Question 1

A central premise of exponential smoothing is that more recent data is less indicative of the future than data from the distant past.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 2

Which of the following forecasting methodologies is considered a causal forecasting technique?

Accepted Answer

A)  Exponential smoothing 
B)  Weighted moving average 
C)  Linear regression 
D)  Historical analogy 
E)  Market research 
A)  Exponential smoothing 
B)  Weighted moving average 
C)  Linear regression 
D)  Historical analogy 
E)  Market research

Question 3

A company wants to forecast demand using the weighted moving average.If the company uses two prior yearly sales values ,and we want to weight year 2012 at 35% and year 2013 at 65%,what is the weighted moving average forecast for Year 2014? __________________________________________

Accepted Answer

12,300
Explanation:

Question 4

In causal relationship forecasting leading indicators are used to forecast occurrences.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 5

Random errors can be defined as those that cannot be explained by the forecast model being used.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 6

Which of the following forecasting methodologies is considered a time series forecasting technique?

Accepted Answer

A)  Simple moving average 
B)  Market research 
C)  Leading indicators 
D)  Historical analogy 
E)  Simulation 
A)  Simple moving average 
B)  Market research 
C)  Leading indicators 
D)  Historical analogy 
E)  Simulation

Question 7

In most cases,demand for products or services can be broken into several components.Which of the following is considered a component of demand?

Accepted Answer

A)  Forecast error 
B)  Autocorrelation 
C)  Previous demand 
D)  Consistent demand 
E)  Repeat demand 
A)  Forecast error 
B)  Autocorrelation 
C)  Previous demand 
D)  Consistent demand 
E)  Repeat demand

Question 8

You are hired as a consultant to advise a small firm on forecasting methodology.Based on your research you find the company has a MAD of 3.Its wants to have a 99.7 percent control limits on its forecasting system.It's most recent tracking signal value is 15.What should be your report to the company?

Accepted Answer

A)  The forecasting model is operating acceptably 
B)  The forecasting model is out of control and needs to be corrected 
C)  The MAD value is incorrect 
D)  The upper control value is less than 20 
E)  The company is using an inappropriate forecasting methodology 
A)  The forecasting model is operating acceptably 
B)  The forecasting model is out of control and needs to be corrected 
C)  The MAD value is incorrect 
D)  The upper control value is less than 20 
E)  The company is using an inappropriate forecasting methodology

Question 9

The value of the smoothing constant alpha in an exponential smoothing model is between 0 and 1.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 10

Simple exponential smoothing lags changes in demand.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 11

Which of the following are used to describe the degree of error?

Accepted Answer

A)  Weighted moving average 
B)  Regression 
C)  Moving average 
D)  Forecast as a percent of actual 
E)  Mean absolute deviation 
A)  Weighted moving average 
B)  Regression 
C)  Moving average 
D)  Forecast as a percent of actual 
E)  Mean absolute deviation

Question 12

If you were selecting from a variety of forecasting models based on MAD,which of the following MAD values from the same data would reflect the most accurate model?

Accepted Answer

A)  0.2 
B)  0.8 
C)  1.0 
D)  10.0 
E)  100.0 
A)  0.2 
B)  0.8 
C)  1.0 
D)  10.0 
E)  100.0

Question 13

A good forecaster is one who develops special skills and experience at one forecasting technique and is capable of applying it to widely diverse situations.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 14

In business forecasting,what is usually considered a long-term time period?

Accepted Answer

A)  Three months or longer 
B)  Six months or longer 
C)  One year or longer 
D)  Two years or longer 
E)  Ten years or longer 
A)  Three months or longer 
B)  Six months or longer 
C)  One year or longer 
D)  Two years or longer 
E)  Ten years or longer

Question 15

In business forecasting,what is usually considered a medium-term time period?

Accepted Answer

A)  Six weeks to one year 
B)  Three months to two years 
C)  One to five years 
D)  One to six months 
E)  Six months to six years 
A)  Six weeks to one year 
B)  Three months to two years 
C)  One to five years 
D)  One to six months 
E)  Six months to six years

Question 16

Exponential smoothing is always the best and most accurate of all forecasting models.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 17

A restriction in using linear regression is that it assumes that past data and future projections fall on or near a straight line.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 18

A company has actual unit demand for four consecutive years of 100,105,135,and 150.The respective forecasts were 120 for all four years.Which of the following is the resulting MAD value that can be computed from this data?

Accepted Answer

A)  2.5 
B)  10 
C)  20 
D)  22.5 
E)  30 
A)  2.5 
B)  10 
C)  20 
D)  22.5 
E)  30

Question 19

A time series is defined in the text as chronologically ordered data that may contain one or more components of demand variation: trend,seasonal,cyclical,autocorrelation,and random.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 20

A company hires you to develop a linear regression forecasting model.Based on the company's historical sales information,you determine the intercept value of the model to be 1,200.You also find the slope value is minus 50.If after developing the model you are given a value of X = 10,which of the following is the resulting forecast value using this model?

Accepted Answer

A)  - 1,800 
B)  700 
C)  1,230 
D)  1,150 
E)  12,000 
A)  - 1,800 
B)  700 
C)  1,230 
D)  1,150 
E)  12,000

A central premise of exponential smoothing is that more recent data is less indicative of the future than data from the distant past.

Which of the following forecasting methodologies is considered a causal forecasting technique?

A company wants to forecast demand using the weighted moving average.If the company uses two prior yearly sales values ,and we want to weight year 2012 at 35% and year 2013 at 65%,what is the weighted moving average forecast for Year 2014? __________________________________________

In causal relationship forecasting leading indicators are used to forecast occurrences.

Random errors can be defined as those that cannot be explained by the forecast model being used.

Which of the following forecasting methodologies is considered a time series forecasting technique?

In most cases,demand for products or services can be broken into several components.Which of the following is considered a component of demand?

You are hired as a consultant to advise a small firm on forecasting methodology.Based on your research you find the company has a MAD of 3.Its wants to have a 99.7 percent control limits on its forecasting system.It's most recent tracking signal value is 15.What should be your report to the company?

The value of the smoothing constant alpha in an exponential smoothing model is between 0 and 1.

Simple exponential smoothing lags changes in demand.

Which of the following are used to describe the degree of error?

If you were selecting from a variety of forecasting models based on MAD,which of the following MAD values from the same data would reflect the most accurate model?

A good forecaster is one who develops special skills and experience at one forecasting technique and is capable of applying it to widely diverse situations.

In business forecasting,what is usually considered a long-term time period?

In business forecasting,what is usually considered a medium-term time period?

Exponential smoothing is always the best and most accurate of all forecasting models.

A restriction in using linear regression is that it assumes that past data and future projections fall on or near a straight line.

A company has actual unit demand for four consecutive years of 100,105,135,and 150.The respective forecasts were 120 for all four years.Which of the following is the resulting MAD value that can be computed from this data?

A time series is defined in the text as chronologically ordered data that may contain one or more components of demand variation: trend,seasonal,cyclical,autocorrelation,and random.

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Exam 3: Forecasting

A central premise of exponential smoothing is that more recent data is less indicative of the future than data from the distant past.

Which of the following forecasting methodologies is considered a causal forecasting technique?

A company wants to forecast demand using the weighted moving average.If the company uses two prior yearly sales values ,and we want to weight year 2012 at 35% and year 2013 at 65%,what is the weighted moving average forecast for Year 2014? __________________________________________

In causal relationship forecasting leading indicators are used to forecast occurrences.

Random errors can be defined as those that cannot be explained by the forecast model being used.

Which of the following forecasting methodologies is considered a time series forecasting technique?

In most cases,demand for products or services can be broken into several components.Which of the following is considered a component of demand?

The value of the smoothing constant alpha in an exponential smoothing model is between 0 and 1.

Simple exponential smoothing lags changes in demand.

Which of the following are used to describe the degree of error?

If you were selecting from a variety of forecasting models based on MAD,which of the following MAD values from the same data would reflect the most accurate model?

A good forecaster is one who develops special skills and experience at one forecasting technique and is capable of applying it to widely diverse situations.

In business forecasting,what is usually considered a long-term time period?

In business forecasting,what is usually considered a medium-term time period?

Exponential smoothing is always the best and most accurate of all forecasting models.

A restriction in using linear regression is that it assumes that past data and future projections fall on or near a straight line.

A company has actual unit demand for four consecutive years of 100,105,135,and 150.The respective forecasts were 120 for all four years.Which of the following is the resulting MAD value that can be computed from this data?

A time series is defined in the text as chronologically ordered data that may contain one or more components of demand variation: trend,seasonal,cyclical,autocorrelation,and random.

Operations and Supply Chain Management

Strategy and Sustainability

Strategic Capacity Management

Projects

Manufacturing and Service Processes

Service Processes

Sales and Operations Planning

Material Requirements Planning

Quality Management and Six Sigma

Inventory Management

Lean Supply Chains

Global Sourcing and Procurement

Location, Logistics, and Distribution

Filters