Question 1

Forecasting techniques that are based on time-series data assume that future values of the series will duplicate past values.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 2

Which of the following mechanisms for enhancing profitability is most likely to result from improving short-term forecast performance?

Accepted Answer

A) increased inventory 
B) reduced flexibility 
C) higher-quality products 
D) greater customer satisfaction 
E) greater seasonality 
A) increased inventory 
B) reduced flexibility 
C) higher-quality products 
D) greater customer satisfaction 
E) greater seasonality

Question 3

Bias is measured by the ratio of the cumulative sum of forecast errors to the mean absolute deviation (MAD).

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 4

The more novel a new product or service design is, the more forecasters have to rely on

Accepted Answer

A) subjective estimates. 
B) seasonality. 
C) cyclicality. 
D) historical data. 
E) smoothed variation. 
A) subjective estimates. 
B) seasonality. 
C) cyclicality. 
D) historical data. 
E) smoothed variation.

Question 5

Accuracy in forecasting can be measured by:

Accepted Answer

A) MSE. 
B) MRP. 
C) MPS. 
D) MTM. 
E) MTE. 
A) MSE. 
B) MRP. 
C) MPS. 
D) MTM. 
E) MTE.

Question 6

The use of a control chart assumes that random errors are normally distributed about a mean of zero.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 7

Given the following historical data and weights of 0.5, 0.3, and 0.2, what is the three-period moving average forecast for period 5?

Accepted Answer

A) 144.20 
B) 144.80 
C) 144.67 
D) 143.00 
E) 144.00 
A) 144.20 
B) 144.80 
C) 144.67 
D) 143.00 
E) 144.00

Question 8

The naive forecast is limited in its application to series that reflect no trend or seasonality.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 9

Moving average forecasting techniques do the following:

Accepted Answer

A) Immediately reflect changing patterns in the data. 
B) Lead changes in the data. 
C) Smooth variations in the data. 
D) Operate independently of recent data. 
E) Assist when organizations are relocating. 
A) Immediately reflect changing patterns in the data. 
B) Lead changes in the data. 
C) Smooth variations in the data. 
D) Operate independently of recent data. 
E) Assist when organizations are relocating.

Question 10

A forecast based on the previous forecast plus a percentage of the forecast error is:

Accepted Answer

A) a naive forecast. 
B) a simple moving average forecast. 
C) a centered moving average forecast. 
D) an exponentially smoothed forecast. 
E) an associative forecast. 
A) a naive forecast. 
B) a simple moving average forecast. 
C) a centered moving average forecast. 
D) an exponentially smoothed forecast. 
E) an associative forecast.

Question 11

A control chart involves setting action limits for cumulative forecast error.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 12

The primary difference between seasonality and cycles is:

Accepted Answer

A) the duration of the repeating patterns. 
B) the magnitude of the variation. 
C) the ability to attribute the pattern to a cause. 
D) the direction of the movement. 
E) there are only four seasons but 30 cycles. 
A) the duration of the repeating patterns. 
B) the magnitude of the variation. 
C) the ability to attribute the pattern to a cause. 
D) the direction of the movement. 
E) there are only four seasons but 30 cycles.

Question 13

A concert promoter is forecasting this year's attendance for one of his concerts based on the following historical data:
 
What is this year's forecast using the naive approach?

Accepted Answer

A) 22,000 
B) 20,000 
C) 18,000 
D) 15,000 
E) 12,000 
A) 22,000 
B) 20,000 
C) 18,000 
D) 15,000 
E) 12,000

Question 14

The mean absolute deviation is used to:

Accepted Answer

A) estimate the trend line. 
B) eliminate forecast errors. 
C) measure forecast accuracy. 
D) seasonally adjust the forecast. 
E) compute periodic forecast errors. 
A) estimate the trend line. 
B) eliminate forecast errors. 
C) measure forecast accuracy. 
D) seasonally adjust the forecast. 
E) compute periodic forecast errors.

Question 15

Given an actual demand of 59, a previous forecast of 64, and an alpha of 0.3, what would the forecast for the next period be using simple exponential smoothing?

Accepted Answer

A) 36.9 
B) 57.5 
C) 60.5 
D) 62.5 
E) 65.5 
A) 36.9 
B) 57.5 
C) 60.5 
D) 62.5 
E) 65.5

Question 16

Exponential smoothing adds a percentage (called alpha)of the last period's forecast to estimate the next period's demand.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 17

Detecting nonrandomness in errors can be done using:

Accepted Answer

A) MSEs. 
B) MAPs. 
C) control charts. 
D) correlation coefficients. 
E) strategies. 
A) MSEs. 
B) MAPs. 
C) control charts. 
D) correlation coefficients. 
E) strategies.

Question 18

The owner of Darkest Tans Unlimited in a local mall is forecasting this month's (October's)demand for the one new tanning booth based on the following historical data:
 
What is the monthly rate of change (slope)of the least squares trend line for these data?

Accepted Answer

A) 320 
B) 102 
C) 8 
D) −0.4 
E) −8 
A) 320 
B) 102 
C) 8 
D) −0.4 
E) −8

Question 19

Which of the following is not a type of judgmental forecasting?

Accepted Answer

A) executive opinions 
B) sales force opinions 
C) consumer surveys 
D) the Delphi method 
E) time series analysis 
A) executive opinions 
B) sales force opinions 
C) consumer surveys 
D) the Delphi method 
E) time series analysis

Question 20

A manager uses the following equation to predict monthly receipts: Y t = 40,000 + 150t. What is the forecast for July if t = 0 in April of this year?

Accepted Answer

A) 40,450 
B) 40,600 
C) 42,100 
D) 42,250 
E) 42,400 
A) 40,450 
B) 40,600 
C) 42,100 
D) 42,250 
E) 42,400

Forecasting techniques that are based on time-series data assume that future values of the series will duplicate past values.

Which of the following mechanisms for enhancing profitability is most likely to result from improving short-term forecast performance?

Bias is measured by the ratio of the cumulative sum of forecast errors to the mean absolute deviation (MAD).

The more novel a new product or service design is, the more forecasters have to rely on

Accuracy in forecasting can be measured by:

The use of a control chart assumes that random errors are normally distributed about a mean of zero.

Given the following historical data and weights of 0.5, 0.3, and 0.2, what is the three-period moving average forecast for period 5?

The naive forecast is limited in its application to series that reflect no trend or seasonality.

Moving average forecasting techniques do the following:

A forecast based on the previous forecast plus a percentage of the forecast error is:

A control chart involves setting action limits for cumulative forecast error.

The primary difference between seasonality and cycles is:

A concert promoter is forecasting this year's attendance for one of his concerts based on the following historical data: What is this year's forecast using the naive approach?

The mean absolute deviation is used to:

Given an actual demand of 59, a previous forecast of 64, and an alpha of 0.3, what would the forecast for the next period be using simple exponential smoothing?

Exponential smoothing adds a percentage (called alpha)of the last period's forecast to estimate the next period's demand.

Detecting nonrandomness in errors can be done using:

The owner of Darkest Tans Unlimited in a local mall is forecasting this month's (October's)demand for the one new tanning booth based on the following historical data: What is the monthly rate of change (slope)of the least squares trend line for these data?

Which of the following is not a type of judgmental forecasting?

A manager uses the following equation to predict monthly receipts: Y _t = 40,000 + 150t. What is the forecast for July if t = 0 in April of this year?

Introduction to Operations Management

Competitiveness, Strategy, and Productivity

Product and Service Design

Strategic Capacity Planning for Products and Services

Process Selection and Facility Layout

Work Design and Measurement

Location Planning and Analysis

Management of Quality

Quality Control

Aggregate Planning and Master Scheduling

Inventory Management

MRP and ERP

Jit and Lean Operations

Supply Chain Management

Scheduling

Project Management

Management of Waiting Lines

Linear Programming

Filters

Exam 3: Forecasting

Forecasting techniques that are based on time-series data assume that future values of the series will duplicate past values.

Which of the following mechanisms for enhancing profitability is most likely to result from improving short-term forecast performance?

Bias is measured by the ratio of the cumulative sum of forecast errors to the mean absolute deviation (MAD).

The more novel a new product or service design is, the more forecasters have to rely on

Accuracy in forecasting can be measured by:

The use of a control chart assumes that random errors are normally distributed about a mean of zero.

Given the following historical data and weights of 0.5, 0.3, and 0.2, what is the three-period moving average forecast for period 5?

The naive forecast is limited in its application to series that reflect no trend or seasonality.

Moving average forecasting techniques do the following:

A forecast based on the previous forecast plus a percentage of the forecast error is:

A control chart involves setting action limits for cumulative forecast error.

The primary difference between seasonality and cycles is:

A concert promoter is forecasting this year's attendance for one of his concerts based on the following historical data: What is this year's forecast using the naive approach?

The mean absolute deviation is used to:

Given an actual demand of 59, a previous forecast of 64, and an alpha of 0.3, what would the forecast for the next period be using simple exponential smoothing?

Exponential smoothing adds a percentage (called alpha)of the last period's forecast to estimate the next period's demand.

Detecting nonrandomness in errors can be done using:

The owner of Darkest Tans Unlimited in a local mall is forecasting this month's (October's)demand for the one new tanning booth based on the following historical data: What is the monthly rate of change (slope)of the least squares trend line for these data?

Which of the following is not a type of judgmental forecasting?

A manager uses the following equation to predict monthly receipts: Y t = 40,000 + 150t. What is the forecast for July if t = 0 in April of this year?

Introduction to Operations Management

Competitiveness, Strategy, and Productivity

Product and Service Design

Strategic Capacity Planning for Products and Services

Process Selection and Facility Layout

Work Design and Measurement

Location Planning and Analysis

Management of Quality

Quality Control

Aggregate Planning and Master Scheduling

Inventory Management

MRP and ERP

Jit and Lean Operations

Supply Chain Management

Scheduling

Project Management

Management of Waiting Lines

Linear Programming

Filters

A manager uses the following equation to predict monthly receipts: Y _t = 40,000 + 150t. What is the forecast for July if t = 0 in April of this year?