Question 1

A fundamental distinction between trend projection and linear regression is that:

Accepted Answer

A)  trend projection uses least squares while linear regression does not. 
B)  only linear regression can have a negative slope. 
C)  in trend projection the independent variable is time; in linear regression the independent variable need not be time, but can be any variable with explanatory power. 
D)  trend projection can be a function of several variables, while linear regression can only be a function of one variable. 
E)  trend projection uses two smoothing constants, not just one. 
A)  trend projection uses least squares while linear regression does not. 
B)  only linear regression can have a negative slope. 
C)  in trend projection the independent variable is time; in linear regression the independent variable need not be time, but can be any variable with explanatory power. 
D)  trend projection can be a function of several variables, while linear regression can only be a function of one variable. 
E)  trend projection uses two smoothing constants, not just one.

Question 2

If Brandon Edward were working to develop a forecast using a moving averages approach, but he noticed a detectable trend in the historical data, he should:

Accepted Answer

A)  use weights to place more emphasis on recent data. 
B)  use weights to minimize the importance of the trend. 
C)  change to an associative multiple regression approach. 
D)  use a simple moving average. 
E)  change to a qualitative approach. 
A)  use weights to place more emphasis on recent data. 
B)  use weights to minimize the importance of the trend. 
C)  change to an associative multiple regression approach. 
D)  use a simple moving average. 
E)  change to a qualitative approach.

Question 3

The fundamental difference between cycles and seasonality is the:

Accepted Answer

A)  duration of the repeating patterns. 
B)  magnitude of the variation. 
C)  ability to attribute the pattern to a cause. 
D)  all of the these 
E)  none of the these 
A)  duration of the repeating patterns. 
B)  magnitude of the variation. 
C)  ability to attribute the pattern to a cause. 
D)  all of the these 
E)  none of the these

Question 4

Taco Bell's custom employee scheduling practices are partly the result of using:

Accepted Answer

A)  point-of-sale computers to track food sales in 15-minute intervals. 
B)  focus forecasting. 
C)  a six-day moving average forecasting technique. 
D)  multiple regression. 
E)  mean absolute percentage of error minimization. 
A)  point-of-sale computers to track food sales in 15-minute intervals. 
B)  focus forecasting. 
C)  a six-day moving average forecasting technique. 
D)  multiple regression. 
E)  mean absolute percentage of error minimization.

Question 5

Cycles and random variations are both components of time series.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 6

The quarterly sales for specific educational software over the past three years are given in the following table. Compute the four seasonal factors.

Accepted Answer

The answer of The quarterly sales for specific educational software...

Question 7

What is the forecast for May based on a weighted moving average applied to the following past demand data and using the weights: 4, 3, 3 (largest weight is for most recent data)?

Accepted Answer

3 × 42 + 3 × 47 + 4

Question 8

A skeptical manager asks what long-range forecasts can be used for. Give her three possible uses/purposes.

Accepted Answer

Any three of: planning for new

Question 9

The degree or strength of a relationship between two variables is shown by the:

Accepted Answer

A)  alpha. 
B)  mean. 
C)  mean absolute deviation. 
D)  coefficient of correlation. 
E)  cumulative error. 
A)  alpha. 
B)  mean. 
C)  mean absolute deviation. 
D)  coefficient of correlation. 
E)  cumulative error.

Question 10

________ forecasts address the business cycle by predicting inflation rates, money supplies, housing starts, and other planning indicators.

Accepted Answer

The answer of ________ forecasts address the business cycle by...

Question 11

One use of short-range forecasts is to determine:

Accepted Answer

A)  planning for new products. 
B)  cash budgeting. 
C)  research and development plans. 
D)  facility location. 
E)  production levels. 
A)  planning for new products. 
B)  cash budgeting. 
C)  research and development plans. 
D)  facility location. 
E)  production levels.

Question 12

If two variables were perfectly correlated, what would the coefficient of correlation r equal?

Accepted Answer

A)  0 
B)  -1 
C)  1 
D)  B or C 
E)  none of these 
A)  0 
B)  -1 
C)  1 
D)  B or C 
E)  none of these

Question 13

A(n) ________ forecast uses an average of the most recent periods of data to forecast the next period.

Accepted Answer

moving ave

Question 14

The major components of a time series are all of the following EXCEPT:

Accepted Answer

A)  seasonality. 
B)  inflation. 
C)  trend. 
D)  cycles. 
E)  random variations. 
A)  seasonality. 
B)  inflation. 
C)  trend. 
D)  cycles. 
E)  random variations.

Question 15

Which time-series model below assumes that demand in the next period will be equal to the most recent period's forecast?

Accepted Answer

A)  naive approach 
B)  moving average approach 
C)  weighted moving average approach 
D)  exponential smoothing approach with α = 0 
E)  trend projection 
A)  naive approach 
B)  moving average approach 
C)  weighted moving average approach 
D)  exponential smoothing approach with α = 0 
E)  trend projection

Question 16

The jury of executive opinion forecasting method formally solicits input from customers and potential customers.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 17

Given an actual demand this period of 67, a forecast for this period of 58, and an alpha of 0.3, what would the forecast for the next period be using exponential smoothing?

Accepted Answer

A)  55.3 
B)  57.1 
C)  58.9 
D)  61.0 
E)  60.7 
A)  55.3 
B)  57.1 
C)  58.9 
D)  61.0 
E)  60.7

Question 18

The smaller the absolute tracking signal, the better the forecast is performing.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 19

Given forecast errors of -1, 4, 4, and -3, what is the mean absolute deviation?

Accepted Answer

A)  1 
B)  3 
C)  4 
D)  8 
E)  12 
A)  1 
B)  3 
C)  4 
D)  8 
E)  12

Question 20

Distinguish between a weighted moving average model and an exponential smoothing model.

Accepted Answer

Exponential smoothing is a weighted movi

Exam 4: Forecasting

A fundamental distinction between trend projection and linear regression is that:

If Brandon Edward were working to develop a forecast using a moving averages approach, but he noticed a detectable trend in the historical data, he should:

The fundamental difference between cycles and seasonality is the:

Taco Bell's custom employee scheduling practices are partly the result of using:

Cycles and random variations are both components of time series.

The quarterly sales for specific educational software over the past three years are given in the following table. Compute the four seasonal factors.

What is the forecast for May based on a weighted moving average applied to the following past demand data and using the weights: 4, 3, 3 (largest weight is for most recent data)?

A skeptical manager asks what long-range forecasts can be used for. Give her three possible uses/purposes.

The degree or strength of a relationship between two variables is shown by the:

________ forecasts address the business cycle by predicting inflation rates, money supplies, housing starts, and other planning indicators.

One use of short-range forecasts is to determine:

If two variables were perfectly correlated, what would the coefficient of correlation r equal?

A(n) ________ forecast uses an average of the most recent periods of data to forecast the next period.

The major components of a time series are all of the following EXCEPT:

Which time-series model below assumes that demand in the next period will be equal to the most recent period's forecast?

The jury of executive opinion forecasting method formally solicits input from customers and potential customers.

Given an actual demand this period of 67, a forecast for this period of 58, and an alpha of 0.3, what would the forecast for the next period be using exponential smoothing?

The smaller the absolute tracking signal, the better the forecast is performing.

Given forecast errors of -1, 4, 4, and -3, what is the mean absolute deviation?

Distinguish between a weighted moving average model and an exponential smoothing model.

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