Exam 6: Probability

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Bayes' Law involves three different types of probabilities: 1)prior probabilities; 2)likelihood probabilities; and 3)____________________ probabilities.

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Certification Test ​ A standard certification test was given at three locations.1,000 candidates took the test at location A,600 candidates at location B,and 400 candidates at location C.The percentages of candidates from locations A,B,and C who passed the test were 70%,68%,and 77%,respectively.One candidate is selected at random from among those who took the test. ​ ​ -{Certification Test Narrative} If the selected candidate passed the test,what is the probability that the candidate took the test at location B?

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In applying Bayes' Law,as the prior probabilities increase,the posterior probabilities decrease.

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If P(A|B)= P(A)then events A and B are ____________________.

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The collection of all possible events is called

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The outcomes of a sample space must be ____________________,which means that no two outcomes can occur at the same time.

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Messenger Service ​ Three messenger services deliver to a small town in Oregon.Service A has 60% of all the scheduled deliveries,service B has 30%,and service C has the remaining 10%.Their on-time rates are 80%,60%,and 40% respectively.Define event O as a service delivers a package on time. ​ ​ -{Messenger Service Narrative} If a package was delivered 40 minutes late,what is the probability that it was service B?

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If P(A)= 0.65,P(B)= 0.58,and P(A and B)= 0.76,then P(A or B)is:

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Prior probabilities can be calculated using the multiplication rule for mutually exclusive events.

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If two events are mutually exclusive their joint probability is ____________________.

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Which of the following statements is always correct?

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A pharmaceutical firm has discovered a new diagnostic test for a certain disease that has infected 1% of the population.The firm has announced that 95% of those infected will show a positive test result,while 98% of those not infected will show a negative test result. a.What proportion of people don't have the disease? b.What proportion who have the disease test negative? c.What proportion of those who don't have the disease test positive? d.What proportion of test results are incorrect? e.What proportion of test results are correct?

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If events A and B are independent then:

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If A and B are independent events with P(A)= 0.60 and P(B)= 0.70,then P(A or B)equals:

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The union of events A and B is the event that occurs when either A or B or both occur.It is denoted as 'A or B'.

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If two events are complements,their probabilities sum to ____________________.

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Which of the following is equivalent to P(A)if A and B are independent?

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Financial Consultants A Financial Consultant has classified his clients according to their gender and the composition of their investment portfolio (primarily bonds,primarily stocks,or a balanced mix of bonds and stocks).The proportions of clients falling into the various categories are shown in the following table:  Financial Consultants A Financial Consultant has classified his clients according to their gender and the composition of their investment portfolio (primarily bonds,primarily stocks,or a balanced mix of bonds and stocks).The proportions of clients falling into the various categories are shown in the following table:   One client is selected at random,and two events A and B are defined as follows: A: The client selected is male. B: The client selected has a balanced portfolio. ​ ​ -{Financial Consultants Narrative} Express each of the following events in words: a.A or B b.A and B One client is selected at random,and two events A and B are defined as follows: A: The client selected is male. B: The client selected has a balanced portfolio. ​ ​ -{Financial Consultants Narrative} Express each of the following events in words: a.A or B b.A and B

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GPA and Class A college professor classifies his students according to their grade point average (GPA)and their class rank.GPA is on a 0.0-4.0 scale,and class rank is defined as the under class (freshmen and sophomores)and the upper class (juniors and seniors).One student is selected at random.  GPA and Class  A college professor classifies his students according to their grade point average (GPA)and their class rank.GPA is on a 0.0-4.0 scale,and class rank is defined as the under class (freshmen and sophomores)and the upper class (juniors and seniors).One student is selected at random.   ​ ​ -{GPA and Class Narrative} What is the probability that the student is in the upper class and has GPA under 2.0? ​ ​ -{GPA and Class Narrative} What is the probability that the student is in the upper class and has GPA under 2.0?

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Financial Consultants A Financial Consultant has classified his clients according to their gender and the composition of their investment portfolio (primarily bonds,primarily stocks,or a balanced mix of bonds and stocks).The proportions of clients falling into the various categories are shown in the following table:  Financial Consultants A Financial Consultant has classified his clients according to their gender and the composition of their investment portfolio (primarily bonds,primarily stocks,or a balanced mix of bonds and stocks).The proportions of clients falling into the various categories are shown in the following table:   One client is selected at random,and two events A and B are defined as follows: A: The client selected is male. B: The client selected has a balanced portfolio. ​ ​ -{Financial Consultants Narrative} Find the following probabilities: a.P(A) b.P(B) One client is selected at random,and two events A and B are defined as follows: A: The client selected is male. B: The client selected has a balanced portfolio. ​ ​ -{Financial Consultants Narrative} Find the following probabilities: a.P(A) b.P(B)

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