Exam 6: Probability

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College Professorship ​ A Ph.D.graduate has applied for a job with two colleges: A and B.The graduate feels that she has a 60% chance of receiving an offer from college A and a 50% chance of receiving an offer from college B.If she receives an offer from college B,she believes that she has an 80% chance of receiving an offer from college A.Let A = receiving an offer from college A,and let B = receiving an offer from college B. ​ ​ -{College Professorship Narrative} What is the probability that at least one college will make her an offer?

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If P(A)= 0.84,P(B)= 0.76,and P(A or B)= 0.90,then P(A and B)is:

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Julius and Gabe go to a show during their Spring break and toss a balanced coin to see who will pay for the tickets.The probability that Gabe will pay three days in a row is 0.125.

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The collection of all the possible outcomes of a random experiment is called a sample space.

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If P(A)= 0.20,P(B)= 0.30,and P(A and B)= 0,then A and B are:

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Suppose A and B are two independent events for which P(A)= 0.20 and P(B)= 0.60. a.Find P(A|B). b.Find P(B|A).

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Drunk Drivers Six hundred accidents that occurred on a Saturday night were analyzed.Two items noted were the number of vehicles involved and whether alcohol played a role in the accident.The numbers are shown below: Drunk Drivers  Six hundred accidents that occurred on a Saturday night were analyzed.Two items noted were the number of vehicles involved and whether alcohol played a role in the accident.The numbers are shown below:   ​ ​ -{Drunk Drivers Narrative} If alcohol was not involved,what proportion of the accidents were single vehicle? ​ ​ -{Drunk Drivers Narrative} If alcohol was not involved,what proportion of the accidents were single vehicle?

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The ____________________ rule is used to calculate the probability of the union of two events.

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Construction Bids ​ A construction company has submitted bids on two separate state contracts,A and B.The company feels that it has a 60% chance of winning contract A,and a 50% chance of winning contract B.Furthermore,the company believes that it has an 80% chance of winning contract A if it wins contract B. ​ ​ -{Construction Bids Narrative} What is the probability that the company will win at least one of the two contracts?

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Initial estimates of the probabilities of events are known as:

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Messenger Service ​ Three messenger services deliver to a small town in Oregon.Service A has 60% of all the scheduled deliveries,service B has 30%,and service C has the remaining 10%.Their on-time rates are 80%,60%,and 40% respectively.Define event O as a service delivers a package on time. ​ ​ -{Messenger Service Narrative} If a package was delivered 40 minutes late,what is the probability that it was service C?

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The second set of branches of a probability tree represent ____________________ probabilities.

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Cysts ​ After researching cysts of a particular type,a doctor learns that out of 10,000 such cysts examined,1,500 are malignant and 8,500 are benign.A diagnostic test is available which is accurate 80% of the time (whether the cyst is malignant or not).The doctor has discovered the same type of cyst in a patient. ​ ​ -{Cysts Narrative} What is the probability that the patient will test positive?

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Suppose P(A)= 0.30.The probability of the complement of A is:

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Messenger Service ​ Three messenger services deliver to a small town in Oregon.Service A has 60% of all the scheduled deliveries,service B has 30%,and service C has the remaining 10%.Their on-time rates are 80%,60%,and 40% respectively.Define event O as a service delivers a package on time. ​ ​ -{Messenger Service Narrative} Calculate the probability that a package was delivered on time.

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Posterior probabilities can be calculated using the addition rule for mutually exclusive events.

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If A and B are mutually exclusive events with P(A)= 0.30 and P(B)= 0.40,then P(A or B)is:

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Business Majors Suppose 30% of business majors major in accounting.You take a random sample of 3 business majors. ​ ​ -{Business Majors Narrative} What is the chance that they all major in accounting?

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When you multiply a first level branch with a second level branch on a probability tree you get a(n)____________________ probability.

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Predicting the outcome of a football game is using the subjective approach to probability.

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