Exam 3: Forecasting

Heavy sales of umbrellas during a rain storm is an example of which of the following?

Which of the following forecasting methodologies is considered a time series forecasting technique?

Which of the following is not one of the basic forecasting types discussed in the text?

Given a prior forecast demand value of 1,100,a related actual demand value of 1,000,and a smoothing constant alpha of 0.3,what is the exponential smoothing forecast value?

If you were selecting from a variety of forecasting models based on MAD,which of the following MAD values from the same data would reflect the most accurate model?

In most cases,demand for products or services can be broken into several components.Which of the following is considered a component of demand?

In the weighted moving average forecasting model the weights must add up to one times the number of data points.

In a forecasting model using simple moving average the shorter the time span used for calculating the moving average,the closer the average follows volatile trends.

We usually associate the word "seasonal" with recurrent periods of repetitive activity that happen on other than an annual cycle.

As a consultant you have been asked to generate a unit demand forecast for a product for year 2017 using exponential smoothing.The actual demand in year 2013 was 750.The forecast demand in year 2016 was 960.Using this data and a smoothing constant alpha of 0.3,which of the following is the resulting year 2017 forecast value?

Linear regression is not useful for aggregate planning.

Which two of the following are among the major reasons that exponential smoothing has become well accepted as a forecasting technique?

Which of the following are used to describe the degree of error?

There are no differences in strategic and tactical forecasting.forecast is a mathematical projection and its ultimate purpose should make no difference to the analyst.

Cyclical influences on demand may come from occurrences such as political elections,war,or economic conditions.

company hires you to develop a linear regression forecasting model.Based on the company's historical sales information,you determine the intercept value of the model to be 1,200.You also find the slope value is minus 50.If after developing the model you are given a value of X = 10,which of the following is the resulting forecast Value using this model?

company wants to forecast demand using the simple moving average.If the company uses four prior yearly sales values ,which of the following is the simple moving average forecast for year 2017?

You are using an exponential smoothing model for forecasting.The running sum of the forecast error statistics (RSFE)are calculated each time a forecast is generated.You find the last RSFE to be 34.Originally the forecasting model used was selected because it's relatively low MAD of 0.4.To determine when it is time to reevaluate the usefulness of the exponential smoothing model you compute tracking signals.Which of the following is the resulting tracking signal?

You are hired as a consultant to advise a small firm on forecasting methodology.Based on your research you find the company has a MAD of 3.Its wants to have a 99.7 percent control limits on its forecasting system.Its most recent tracking signal value is 15.What should be your report to the company?

Trend lines are usually the last things considered when developing a forecast.