Exam 9: Forecasting

Which of these quantitative techniques is a causal model?

Over the long run,fluctuations in demand due to seasonality are greater than those due to randomness.

In order to indicate ________ in a forecast model,you should use the mean forecast error approach rather than the mean absolute deviation approach.

A counseling service records the number of calls to their hotline for the last year.What is the forecast for August if a regression equation is used to model this data?

Consider the data that generate this plot covering time months 1 to 50.What characteristic is most prominent in the pattern?

What is a collaborative planning,forecasting,and replenishment system and how might it benefit those who choose to use it?

The greater the randomness in the model,the greater the number of periods should be used in a moving average forecast.

Nora Damus reviews her forecasting triumphs and failures as part of her annual report to the Chief Operating Officer.She notes that her monthly forecast for batteries has a mean forecast error of 20,and a mean absolute deviation of 20.Which of the following statements about her forecast is BEST?

The independent variable is the quantity the forecaster is interested in estimating with a linear regression model.

A company keeps track of unit sales and notes a strong trend during the past eight periods.They use an adjusted exponential smoothing model with an alpha equal to 0.7 and a beta equal to 0.6.Using the demand data and previous forecasts shown in the table,develop a forecast for period 4.

The panel consensus forecasting approach requires that the forecasting team discuss their forecast as a team but the ________ requires that each member of the team develop a separate forecast initially.

Multiple regression is used when the forecaster believes that more than one independent variable should be used to predict the variable of interest.

Describe the mechanics of three qualitative forecasting techniques and compare their strengths and weaknesses.

A poultry farmer that dabbles in statistics is interested in exploring the relationship between layer pellets and the output of his laying hens.For ten days he records the number of ounces of layer pellets and the number of eggs that are produced.What is his regression equation based on the data?

Using the data in the table,first plot the data and comment on the appearance of the demand pattern.Then develop a forecast for periods 51-70 that fits the data.

Exponential smoothing with an alpha of one will yield identical results to a last period forecast.

A counseling service records the number of calls to their hotline for the last year.What is the forecast for October if a weighted moving average with weights of 0.5,0.3,and 0.2 is used to model this data?

A poultry farmer that dabbles in statistics is interested in exploring the relationship between two types of feed,layer pellets and scratch,water,and the output of his laying hens.For ten days he records the number of ounces of layer pellets and scratch the hens consume and the number of fluid ounces of water and tracks the number of eggs that are produced.What is his regression equation based on the data? He develops one equation based on three predictors,the scratch,pellets,and water,and another equation based only on the layer pellet consumption.The output for the two models are shown side by side.Comment on the two models and which one should be used.

Two smoothing models that yield identical forecasts are exponential smoothing with an alpha equal to ________ and a moving average with n equal to ________.

When there is a significant upward or downward trend in the data,the two best forecasting models are adjusted exponential smoothing and linear regression.