Question 1

Yamaha manufactures which set of products with complementary demands to address seasonal variations?

Accepted Answer

A)  golf clubs and skis 
B)  swimming suits and winter jackets 
C)  jet skis and snowmobiles 
D)  pianos and guitars 
E)  ice skates and water skis 
A)  golf clubs and skis 
B)  swimming suits and winter jackets 
C)  jet skis and snowmobiles 
D)  pianos and guitars 
E)  ice skates and water skis

Question 2

Trend refers to a data pattern that repeats itself after a period of days, weeks, months, or quarters.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 3

In trend projection, a negative regression slope is mathematically impossible.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 4

A forecast based on the previous forecast plus a percentage of the forecast error is a(n):

Accepted Answer

A)  qualitative forecast. 
B)  naive forecast. 
C)  moving average forecast. 
D)  weighted moving average forecast. 
E)  exponential smoothing forecast. 
A)  qualitative forecast. 
B)  naive forecast. 
C)  moving average forecast. 
D)  weighted moving average forecast. 
E)  exponential smoothing forecast.

Question 5

Seasonal indices adjust raw data for patterns that repeat at regular time intervals.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 6

Which of the following is NOT a type of qualitative forecasting?

Accepted Answer

A)  jury of executive opinion 
B)  sales force composite 
C)  market survey 
D)  Delphi method 
E)  moving average 
A)  jury of executive opinion 
B)  sales force composite 
C)  market survey 
D)  Delphi method 
E)  moving average

Question 7

What forecasting systems combine the intelligence of multiple supply chain partners?

Accepted Answer

A)  FORE 
B)  MULTISUP 
C)  CPFR 
D)  SUPPLY 
E)  MSCP 
A)  FORE 
B)  MULTISUP 
C)  CPFR 
D)  SUPPLY 
E)  MSCP

Question 8

Demand for individual products can be driven by product life cycles.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 9

Given an actual demand this period of 103, a forecast value for this period of 99, and an alpha of .6, what is the exponential smoothing forecast for next period?

Accepted Answer

A)  96.6 
B)  97.4 
C)  100.6 
D)  101.4 
E)  -105.4 
A)  96.6 
B)  97.4 
C)  100.6 
D)  101.4 
E)  -105.4

Question 10

A six-month moving average forecast is generally better than a three-month moving average forecast if demand:

Accepted Answer

A)  is rather stable. 
B)  has been changing due to recent promotional efforts. 
C)  follows a downward trend. 
D)  exceeds one million units per year. 
E)  follows an upward trend. 
A)  is rather stable. 
B)  has been changing due to recent promotional efforts. 
C)  follows a downward trend. 
D)  exceeds one million units per year. 
E)  follows an upward trend.

Question 11

Forecasts are usually classified by time horizon into which three categories?

Accepted Answer

A)  short-range, medium-range, and long-range 
B)  finance/accounting, marketing, and operations 
C)  strategic, tactical, and operational 
D)  exponential smoothing, regression, and time series 
E)  departmental, organizational, and industrial 
A)  short-range, medium-range, and long-range 
B)  finance/accounting, marketing, and operations 
C)  strategic, tactical, and operational 
D)  exponential smoothing, regression, and time series 
E)  departmental, organizational, and industrial

Question 12

The sales force composite forecasting method relies on salespersons' estimates of expected sales.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 13

Positive tracking signals indicate that the forecast is greater than demand.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 14

Regression lines graphically depict "cause-and-effect" relationships.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 15

A skeptical manager asks what short-range forecasts can be used for. Give her three possible uses/purposes.

Accepted Answer

Any three of: planning purchas

Question 16

Gradual upward or downward movement of data over time is called:

Accepted Answer

A)  seasonality. 
B)  a cycle. 
C)  a trend. 
D)  exponential variation. 
E)  random variation. 
A)  seasonality. 
B)  a cycle. 
C)  a trend. 
D)  exponential variation. 
E)  random variation.

Question 17

The last four weekly values of sales were 80, 100, 105, and 90 units. The last four forecasts were 60, 80, 95, and 75 units. These forecasts illustrate:

Accepted Answer

A)  qualitative methods. 
B)  adaptive smoothing. 
C)  slope. 
D)  bias. 
E)  trend projection. 
A)  qualitative methods. 
B)  adaptive smoothing. 
C)  slope. 
D)  bias. 
E)  trend projection.

Question 18

Focus forecasting tries a variety of computer models and selects the best one for a particular application.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 19

Increasing the number of periods in a moving average will accomplish greater smoothing, but at the expense of:

Accepted Answer

A)  manager understanding. 
B)  accuracy. 
C)  stability. 
D)  sensitivity to real changes in the data. 
E)  All of the these are diminished when the number of periods increases. 
A)  manager understanding. 
B)  accuracy. 
C)  stability. 
D)  sensitivity to real changes in the data. 
E)  All of the these are diminished when the number of periods increases.

Question 20

Weekly sales of ten-grain bread at the local organic food market are provided in the table below. Based on these data, forecast week 9 using a four-week moving average.
Week Sales
1 415
2 389
3 420
4 382
5 410
6 432
7 425
8 421

Accepted Answer

(410 + 432

Exam 4: Forecasting

Yamaha manufactures which set of products with complementary demands to address seasonal variations?

Trend refers to a data pattern that repeats itself after a period of days, weeks, months, or quarters.

In trend projection, a negative regression slope is mathematically impossible.

A forecast based on the previous forecast plus a percentage of the forecast error is a(n):

Seasonal indices adjust raw data for patterns that repeat at regular time intervals.

Which of the following is NOT a type of qualitative forecasting?

What forecasting systems combine the intelligence of multiple supply chain partners?

Demand for individual products can be driven by product life cycles.

Given an actual demand this period of 103, a forecast value for this period of 99, and an alpha of .6, what is the exponential smoothing forecast for next period?

A six-month moving average forecast is generally better than a three-month moving average forecast if demand:

Forecasts are usually classified by time horizon into which three categories?

The sales force composite forecasting method relies on salespersons' estimates of expected sales.

Positive tracking signals indicate that the forecast is greater than demand.

Regression lines graphically depict "cause-and-effect" relationships.

A skeptical manager asks what short-range forecasts can be used for. Give her three possible uses/purposes.

Gradual upward or downward movement of data over time is called:

The last four weekly values of sales were 80, 100, 105, and 90 units. The last four forecasts were 60, 80, 95, and 75 units. These forecasts illustrate:

Focus forecasting tries a variety of computer models and selects the best one for a particular application.

Increasing the number of periods in a moving average will accomplish greater smoothing, but at the expense of:

Weekly sales of ten-grain bread at the local organic food market are provided in the table below. Based on these data, forecast week 9 using a four-week moving average. Week Sales 1 415 2 389 3 420 4 382 5 410 6 432 7 425 8 421

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