Exam 6: Probability

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Assume that A and B are independent events with P(A)= 0.30 and P(B)= 0.50.The probability that both events will occur simultaneously is 0.80.

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Condo Sales and Interest Rates The probability that condo sales will increase in the next 6 months is estimated to be 0.30.The probability that the interest rates on condo loans will go up in the same period is estimated to be 0.75.The probability that condo sales or interest rates will go up during the next 6 months is estimated to be 0.90. -Prior probabilities can be calculated using the multiplication rule for mutually exclusive events.

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If the two events are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive,what is the probability that one or the other occurs?

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The outcomes of a sample space must be ____________________,which means that no two outcomes can occur at the same time.

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Equity Loan Rates A survey of banks estimated the following probabilities for the interest rate being charged on a equity loan based on a 30-year loan,based on past records. Interest Rate 0.0\% 6.5\% 7.0\% 7.5\% >7.5\% Probability 0.20 0.23 0.25 0.28 .04 -Two events A and B are said to be independent if P(A|B)= P(B).

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Events A and B are either independent or mutually exclusive.

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If A and B are two independent events with P(A)= 0.9 and P(B|A)= 0.5,then P(A and B)= 0.45.

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If either event A or event B must occur,they are called mutually exclusive.

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Condo Sales and Interest Rates The probability that condo sales will increase in the next 6 months is estimated to be 0.30.The probability that the interest rates on condo loans will go up in the same period is estimated to be 0.75.The probability that condo sales or interest rates will go up during the next 6 months is estimated to be 0.90. -Although there is a formula defining Bayes' law,you can also use a probability tree to conduct calculations.

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Bayes' Law involves three different types of probabilities: 1)____________________ probabilities;2)likelihood probabilities;and 3)posterior probabilities.

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Which of the following is equivalent to P(A|B)?

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Hobby Shop Sales Sales records of a hobby shop showed the following number of radio controlled trucks sold weekly for each of the last 50 weeks. Number of Trucks Sald Number af Weeks 0 20 1 15 2 10 3 4 4 1 -{Hobby Shop Sales Narrative} What is the probability of selling at least two trucks in any given week?

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If event A and event B cannot occur at the same time,then A and B are said to be

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If P(A and B)= 1,then A and B must be mutually exclusive.

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{Marital Status Narrative} Find the probability that the customer selected is female or divorced.

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Messenger Service Three messenger services deliver to a small town in Oregon.Service A has 60% of all the scheduled deliveries,service B has 30%,and service C has the remaining 10%.Their on-time rates are 80%,60%,and 40% respectively.Define event O as a service delivers a package on time. -{Messenger Service Narrative} Calculate P(B and O).

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If P(A)= 0.84,P(B)= 0.76,and P(A or B)= 0.90,then P(A and B)is:

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Condo Sales and Interest Rates The probability that condo sales will increase in the next 6 months is estimated to be 0.30.The probability that the interest rates on condo loans will go up in the same period is estimated to be 0.75.The probability that condo sales or interest rates will go up during the next 6 months is estimated to be 0.90. -We can use the joint and marginal probabilities to compute conditional probabilities,for which a formula is available.

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Equity Loan Rates A survey of banks estimated the following probabilities for the interest rate being charged on a equity loan based on a 30-year loan,based on past records. Interest Rate 0.0\% 6.5\% 7.0\% 7.5\% >7.5\% Probability 0.20 0.23 0.25 0.28 .04 -If A and B are independent events with P(A)= 0.35 and P(B)= 0.55,then P(A|B)is 0.35/0.55 = .64.

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Condo Sales and Interest Rates The probability that condo sales will increase in the next 6 months is estimated to be 0.30.The probability that the interest rates on condo loans will go up in the same period is estimated to be 0.75.The probability that condo sales or interest rates will go up during the next 6 months is estimated to be 0.90. -In applying Bayes' Law,as the prior probabilities increase,the posterior probabilities decrease.

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