5\% 7.0\% 7.5\% >7.5\% Probability 0.20 0.23 0.25 0.28 .04 -The probability of event A given event B is denoted by

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A and B are disjoint events,with P(A)= 0.20 and P(B)= 0.30.Then P(A and B)is:

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Of the last 500 customers entering a supermarket,50 have purchased a wireless phone.If the relative frequency approach for assigning probabilities is used,the probability that the next customer will purchase a wireless phone is

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Cars Suppose X = the number of cars owned by a family in the U.S.The probability distribution of X is shown in the table below. X 0 1 2 3 Probability 0.56 0.23 0.12 0.09 -The ____________________ of events A and B is the event that occurs when both A and B occur.

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If A and B are any two events with P(A)= .8 and P(B|Ac)= .7,then P(Ac and B)is

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The ____________________ rule says that P(Ac)= 1 - P(A).

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The second set of branches of a probability tree represent ____________________ probabilities.

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Two events A and B are said to be independent if P(A|B)= P(B|A).

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Suppose P(A)= 0.60,P(B)= 0.85,and A and B are independent.The probability of the complement of the event (A and B)is:

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Condo Sales and Interest Rates The probability that condo sales will increase in the next 6 months is estimated to be 0.30.The probability that the interest rates on condo loans will go up in the same period is estimated to be 0.75.The probability that condo sales or interest rates will go up during the next 6 months is estimated to be 0.90. -In general,a posterior probability is calculated by adding the prior and likelihood probabilities.

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Equity Loan Rates A survey of banks estimated the following probabilities for the interest rate being charged on a equity loan based on a 30-year loan,based on past records. Interest Rate 0.0\% 6.5\% 7.0\% 7.5\% >7.5\% Probability 0.20 0.23 0.25 0.28 .04 -Suppose the probability that a person owns both a cat and a dog is 0.10.Also suppose the probability that a person owns a cat but not a dog is 0.20.The marginal probability that someone owns a cat is 0.30.

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An approach of assigning probabilities which assumes that all outcomes of the experiment are equally likely is referred to as the:

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Messenger Service Three messenger services deliver to a small town in Oregon.Service A has 60% of all the scheduled deliveries,service B has 30%,and service C has the remaining 10%.Their on-time rates are 80%,60%,and 40% respectively.Define event O as a service delivers a package on time. -{Messenger Service Narrative} If a package was delivered on time,what is the probability that it was service C?

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If the event of interest is A,the probability that A will not occur is the complement of A.

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Equity Loan Rates A survey of banks estimated the following probabilities for the interest rate being charged on a equity loan based on a 30-year loan,based on past records. Interest Rate 0.0\% 6.5\% 7.0\% 7.5\% >7.5\% Probability 0.20 0.23 0.25 0.28 .04 -The intersection of two events A and B is the event that occurs when both A and B occur.

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Sports Fans Suppose that past history shows that 5% of college students are sports fans.A sample of 10 students is to be selected. -The relative frequency approach to probability uses long term relative frequencies,often based on past data.

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The collection of all the possible outcomes of a random experiment is called a sample space.

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Tea and Seltzer Suppose 55 percent of adults drink tea,45 percent drink seltzer,and 10 percent drink both. -{Tea and Seltzer Narrative} What is the probability that a randomly chosen adult does not drink seltzer?

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