Exam 3: Forecasting

Given a prior forecast demand value of 230,a related actual demand value of 250,and a smoothing constant alpha of 0.1,what is the exponential smoothing forecast value for the following period?

In causal relationship forecasting leading indicators are used to forecast occurrences.

Multiple regression analysis uses several regression models to generate a forecast.

Which of the following is a possible source of bias error in forecasting?

company has actual unit demand for three consecutive years of 124,126,and 135.The respective forecasts for the same three years are 120,120,and 130.Which of the following is the resulting MAD value that can be computed from this data?

Cyclical influences on demand are often expressed graphically as a linear function that is either upward or downward sloping.

Random errors in forecasting occur when an undetected secular trend is not included in a forecasting model.

company wants to forecast demand using the weighted moving average.If the company uses two prior yearly sales values ,and we want to weight year 2015 at 10% and year 2016 at 90%,which of the following is the weighted moving average forecast for year 2017?

time series is defined in the text as chronologically ordered data that may contain one or more components of demand variation: trend,seasonal,cyclical,autocorrelation,and random.

Market research is a quantitative method of forecasting.

In most cases,demand for products or services can be broken into several components.Which of the following is considered a component of demand?

central premise of exponential smoothing is that more recent data is less indicative of the future than data from the distant past.

In business forecasting,what is usually considered a long-term time period?

In general,which forecasting time frame is best to detect general trends?

Which of the following forecasting methodologies is considered a qualitative forecasting technique?

The standard error of the estimate of a linear regression is not useful for judging the fit between the data and the regression line when doing forecasts.

Qualitative forecasting techniques generally take advantage of the knowledge of experts and therefore do not require much judgment.

If a firm produced a product that was experiencing growth in demand,the smoothing constant alpha (reaction rate to differences)used in an exponential smoothing forecasting model would tend to be which of the following?

In exponential smoothing,it is desirable to use a higher smoothing constant when forecasting demand for a product experiencing high growth.

Which of the following considerations is not a factor in deciding which forecasting model a firm should choose?