Exam 6: Probability

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If A and B are ____________________ then the probability of the union of A and B is the sum of their individual probabilities.

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If A and B are any two events with P(A)= .8 and P(B|A)= .4,then P(A and B)is:

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If you roll a balanced die 50 times,you should expect an even number to appear:

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If two events are mutually exclusive,what is the probability that one or the other occurs?

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Messenger Service Three messenger services deliver to a small town in Oregon.Service A has 60% of all the scheduled deliveries,service B has 30%,and service C has the remaining 10%.Their on-time rates are 80%,60%,and 40% respectively.Define event O as a service delivers a package on time. -{Messenger Service Narrative} If a package was delivered on time,what is the probability that it was service B?

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Business Majors Suppose 30% of business majors major in accounting.You take a random sample of 3 business majors. -{Business Majors Narrative} What is the chance that none of them major in accounting?

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Julius and Gabe go to a show during their Spring break and toss a balanced coin to see who will pay for the tickets.The probability that Gabe will pay three days in a row is 0.125.

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Club Members A survey of a club's members indicates that 50% own a home,80% own a car,and 90% of the homeowners who subscribe also own a car. -{Club Members Narrative} What is the probability that a club member owns neither a car nor a house?

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If two events are complements,their probabilities sum to ____________________.

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Condo Sales and Interest Rates The probability that condo sales will increase in the next 6 months is estimated to be 0.30.The probability that the interest rates on condo loans will go up in the same period is estimated to be 0.75.The probability that condo sales or interest rates will go up during the next 6 months is estimated to be 0.90. -Bayes' Law is a formula for revising an initial subjective (prior)probability value on the basis of new results,thus obtaining a new (posterior)probability value.

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Bayes' Law involves three different types of probabilities: 1)prior probabilities;2)____________________ probabilities;and 3)posterior probabilities.

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Two events A and B are said to be mutually exclusive if P(A and B)= 1.0.

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Two events A and B are said to be independent if P(A|B)= P(B).

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Financial Consultants A Financial Consultant has classified his clients according to their gender and the composition of their investment portfolio (primarily bonds,primarily stocks,or a balanced mix of bonds and stocks).The proportions of clients falling into the various categories are shown in the following table: Portfolio Composition Gander Bonds Stocks Balanced Male 0.18 0.20 0.25 Female 0.12 0.10 0.15 One client is selected at random,and two events A and B are defined as follows: A: The client selected is male. B: The client selected has a balanced portfolio. -{Financial Consultants Narrative} Find P(A and B).

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Equity Loan Rates A survey of banks estimated the following probabilities for the interest rate being charged on a equity loan based on a 30-year loan,based on past records. Interest Rate 0.0\% 6.5\% 7.0\% 7.5\% >7.5\% Probability 0.20 0.23 0.25 0.28 .04 -The intersection of events A and B is the event that occurs when:

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Suppose P(A)= 0.30.The probability of the complement of A is:

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Drunk Drivers Six hundred accidents that occurred on a Saturday night were analyzed.Two items noted were the number of vehicles involved and whether alcohol played a role in the accident.The numbers are shown below: Number of Vehieles Involved Did aloholplay a role? 1 2 3 Totals Yes 75 125 50 250 Na 50 225 75 350 Totals 125 350 125 600 -{Drunk Drivers Narrative} What proportion of accidents involved more than one vehicle?

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Condo Sales and Interest Rates The probability that condo sales will increase in the next 6 months is estimated to be 0.30.The probability that the interest rates on condo loans will go up in the same period is estimated to be 0.75.The probability that condo sales or interest rates will go up during the next 6 months is estimated to be 0.90. -Conditional probabilities are also called likelihood probabilities.

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The collection of all possible outcomes of an experiment is called:

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If two events are mutually exclusive their joint probability is ____________________.

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