Exam 3: Forecasting

As a consultant you have been asked to generate a unit demand forecast for a product for year 2014 using exponential smoothing.The actual demand in year 2013 was 750.The forecast demand in year 2013 was 960.Using this data and a smoothing constant alpha of 0.3,which of the following is the resulting year 2014 forecast value?

In general,which forecasting time frame best identifies seasonal effects?

In decomposition of time series data it is relatively easy identify cycles and autocorrelation components.

In business forecasting,what is usually considered a short-term time period?

Heavy sales of umbrellas during a rain storm is an example of which of the following?

A company wants to forecast demand using the simple moving average.If the company uses four prior yearly sales values ,which of the following is the simple moving average forecast for year 2014?

In the weighted moving average forecasting model the weights must add up to one times the number of data points.

Market research is a quantitative method of forecasting.

The equation for exponential smoothing states that the new forecast is equal to the old forecast plus the error of the old forecast.

What are the five steps of CPFR (collaborative planning,forecasting and replenishment?) 1.______________________________ 2.______________________________ 3.______________________________ 4.______________________________ 5.______________________________

Trend lines are usually the last things considered when developing a forecast.

As a consultant you have been asked to generate a unit demand forecast for a product for Year 2014 using exponential smoothing.Actual demand in year 2013 was 950 but the forecast for that year 1,060.Using this data and a smoothing constant alpha of 0.5,which of the following is the resulting year 2014 forecast value? ________________________________________

If the intercept value of a linear regression model is 40,the slope value is 40,and the value of X is 40,which of the following is the resulting forecast value using this model?

A company wants to forecast demand using the simple moving average.If the company uses three prior yearly sales values ,what is the simple moving average forecast for year 2014? __________________________________

Multiple regression analysis uses several regression models to generate a forecast.

Time series forecasting models make predictions about the future based on analysis of past data.

In general,which forecasting time frame compensates most effectively for random variation and short term changes?

Which of the following is the portion of observations you would expect to see lying within a plus or minus 3 MAD range?

The standard error of the estimate of a linear regression is not useful for judging the fit between the data and the regression line when doing forecasts.

RSFE in forecasting stands for "reliable safety function error."