Question 1

A consumer survey is an easy and sure way to obtain accurate input from future customers since most people enjoy participating in surveys.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 2

Forecasting techniques generally assume:

Accepted Answer

A) the absence of randomness. 
B) continuity of some underlying causal system. 
C) a linear relationship between time and demand. 
D) accuracy that increases the farther out in time the forecast projects. 
E) accuracy that is better when individual items, rather than groups of items, are being considered. 
A) the absence of randomness. 
B) continuity of some underlying causal system. 
C) a linear relationship between time and demand. 
D) accuracy that increases the farther out in time the forecast projects. 
E) accuracy that is better when individual items, rather than groups of items, are being considered.

Question 3

Forecasts for groups of items tend to be less accurate than forecasts for individual items because forecasts for individual items don't include as many influencing factors.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 4

Trend-adjusted exponential smoothing requires selection of two smoothing constants.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 5

Professor Very Busy needs to allocate time next week to include time for office hours. He needs to forecast the number of students who will seek appointments. He has gathered the following data:
 
What is this week's forecast using trend-adjusted (double)smoothing with alpha = 0.5 and beta = 0.1, if the forecast for last week was 65, the forecast for two weeks ago was 75, and the trend estimate for last week's forecast was −5?

Accepted Answer

A) 49.3 
B) 50.6 
C) 52.0 
D) 65.4 
E) 78.7 
A) 49.3 
B) 50.6 
C) 52.0 
D) 65.4 
E) 78.7

Question 6

Correlation measures the strength and direction of a relationship between variables.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 7

The president of State University wants to forecast student enrollments for this academic year based on the following historical data:
 
What is the forecast for this year using trend-adjusted (double)smoothing with alpha = 0.05 and beta = 0.3, if the forecast for last year was 21,000, the forecast for two years ago was 19,000, and the trend estimate for last year's forecast was 1,500?

Accepted Answer

A) 18,750 
B) 19,500 
C) 21,000 
D) 22,650 
E) 22,800 
A) 18,750 
B) 19,500 
C) 21,000 
D) 22,650 
E) 22,800

Question 8

A concert promoter is forecasting this year's attendance for one of his concerts based on the following historical data:
 
The previous trend line had predicted 18,500 for two years ago, and 19,700 for last year. What was the mean absolute deviation for these forecasts?

Accepted Answer

A) 100 
B) 200 
C) 400 
D) 500 
E) 800 
A) 100 
B) 200 
C) 400 
D) 500 
E) 800

Question 9

Which of the following helps improve supply chain forecasting performance?

Accepted Answer

A) contracts that require supply chain members to formulate long-term forecasts 
B) penalties for supply chain members that adjust forecasts 
C) sharing forecasts or demand data across the supply chain 
D) increasing lead times for critical supply chain members 
E) increasing the number of suppliers at critical junctures in the supply chain 
A) contracts that require supply chain members to formulate long-term forecasts 
B) penalties for supply chain members that adjust forecasts 
C) sharing forecasts or demand data across the supply chain 
D) increasing lead times for critical supply chain members 
E) increasing the number of suppliers at critical junctures in the supply chain

Question 10

Which of the following is used for constructing a control chart?

Accepted Answer

A) mean absolute deviation 
B) mean squared error 
C) tracking signal 
D) bias 
E) MAPE 
A) mean absolute deviation 
B) mean squared error 
C) tracking signal 
D) bias 
E) MAPE

Question 11

MAD is equal to the square root of MSE, which is why we calculate the easier MSE and then calculate the more difficult MAD.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 12

Given forecast errors of −5, −10, and +15, the MAD is:

Accepted Answer

A) 0. 
B) 10. 
C) 30. 
D) 175. 
E) 225. 
A) 0. 
B) 10. 
C) 30. 
D) 175. 
E) 225.

Question 13

In the additive model for seasonality, seasonality is expressed as a ______________ adjustment to the average; in the multiplicative model, seasonality is expressed as a __________ adjustment to the average.

Accepted Answer

A) quantity; percentage 
B) percentage; quantity 
C) quantity; quantity 
D) percentage; percentage 
E) qualitative; quantitative 
A) quantity; percentage 
B) percentage; quantity 
C) quantity; quantity 
D) percentage; percentage 
E) qualitative; quantitative

Question 14

The best forecast is not necessarily the most accurate.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 15

One reason for using the Delphi method in forecasting is to:

Accepted Answer

A) reduce the risk that one individual's opinion will prevail. 
B) achieve a high degree of accuracy. 
C) maintain accountability and responsibility. 
D) be able to replicate results. 
E) prevent hurt feelings. 
A) reduce the risk that one individual's opinion will prevail. 
B) achieve a high degree of accuracy. 
C) maintain accountability and responsibility. 
D) be able to replicate results. 
E) prevent hurt feelings.

Question 16

A smoothing constant of .1 will cause an exponential smoothing forecast to react more quickly to a sudden change than a smoothing constant value of .3.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 17

Inaccurate _____ can lead to excess and/or shortages throughout the organization and the supply chain.

Accepted Answer

A) planning 
B) forecasts 
C) ordering 
D) capacity 
E) deliveries 
A) planning 
B) forecasts 
C) ordering 
D) capacity 
E) deliveries

Question 18

The president of State University wants to forecast student enrollments for this academic year based on the following historical data:
 
What is the forecast for this year using the least squares trend line for these data?

Accepted Answer

A) 18,750 
B) 19,500 
C) 21,000 
D) 22,650 
E) 22,800 
A) 18,750 
B) 19,500 
C) 21,000 
D) 22,650 
E) 22,800

Question 19

Which of the following might be used to develop an estimate of the cyclical component of a forecast?

Accepted Answer

A) leading variable 
B) mean squared error 
C) Delphi technique 
D) exponential smoothing 
E) mean absolute deviation 
A) leading variable 
B) mean squared error 
C) Delphi technique 
D) exponential smoothing 
E) mean absolute deviation

Question 20

Which term most closely relates to associative forecasting techniques?

Accepted Answer

A) time series data 
B) expert opinions 
C) Delphi technique 
D) consumer survey 
E) predictor variables 
A) time series data 
B) expert opinions 
C) Delphi technique 
D) consumer survey 
E) predictor variables

A consumer survey is an easy and sure way to obtain accurate input from future customers since most people enjoy participating in surveys.

Forecasting techniques generally assume:

Forecasts for groups of items tend to be less accurate than forecasts for individual items because forecasts for individual items don't include as many influencing factors.

Trend-adjusted exponential smoothing requires selection of two smoothing constants.

Correlation measures the strength and direction of a relationship between variables.

A concert promoter is forecasting this year's attendance for one of his concerts based on the following historical data: The previous trend line had predicted 18,500 for two years ago, and 19,700 for last year. What was the mean absolute deviation for these forecasts?

Which of the following helps improve supply chain forecasting performance?

Which of the following is used for constructing a control chart?

MAD is equal to the square root of MSE, which is why we calculate the easier MSE and then calculate the more difficult MAD.

Given forecast errors of −5, −10, and +15, the MAD is:

In the additive model for seasonality, seasonality is expressed as a ____ adjustment to the average; in the multiplicative model, seasonality is expressed as a adjustment to the average.

The best forecast is not necessarily the most accurate.

One reason for using the Delphi method in forecasting is to:

A smoothing constant of .1 will cause an exponential smoothing forecast to react more quickly to a sudden change than a smoothing constant value of .3.

Inaccurate _____ can lead to excess and/or shortages throughout the organization and the supply chain.

The president of State University wants to forecast student enrollments for this academic year based on the following historical data: What is the forecast for this year using the least squares trend line for these data?

Which of the following might be used to develop an estimate of the cyclical component of a forecast?

Which term most closely relates to associative forecasting techniques?

Introduction to Operations Management

Competitiveness, Strategy, and Productivity

Product and Service Design

Strategic Capacity Planning for Products and Services

Process Selection and Facility Layout

Work Design and Measurement

Location Planning and Analysis

Management of Quality

Quality Control

Aggregate Planning and Master Scheduling

Inventory Management

MRP and ERP

Jit and Lean Operations

Supply Chain Management

Scheduling

Project Management

Management of Waiting Lines

Linear Programming

Filters

Exam 3: Forecasting

A consumer survey is an easy and sure way to obtain accurate input from future customers since most people enjoy participating in surveys.

Forecasting techniques generally assume:

Forecasts for groups of items tend to be less accurate than forecasts for individual items because forecasts for individual items don't include as many influencing factors.

Trend-adjusted exponential smoothing requires selection of two smoothing constants.

Correlation measures the strength and direction of a relationship between variables.

A concert promoter is forecasting this year's attendance for one of his concerts based on the following historical data: The previous trend line had predicted 18,500 for two years ago, and 19,700 for last year. What was the mean absolute deviation for these forecasts?

Which of the following helps improve supply chain forecasting performance?

Which of the following is used for constructing a control chart?

MAD is equal to the square root of MSE, which is why we calculate the easier MSE and then calculate the more difficult MAD.

Given forecast errors of −5, −10, and +15, the MAD is:

In the additive model for seasonality, seasonality is expressed as a ______________ adjustment to the average; in the multiplicative model, seasonality is expressed as a __________ adjustment to the average.

The best forecast is not necessarily the most accurate.

One reason for using the Delphi method in forecasting is to:

A smoothing constant of .1 will cause an exponential smoothing forecast to react more quickly to a sudden change than a smoothing constant value of .3.

Inaccurate _____ can lead to excess and/or shortages throughout the organization and the supply chain.

The president of State University wants to forecast student enrollments for this academic year based on the following historical data: What is the forecast for this year using the least squares trend line for these data?

Which of the following might be used to develop an estimate of the cyclical component of a forecast?

Which term most closely relates to associative forecasting techniques?

Introduction to Operations Management

Competitiveness, Strategy, and Productivity

Product and Service Design

Strategic Capacity Planning for Products and Services

Process Selection and Facility Layout

Work Design and Measurement

Location Planning and Analysis

Management of Quality

Quality Control

Aggregate Planning and Master Scheduling

Inventory Management

MRP and ERP

Jit and Lean Operations

Supply Chain Management

Scheduling

Project Management

Management of Waiting Lines

Linear Programming

Filters

In the additive model for seasonality, seasonality is expressed as a ____ adjustment to the average; in the multiplicative model, seasonality is expressed as a adjustment to the average.