Exam 9: Forecasting

A well-educated lumberjack decides to use linear regression to predict the demand for firewood based on the ambient temperature.He has collected data on firewood sales and temperature for the last several days and has performed some preliminary calculations as shown in the table.What is his regression equation based on the data?

(Multiple Choice)

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Question 41

Heidi favors using a two period moving average but Tim is "an exponential-smoothing man." Tim's demand forecast for May was identical to Heidi's.What value of alpha would Tim need to use in order for his June forecast to be identical to Heidi's if each sticks with their preferred technique?

(Multiple Choice)

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Question 42

A long-term movement up or down in a time series is called:

(Multiple Choice)

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Question 43

Models that predict demand based upon some independent factor(s)other than time are ________ forecasting models.

(Short Answer)

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Question 44

Forecasts are almost always wrong.

(True/False)

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Question 45

The Delphi method,panel consensus forecasting,and market surveys are all qualitative forecasting methods,but only market surveys do NOT use experts.

(True/False)

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Question 46

A poultry farmer that dabbles in statistics is interested in exploring the relationship between two types of feed,layer pellets and scratch,water,and the output of his laying hens.For ten days he records the number of ounces of layer pellets and scratch the hens consume and the number of fluid ounces of water and tracks the number of eggs that are produced.After running a multiple regression model,he obtains the following report.What is the best interpretation of these statistics?

(Multiple Choice)

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Question 47

Qualitative forecasts are used when there is plenty of relevant data.

(True/False)

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Question 48

A forecaster is assessing two different models for demand.The output from each model and the actual demand data appear in the table.Use MAD and a tracking signal to compare the two models.Which model does a better job of forecasting?

(Essay)

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Question 49

A firm's demand data from the last two quarter is displayed in the table.Use a three period moving average to forecast demand for July.

(Multiple Choice)

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Question 50

The forecast data matches the actual data perfectly if the mean absolute deviation is 0.0.

(True/False)

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Question 51

The greater the randomness in the data,the ________ the value of the alpha should be in an exponential smoothing forecast.

(Short Answer)

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Question 52

What distinguishes collaborative planning,forecasting,and replenishment (CPFR)systems from traditional planning approaches is the emphasis on forecasting.

(True/False)

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Question 53

A counseling service records the number of calls to their hotline for the last year.Plot the data and determine which forecasting technique would be best among a moving average,weighted moving average,exponential smoothing,and trend line.

(Essay)

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Question 54

________ is unpredictable movement from one time period to the next.

(Short Answer)

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Question 55

A model with a positive mean forecast error suggests that,on average,the model underforecasts.

(True/False)

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Question 56

Using the data shown in the table,develop a regression line that can be used to predict the demand for time period number 20.What is the prediction equation and what is your forecast for period 20?

(Essay)

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Question 57

A poultry farmer that dabbles in statistics is interested in exploring the relationship between two types of feed,layer pellets and scratch,water,and the output of his laying hens.For ten days he records the number of ounces of layer pellets and scratch the hens consume and the number of fluid ounces of water and tracks the number of eggs that are produced.After running a multiple regression model,he obtains the following report.What is the best interpretation of these statistics? Regression Statistics

(Multiple Choice)

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Question 58

Demand was low two years ago but increased sharply last year thanks to an aggressive marketing campaign.A time series model that puts the greatest emphasis on the most recent period is probably the best choice to predict next year's demand.

(True/False)

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Question 59

Which one of the following statements regarding collaborative planning,forecasting,and replenishment (CPFR)systems is best?

(Multiple Choice)

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Question 60

Showing 41 - 60 of 69

Heidi favors using a two period moving average but Tim is "an exponential-smoothing man." Tim's demand forecast for May was identical to Heidi's.What value of alpha would Tim need to use in order for his June forecast to be identical to Heidi's if each sticks with their preferred technique?

A long-term movement up or down in a time series is called:

Models that predict demand based upon some independent factor(s)other than time are ________ forecasting models.

Forecasts are almost always wrong.

The Delphi method,panel consensus forecasting,and market surveys are all qualitative forecasting methods,but only market surveys do NOT use experts.

Qualitative forecasts are used when there is plenty of relevant data.

A forecaster is assessing two different models for demand.The output from each model and the actual demand data appear in the table.Use MAD and a tracking signal to compare the two models.Which model does a better job of forecasting?

A firm's demand data from the last two quarter is displayed in the table.Use a three period moving average to forecast demand for July.

The forecast data matches the actual data perfectly if the mean absolute deviation is 0.0.

The greater the randomness in the data,the ________ the value of the alpha should be in an exponential smoothing forecast.

What distinguishes collaborative planning,forecasting,and replenishment (CPFR)systems from traditional planning approaches is the emphasis on forecasting.

A counseling service records the number of calls to their hotline for the last year.Plot the data and determine which forecasting technique would be best among a moving average,weighted moving average,exponential smoothing,and trend line.

________ is unpredictable movement from one time period to the next.

A model with a positive mean forecast error suggests that,on average,the model underforecasts.

Using the data shown in the table,develop a regression line that can be used to predict the demand for time period number 20.What is the prediction equation and what is your forecast for period 20?

Demand was low two years ago but increased sharply last year thanks to an aggressive marketing campaign.A time series model that puts the greatest emphasis on the most recent period is probably the best choice to predict next year's demand.

Which one of the following statements regarding collaborative planning,forecasting,and replenishment (CPFR)systems is best?

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